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It is likely the deaths are related to tribal and drug trafficking issues. The chain of extraordinary events began on 1 March. The assassinated president Vieira (from the minority Papel ethnic group) has long had a tense relationship with the army dominated by officers from the majority Balanta ethnic group including chief of staff, Batista Tagme Na Wai. So it was no surprise Vieira was accused when Na Wai was killed in an explosion that destroyed part of the military headquarters on Sunday evening. While no one claimed responsibility for the blast, many armed forces members placed the blame squarely on the president. Renegade troops left Mansoa barracks, 60km north of Bissau, late on Sunday, to with a mission to "liquidate President Vieira". They first released seven soldiers who carried out a failed attack on the 69 year old Vieira last year. They then attacked Vieira as he tried to flee his presidential home for the safety of the Angolan embassy. He was savagely beaten before being shot several times in the throat and face.
The United Nations Security Council issued its usual platitude of condemnation about the assassinations. The council called on the country’s government to bring the killer to justice and pleaded for calm and restraint on the streets. It urged all parties to resolve their disputes through political and peaceful means within the framework of its democratic institutions and opposed any attempt to change the Government through unconstitutional means. However, despite these pious calls, the UN has not offered any practical help to the struggling nation.
Chronically poor Guinea-Bissau has been the victim of political instability and corruption ever since it won unilateral independence from colonial masters Portugal in 1974. It was ruled by a junta for ten years and the first multi-party elections did not occur until 1994. But the military has intervened several times since then, most notably in a civil war which ripped the country apart in 1998-1999. That war saw the overthrow of Joao Vieira's first term of office but he was returned to power in 2005. His regime was destabilised by parliamentary elections in November 2008 which was won by opposition parties. Vieira survived a coup attempt that same month when renegade soldiers launched a pre-dawn attack on his residence.
Writing in the Christian Science Monitor, Scott Baldauf says this week’s double assassinations are a troubling sign for a region “with weak institutions for self-government and strong incentives for corruption”. The country of 1.5 million population is one of the poorest in the world, ranked the 175th out of 177 nations in the U.N. Development Program's Human Development Index. Apart from cashew nuts, its main industry is drugs. Guinea-Bissau is a transit point for the cocaine trade between South America and Europe. With no navy to speak of, Colombian drug cartels are free to land on islands off the coast before distributing their cargo to impoverished African migrants who ferry the drugs north to Europe. “Government corruption, fed by poor government salaries at the bottom and uncertain political leadership at the top, means that Guinea Bissau has few tools to stop the drug trafficking,” says Baldauf.
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