Will Rukwanzi lead to oil war between Congo and Uganda?

An obscure tiny island is threatening to become a flashpoint between African neighbours Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Ugandan-Congo border bisects Lake Albert, the northernmost of the Great Rift Lakes. But the 160km watery frontier it is difficult to demarcate and police. Border tensions at the lake have been exacerbated as Congo and Uganda tussle for ownership of the tiny island of Rukwanzi which lies at the southern tip of the lake. Although the island is barely three kilometres wide, Rukwanzi is seen as a strategic location for oil exploration which has been going on in the area for several years.

Rukwanzi Island is claimed by both Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Congo’s claim is based on its fishermen who live on the island. Uganda’s claim is based on a 1971 map by its Department of Lands and Surveys indicates that the island is in Uganda, three and a half kilometres away from the boundary line with the Democratic Republic of Congo. In the local language Rutoro, Rukwanzi means ‘shiny bead’. “We were told that it was named that because it hangs on the water and swings like a bead on a person’s chest. It was named at the time when our great-grand-parents were trading in beads,” said local fishmonger Mukirane. “As a child, my mother cautioned me to always take care while fishing at Rukwanzi. Fishermen would fight for fishing space around that place.”

Tensions exacerbated on 4 August when gunmen on Lake Albert attacked a barge operated by Canada's Heritage Oil Corp killing a British geologist. The Briton worked for IMC, the company doing the seismic studies for Heritage Oil. Ugandan troops blamed Congo. "Congolese soldiers crossed into Uganda and attacked the boat between 1:00am and 3:00am," western Uganda army spokesman Lt. Tabaro Kiconco told The New Vision. Our troops also came in and responded. One Congolese soldier was killed in the fire-fight and one was injured."

In the past two weeks, Uganda's western border suffered three cross-border attacks that left three others dead. Now the Ugandan army has threatened to re-enter the Congo to quieten its western border if incursions do not stop and diplomatic efforts fail. "We are using incremental reactions, softer means, talking to each other, trying to persuade [the Congolese government] to see reason," Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga said at the weekend. "If these soft measures do not work, we will take harder options including re-entering Congo."

However not all diplomatic efforts are failing. The two countries announced last week they would re-survey their common border to establish ownership of Rukwanzi in order to end growing border tensions between the two countries. “There is no cause for alarm and the situation is under control,” said Ugandan Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga. “We have agreed to form a joint commission involving officials from Uganda and Congo side to re-survey our borders. This was part of the agreement with DRC President [Joseph Kabila] and we are committed to it.”

Now Congo’s troops have occupied the island. Congolese troops first set up a military detachment on the island in 1993 and have recently beefed up their contingent. They now join the 1,000 residents, mainly Congolese fishermen. Fishermen on the Ugandan side claimed that Congolese armed personnel were routinely harassing them on the lake. "They are ruthless," said a Ugandan fisherman Deo Mugisa. "They will arrest you at gun point, take your boat and fishing net and sometimes fishermen completely disappear."

As well as they oil concerns, border tensions have been increased by a leaked Congolese external security report which notes that Kinshasa is worried that Congo's exiled former Vice President Jean Pierre Bemba might be plotting to resume insurgency against his country from Uganda. Bemba was the leader of the rebel Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC), which was supported by Uganda during the Congolese civil war of 1998-2003. Bemba went into exile in Europe when he refused to disband his security force after his defeat in the 2006 election by President Kabila. Bemba now plans to return to the Congo and some diplomats believe Uganda may continue to support him. The statement of one elder from North Kivu area of Congo after the discovery of oil in 2003 remains prophetic: "We can see war coming on the horizon".

North Pole dancing: Denmark joins the Coldest War

Danish researchers will set sail for the North Pole tomorrow to collect geological data on an underwater ridge they believe is connected to Danish claimed territory in Greenland. The Danish team will collect bathymetric, gravity and seismic data to map the seabed under the ice. The mission is an escalation of tensions around polar mineral explorations tensions in the wake of the similar Russian mission last week.

Although the seabed under the pole is not regarded as part of any single country's territory, Russian explorers planted a flag last Tuesday on the seabed 4,200m below the pole. Russia's most famous explorer, Artur Chilingarov led the expedition to plant a rustproof flag in a capsule on the ocean seabed under the pole. "The Arctic is Russian," Chilingarov said earlier. "We must prove the North Pole is an extension of the Russian coastal shelf”.

The polar zone is believed to hold vast resources of oil and natural gas that will become more accessible as climate change melts the ice cap. Russia and Denmark are two of the five countries with land borders that approach the North Pole. Norway, Canada and the US are the other three. The other countries are less than impressed with Russia’s latest polar manoeuvre. Canadian Foreign Minister Peter Mackay said Russia was behaving like a 15th century explorer. “You can't go around the world and just plant flags and say 'We're claiming this territory',” he said. US Department of State deputy spokesman Tom Casey said: “A metal flag, a rubber flag or a bed sheet on the ocean floor ... doesn't have any legal standing or effect on this claim.”

Nevertheless the US has its own plans to assert its ownership of polar regions. An American Coast Guard icebreaker, the Healy, headed to the Arctic last week to map the sea floor off Alaska. Russia claims this mission shows that the US is actively joining the competition for resources in the Arctic. Larry Mayer, director of the Centre for Coastal and Ocean Mapping at the University of New Hampshire, denies this claim and said the purpose of the Healy’s mapping work was to determine the extent of the continental shelf north of Alaska. "In that area, the country would have rights over the resources of the sea floor and subsurface that would include drilling for oil and gas," he said.

Russia’s claim to the pole is based on an underwater mountain known as the Lomonosov Ridge which it states is an extension of the Russian landmass. This gives Russia a claim to a triangular area up to the pole, allowing it rights due according to the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention. Article 76 of the convention says a state can claim a 200 nautical mile exclusive zone and beyond that up to 150 nautical miles of rights on the seabed. Of most interest to Russia is the key fact is that these distances are measured from where the continental shelf ends. Russia will aim to show that the Lomonosov Ridge, a seam that crosses the seabed from Russia to Greenland, is an extension of Russia’s continental shelf.

As a result of Chilingarov’s mission, Russia has now laid formal claim to a triangle-shaped area of the Arctic Ocean. Its base is formed by the Russian coast from the Kola Peninsula in the west to the tip of the Chukotka Peninsula in the east, across the Bering Strait from Alaska. The apex of this 1.2 million sq km triangle is the North Pole. Russia had traditionally claimed this territory but was forced to drop the claim after it ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1997. The mapping of the Lomosonov is the attempt to win back the territory.

The area under consideration has immense wealth and economic importance. Some estimates have the continental shelf holding about 100 billion tons of oil plus a wealth of fish species. A study by the US Geological Survey (USGS) said 25 percent of all untapped reserves in areas known to contain oil are found north of the Arctic Circle. As most of the Arctic is unexplored that figure is likely to be higher still. "It's very likely there's a great deal of oil and gas out there," said Don Gautier, a research geologist at USGS who is leading an effort to put a number on those reserves. "The real possibility exists that you could have another world class petroleum province like the North Sea."

There is also the matter of the Northern Sea Route, (NSR) the shortest way from Europe to Asia and the Pacific coast of America. The NSR is a sort of North-East passage which runs through the Arctic Ocean along Russia's northern coast and which would become a highway to transport oil and gas from Arctic deposits. The NSR has traditionally been off-limits to international shipping due to difficult ice conditions and the geo-political problems during the Cold War era. Russia officially re-opened the NSR for foreign shipping in 1991, and improved ice-breaking technology is being developed. Although the NSR is impeded by ice and Russian political instability, it avoids the draft limitations of the Suez and Panama canals, as well as the political instability in the Middle East and Panama, and piracy problems in SE Asia. There are also indications that global warming may improve the ice conditions of the NSR.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team suggested in 2004 that the Arctic summer ice cap could melt completely before the end of this century because of global warming. Meanwhile another race is on to protect interests in the polar region. Canada will build up to eight new patrol ships and the US Congress is considering a proposal to build two new heavy polar ships. The US and Canada argue over rights in the North-west Passage, Norway and Russia differ over a disputed region of the Barents Sea, Canada and Denmark are competing over the tiny Hans island off Greenland, the Russian parliament is refusing to ratify a 1990 agreement with the US over the Bering Sea and Denmark is claiming the North Pole itself. A new and dangerous Cold War may be about to begin.