APEC Declaration is another fatal blow for Copenhagen talks

The two-day APEC economic leaders’ summit in Singapore has ended with a leaders’ declaration that promoted free trade but promised little action on climate change three weeks ahead of Copenhagen. Kevin Rudd joined 20 other Pacific Rim leaders in Singapore including US’s Barack Obama and China’s Hu Jintao. The key output phrase was “a new growth paradigm” and support for the recent Pittsburgh G20 commitments for global recovery. But a proposal to include a 50 percent emissions reduction target by 2050 was scrapped under pressure from China. (photo credit Xinhua/Xu Jinquan)

The proposal was in a draft version of the declaration but was removed in the final version. The declaration did acknowledge anthropogenic climate change as one of the biggest global challenges (a fact someone should tell prominent members of Australia’s main opposition party). The Singapore conference embraced recent world statements on climate change at Pittsburgh and L’Aquila and reaffirmed its intention to work towards an “ambitious outcome” in Copenhagen now just 22 days away.

However that looks completely unrealistic with the “50 by 2050” target kyboshed by China and the declaration was reduced to wishy-washy aspirational (ie non-binding) targets. These were a reiteration of the 2007 Sydney targets of reducing energy intensity by at least 25 percent by 2030 and increasing forest cover in the region by at least 20 million hectares of all types of forests by 2020. The conference also welcomed the May 2009 Manado Declaration on climate impact on ocean health – but again this is so far non binding.

The lack of prescribed targets does not bode well for the Copenhagen The APEC nations are responsible for 60 percent of the world’s carbon emissions. According to the Vancouver Sun, the leaders agreed at a breakfast meeting this morning that agreement on a binding treaty will have to wait at least until next year or beyond. They quoted Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper who said there were significant areas of disagreement. "That said, there was a fair consensus…a broader political agreement, is still achievable at Copenhagen and that's what everybody is aiming for,” he said.

But the host of the Copenhagen talks will be bitterly disappointed by the outcome. Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen had flown to Singapore specifically to attend "informal breakfast meeting". Once it was clear to him that China was not going to commit to binding targets, he got Obama’s support for a two-stage process. This would involve a face-saving (but mostly meaningless) political accord at Copenhagen next month and the setting of a new deadline in late 2010 (after Congress has approved Obama’s ETS) for global agreement on targets, levels of funding and verification of commitments.

But even then China will continue to be the main stumbling block. China Daily quotes leader Hu Jintao pushing the idea of “common but differentiated responsibilities”. This is China-speak for ensuring so-called developed countries do more than developing countries to address climate change. Jintao is supporting in this by the Kyoto Protocol and he is right to suggest that the high carbon-usage countries should do their fair share. But this also gives China the excuse to continue its own high-polluting ways well beyond 2012.

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd played down the Singapore disagreements in similar fashion to Stephen Harper. But his praise for the “tenor of the contribution” was undermined by a further weakening in his own tepid response to climate change. The federal government announced today it has excluded agriculture from the cap and trade scheme in a bid to win opposition support for the second reading of the ETS bill later this month. However even this latest move is unlikely to win over the divided Coalition over. Its pro-ETS members are still demanding further concessions in the coal and electricity sectors while anti-ETS members would even vote that down. It is likely that any bill that will pass the house this year will be a trading scheme in name only. In Australia, as everywhere else, national interest will trump the planet’s interest every time.

APEC begins in Sydney

The annual Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum opens today in Sydney. Better known as APEC, the conference will bring together the leaders of US, China, Japan, Russia, Canada and 16 other Pacific countries. The conference will last a week, will attract 10,000 visitors and is costing the Australian taxpayer $300 million. Although Sydney is the host, its people are not invited. The city is fortified with a massive steel and concrete wall to prevent attacks such as car bombing as well as stopping protestors from reaching the venue.

Security is intense for the Sydney conference. NSW has deployed 3,500 police backed by 1,500 soldiers, tanks, water cannon and explosives-detecting dogs. However the outbreak of equine influenza means mounted police won't be used to control protesters. The state government ran media campaigns which urged residents to take a holiday to avoid the city during this week and they declared Friday 7 September a public holiday for Sydney.

APEC was originally an Australian idea. Frustrated at being excluded from local power groups such as ASEAN, then Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke hosted the first ever Asia Pacific ministerial meeting in Canberra in 1989. It was touted as an “informal ministerial-level dialogue group” and 12 countries sent attendees. Its mission was to promote trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific. And because it comprises member economies, not nation states, it allowed China and Taiwan (under the banner “Chinese Taipei”) sit side by side at the APEC table. In 1993 it expanded to become a leaders’ conference with Bill Clinton hosting the first one in Seattle.

APEC covers the Pacific rim countries and currently has 21 member economies in four continents. APEC accounts for more than one-third of the world's population, more than one-half of the world's gross domestic product and more than 40 percent of world trade. Its neo-liberal agenda involves accelerated trade and investment and has been used in the past to reach agreement in tariff reductions in areas such as IT which then forms a precedent for global versions under the auspices of the World Trade Organisation. APEC claims its member economies enjoy lower cost of living on average because reduced trade barriers and a more economically competitive region lowers prices for goods and services.

Among the leaders in town for APEC is Chinese President Hu Jintao. His visit comes as figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show China has overtaken Japan for the first time ever as Australia's biggest trading partner. According to the ABS, Australia's trade with China was worth US$41.4 billion in the 12 months to July, while trade with Japan was $40.7 billion. Hu is expected to witness the signing of a gas sales agreement between Australia’s Woodside and potential Chinese customers. At APEC, Hu will also outline a climate change initiative on the sustainable management of forests and will propose to restart the stalled Doha Round of global trade liberalisation talks.

China is taking growing leadership of APEC as the US remains preoccupied with Iraq. President Bush hasn’t helped this impression by cutting short his stay at this year’s summit in order to hear US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, testify to Congress. According to former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, the US is neglecting Asia. "We're playing foreign policy at the moment like 5-year-olds play soccer,” he told the Australian newspaper. “Everyone is going after the ball at once rather than covering the whole field.”

Bush ally and conference host John Howard has his sights firmed placed on the APEC agenda. He is hopeful APEC leaders will decide on an aspirational "global goal" to reduce greenhouse gases at this week's historic meeting. However he also ruled out any binding targets. Howard, who refused to sign the Kyoto protocol, blamed developing countries for failing to agree on binding targets. Howard said he wanted to develop a post-Kyoto consensus that attracts participation by all emitters. However his position was rejected as indecisive by Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd. "If you're going to be serious about climate change,” he said, “you must have a national greenhouse gas emission target for Australia”. With a federal election to follow in the next two months, Rudd may soon have the opportunity to set his own targets.