Red Cross say Kyrgyzstan situation is "an immense crisis"

The International Committee of the Red Cross say at least 100,000 people have been displaced from their homes as a result of the crisis in southern Kyrgyzstan. An ICRC team which arrived in the remote area yesterday said Uzbek authorities have registered 75,000 adult refugees and an unknown number of children in Uzbekistan while tens of thousands remain stranded on the Kyrgyz side of the border. "We've seen for ourselves and also heard about pockets of displaced people ranging from several hundred to several thousand in number, so it's impossible to say with any certainty exactly how many people have been forced to flee their homes,” said Séverine Chappaz, the ICRC's deputy head of mission in Kyrgyzstan. “It's an immense crisis."

ICRC staff visited the main detention centre in Kyrgyzstan’s second biggest city Osh where they delivered food provided by the World Food Programme to around 1,000 detainees. It was part of an emergency WFP operation to deliver food to 13,000 people affected by the humanitarian crisis. WFP said transporting aid from the capital Bishkek was difficult, as roads are not safe and commercial trucking companies are reluctant to risk their vehicles. “This crisis is unfolding rapidly and WFP is mobilising its global expertise to ensure that the vulnerable – particularly women and children – do not suffer,” said WFP’s Executive Director Josette Sheeran. “We implore all sides to ensure humanitarian access to the vulnerable, trapped by the crisis.”

Officially almost 200 people have died in that crisis though the real death toll is likely to be much higher. Osh, the stronghold of former president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, has been the epicentre of violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbek people for a week, though the roots of the violence date back a couple of months. Bakiyev was ousted from government in April in a coup that left 75 dead and hundreds injured in fighting between police and protesters. Ex-Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva said the opposition had taken over the reins of government and driven Bakiyev from office. Otunbeyeva was subsequently installed as interim leader.

However Bakiyev refused to accept the coup despite having lost the support of his Kremlin backers. He was first elected president in 2005 and re-elected in 2009 though there was a strong suspicion of electoral fraud in both elections. After the coup Bakiyev initially fled to Osh before eventually going to Kazakhstan. Bakiyev remained popular in the south of the country and it is not difficult to imagine his supporters being behind some of the violence that erupted spectacularly last week. The new Kyrgyz government was quick to blame Bakiyev for the violence. It said he hired "provocateurs" to instigate the deadly riots and they complained of a lack of international support, saying: "We were left alone with the enemy in the most difficult days."

However Kyrgyzstan’s most difficult days were not entirely Bakiyev’s fault. Clashes erupted on 11 June with the large Uzbek population of the city targeted by gangs. It soon spiralled out of control with possibly a thousand people dying in the clashes. It is not entirely clear who is driving the violence but it is tapping into ancient enmities. Ethnic Uzbeks make up 14 per cent of the country's population of 5.3 million but are almost half the population of Osh and neighbouring Jalal-Abad. In echoes of ethnic conflicts elsewhere, they are also a target being overly represented in the commercial class. Ex-pat Craig Murray in the British Telegraph suggests the violence may have been orchestrated by Moscow to undermine the overly Liberal Otunbeyeva regime.

The Kyrgyz administration has declared a state of emergency in the Osh and Jalal-Abad provinces and the next most important date for the interim regime is 27 June. On that date there will be a constitutional referendum to pave the way for parliamentary elections in October. The new leadership is determined to hold the vote, which it needs in order to entrench its legality. "The situation in Osh is stabilising. We have enough forces," said Azimbek Beknazarov, an interim deputy premier. “We need this [referendum] like air. Everyone who calls themselves a Kyrgyz citizen must vote."

Uzbekistan’s Australian goal

Australia’s 2-0 defeat of Uzbekistan in tonight’s World Cup qualifier was not the only meeting between the countries in the last 24 hours. While the footballers did battle in Sydney, consular officials met in Canberra to further diplomatic contacts. The meeting at deputy Foreign Minister level exchanged views on the situation and prospects of bilateral cooperation in the political, commercial and economic, cultural and humanitarian spheres. Items of mutual interest included the situation in Uzbek neighbour Afghanistan, the prospects of co-operation with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in combating terrorism, and also co-operation within the UN and other international organisations.

The move is consistent with a slow warming of ties between Uzbekistan and the west. There remains a long way to go in the Central Asian country where democracy has been a dirty word for the last two decades. In all that time, it has been ruled by the same autocratic ruler: Islam Karimov. The 70 year old Karimov has crushed all opposition since taking power in 1989 when it was still a Soviet state. He cemented power when Uzbekistan gained independence in 1991 and has since won a succession of fake elections.

There is little hope of change. Last month EIU Views Wire said Karimov is likely to retain his tight grip on power “with few prospects for democratisation or transparency”. The economy is also suffering badly as import demand declines in Russia, its main export market. Despite his age, Karimov is showing no signs of slowing up and continues to brutally suppress all opposition to his reign.

Karimov cracked down on the main opposition party the Sunshine Uzbekistan Coalition. Party leader Sanjar Umarov campaigned for free trade and private ownership of the agricultural industry but he was arrested in 2005 on trumped up charges of embezzlement and money laundering. In 2006 he was sentenced to prison for eight years and was conveniently out of the way for the country’s most recent election in 2007 which Karimov “won” with 88 percent of the vote.

Uzbekistan’s media is also tightly controlled. Internet sites critical of his regime get an error message and journalists who stray from the official line are jailed or killed. Press censorship was increased after events in 2005 at the eastern border town of Andijan when 800 people were killed. The massacre occurred after a mass protest against a sham trial of 23 local businesspeople accused of Islamic extremism. On the first day protesters stormed the jail but when they massed in the central square on the second day, soldiers shot indiscriminately into the crowd.

The killings prompted widespread international criticism. Karimov was so stung by the wave of complaints, he expelled many foreign companies, aid groups and media in retaliation. The EU imposed sanctions but relaxed them in October 2008. This was not because of any improvement in human rights but rather that Europe wants Uzbekistan’s industrial output. The country is the world’s second largest exporter of cotton and the world’s seventh largest exporter of gold. But the profits of these industries are kept by the ruling elites. Conditions in the state-run cotton farms amount to virtual slavery, according to the International Crisis Group.

None of this is a concern to Karimov who continues to strut the geo-political stage. He briefly aligned his nation with the US and provided an air base to help operations in Afghanistan in 2001. But in the wake of the Andijan criticism, Karimov turned to China and Russia for support and purged the defence ministry of pro-US supporters. More recently however, there have been signs of another thaw http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4820 in relations with the US with America being allowed to use the airbase in the southern city of Termez. While Australian and Uzbekistan do not have much in common, yesterday’s meeting is significant in sense it offers another small crack in Uzbekistan’s icy relationship with the west. But it will not totally melt until Karimov dies or is somehow ousted from power.