Arias appeals for more time to end Honduras stalemate

(Picture: Zelaya in the stetson in conversation with Arias in less stressful times.) Costa Rica President Oscar Arias has asked for more time to resolve Honduras’s political stalemate and warned that civil war was possible if the three-week crisis isn’t ended soon. Arias has met separately with ousted president Manuel Zelaya and his replacement Roberto Micheletti in the Costa Rican capital San Jose but has been unable to get either man to agree to the seven-point solution he presented on Saturday. “I want to take 72 hours to work more intensely,” said Arias. Because the alternative he said was “civil war and bloodshed that the Honduran people don’t deserve.”

Arias may be grandstanding but he does have form as a peacekeeper. He won the 1987 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in getting five central American presidents to sign the Esquipulas peace accord in Guatemala. His seven point plan for Honduras calls for the formation of a national reconciliation government to be led Zelaya. It would also move forward planned elections to October from November and offer political amnesty to those involved in the crisis. But neither the old nor the new leader have been particularly helpful. Zelaya threatened to resort to other means if he did not get his way while Micheletti repeated his demand that Zelaya not return to power before he agrees to stand down.

The Council for Hemisphere Affairs says negotiation fatigue is beginning to make itself evident among the two sides after three weeks of deadlock. The crisis started on 28 June, the day Zelaya had scheduled a controversial non-binding plebiscite to determine if citizens should vote in November elections to change the constitution. Zelaya claimed the plebiscite was a merely a survey, but his opponents saw it as a means of giving him a second term of government when his current term expires in 2010.

Zelaya had sacked the head of the armed forces who refused to give logistical support for the vote. The Supreme Court overruled him, saying the army chief should be reinstated. On the morning of the vote, over 200 troops arrived at his home and ordered him to surrender on pain of death. They drove him to the airport and put him on a plane to neighbouring Costa Rica.

Later that day, Congress produced what it claimed was Zelaya’s letter of resignation. Speaker and constitutionally second in line to the presidency, Roberto Micheletti, was sworn in as interim leader. The new government issued arrest orders against Zelaya on 18 charges that include betrayal of the country and failure to fulfil his duties. Protests against the coup began immediately with several thousand pro-Zelaya supporters gathering near the Presidential Palace in Tegucigalpa. On 2 July, social organisations of workers, farmers and citizens held a massive march to deliver a message of gratitude for support for democracy at the UN office. After two days, Congress had enough and approved a decree to enforce a curfew and declare a “state of exception” which banned meetings, curtailed travel, justify search without warrants and imposed restrictions on the media.

Zelaya continues to have the support of the OAS (Organisation of American States) but is no closer to getting home. On 5 July he tried to fly back home but his plane was blocked from landing. While Zelaya is a wealthy land-owning cattle baron and timber merchant he derives most of his support from Honduras’s poorest people. Almost half the population survives on $2 a day or less with one in five considered undernourished.

Honduras is hopeless corrupt, one of the least transparent countries in Latin America and is extremely dependent on US and multilateral organisations for financial support. The US suspended a significant amount of aid to Honduras in support of Zelaya but has been reluctantly to get fully involved in the crisis. In a statement after the coup, President Obama called on all sides to respect democratic norms and the rule of law. “Any existing tensions and disputes must be resolved peacefully through dialogue free from any outside interference,” he said. The coup government has interpreted this as a green light to continue its rule.

Bangladesh mutiny is test of Sheikh Hasina's government

Long running complaints between branches of Bangladesh’s military has broken out into full scale mutiny in the last two days that claimed at least 50 lives. What began as a shootout in the capital Dhaka has spread to towns across the country. While the main reason for the mutiny is a pay dispute, it is also likely be a test of power for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who has only been in the job a month. Ranjit Bhaskar says the fact that the army had to be called out to quell the uprising just weeks after December's election is “an important reminder that the country's political situation remains complex and fragile despite the restoration of democratic rule”.

Nevertheless the most proximate cause is a pay dispute involving the paramilitary Bangladesh Rifles (BDR). The standoff at the BDR headquarters began yesterday when troops took dozens of high-ranking officers and military brass hostage after a gun battle erupted between rebels and loyal police and troops that killed 50 people. The dead included passers-by who were caught in mortar fire when the violence spread to the nearby streets. Afterwards, the BDR had reportedly accepted an offer of amnesty from the prime minister and agreed to lay down arms earlier on Thursday. But the fighting resumed later in the day.

The BDR is the country’s border security and anti-smuggling force. Known by the grandiose nickname of “The Vigilant Sentinels of Our National Frontier”, the force was set up after partition in 1947 as a descendent of the British East Pakistani Rifles. In 1971 it fought for the liberation of Bangladesh from West Pakistan and emerged as the new country’s leading paramilitary force. There is confusion over exactly how big the force is. The BBC thinks it is 40,000. The Guardian today was reporting 42,000 posted across 64 camps whereas Al Jazeera claim there are “50,000 paramilitary soldiers”. Meanwhile, BDR’s own website says they have a total manpower of 65,000 troops.

Whatever the size, it is a significant security organisation that the government needs to control. According to police reports, BDR members had revolted in 12 border districts which represents a quarter of the zones where they are stationed. The initial revolt started in the capital Dhaka and then fanned outwards. One local police chief reported heavy fighting at a BDR training centre in the southeastern town of Satkania. Another talked of indiscriminate gunfire in the northeastern Moulivibazar district where the commanding officer fled the camp. Violence was also reported in Chittagong and Naikhongchari in the south, Sylhet in the north-east, and Rajshahi and Naogaon in the north-west.

Back in the capital, the soldiers initially agreed to surrender after the government said it would grant amnesty and discuss their grievances. But it was little surprise to hear that fighting had resumed later in the day. The mood was full of resentment about army entitlements as one rebel soldier told television reporters. Unlike the army, the BDR is under the Home Ministry and has a different pay scale. "Army troops are sent abroad to work in UN peacekeeping missions and they get fat salaries,” he said. “But they don't take border guard personnel for peacekeeping. That's discrimination."

A government spokesman said mutinous soldiers would be treated harshly. Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Cabinet members met in an emergency session today as the Dhaka standoff entered a second day. Some diplomats in the capital speculate that an ulterior motive of the violence is to test Hasina. She succeeded a military-backed administration last month and is the daughter of Mujibur Rahman, who is considered the father of Bangladesh. He won an election in 1970 and led the country to independence one year later which earned him the nickname of Bangabandhu "friend of Bangladesh". However in 1975 his own army officers assassinated him and 23 family members. Hasana and her sister were away in Germany at the time, and were the only ones left to carry on his line.

Since Bangabandhu’s death, Bangladesh has been dominated by military dictatorships, either overtly or disguised by stooge leaders. Hasina inherited the leadership of her father’s party and suffered imprisonment at the hands of several Bangladesh rulers. She was elected Prime Minister in 1996 after two disputed elections and ruled for five years. She was defeated in a landslide in 2001 but continued to lead the party despite criminal charges of extortion and murder. The High Court dismissed all the charges last year and she returned from exile in November to fight the election which she won in a landslide. But defeated Premier Khaleda Zia rejected the result saying the poll was ‘stage-managed'.

Pranab Dhal Samanta writing in Indianexpress.com noted that the BDR is heavily penetrated at the lower and middle ranks by affiliates of Zia’s party. There are also links between Zia’s brother and a disaffected BDR general. It doesn’t take much to join the dots. Samanta believes the force is now being controlled by disgruntled military officers who are known affiliates of Zia’s party. “A spectre of instability coupled with suspicious battles within the Army…and a new government wanting to try 1971 war criminals could rapidly trigger an unexpected crisis in Dhaka,” he writes.

Mauritania military anoints new leader

A week after a bloodless coup that overthrew Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi’s civilian administration, Mauritania’s military has appointed a new Prime Minister to lead a transitional government. He is Moulaye Ould Mohamed Laghdaf, Mauritania's former ambassador to the EU. Coup leader General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz made the announcement in a bid to head off international condemnation of his actions. He was emboldened this week by the support of a majority of Mauritanian politicians, including the Opposition, who declared their support for the coup which they said was carried out "in the interest of the Mauritanian people".

Laghdaf is a lackey of Abdel Aziz, and his appointment was a transparent attempt to restore international relations with the aid of Laghdaf’s diplomatic service in the EU. The London-based The Economist said that while the rest of Africa seems to be slowly ridding itself of its penchant for coups, Mauritania seems to be perfecting its ability to stage them. The last two successful coups on the continent have now both taken place in Mauritania.

Abdallahi was arrested by his presidential guard and relieved of his duties on 6 August. The coup took place without a single gunshot and the news was spread mostly by the president's distraught daughter, who telephoned journalists as coup leaders occupied his house and arrested him. In time honoured fashion, state television and radio went off the air but not before declaring Abdallahi the "former" president. They also announced the reinstatement of senior army officers whose sacking had been announced earlier that morning.

Coup leader Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz is the head of the presidential guard and one of the officers Abdallahi had tried to fire. The coup came as Mauritania launched from one crisis to another. In the last three months, one government had been sacked and another forced to resign. Complaints have ranged from rising food prices to the lack of transparency over the Abdallahi’s wife’s finances. In the wake of the coup, the army instigated a mass resignation of the president's supporters in parliament.

The wheels have come full circle for Abdel Aziz who was involved in the previous coup in 2005. Just as in last week’s affair, there was international disapproval about the army's removal of President Maaouya Ould Sid'Ahmed Taya, who had ruled brutally for two decades. However, optimism returned after the army quickly organised 2006 elections that brought Abdallahi to power. He was Mauritania’s first democratically elected president since independence in 1960.

But the optimism of the early days faded. Al-Qaeda has claimed several attacks in Mauritania over the past year including an attack that killed several French tourists. That attack plus threats against the race caused the cancellation of the Paris-Dakar rally. Eight of the events 15 stages were due to take place in Mauritania.

But while the 2005 coup received mild international reaction, this one has been widely condemned. The US demanded the immediate restoration of the president, while the AU suspended Mauritanian membership. Regional powerhouse Nigeria has refused to recognise the new regime while the EU threatens to suspend aid. The problem is the coup is generally supported within Mauritania. The post 2005 regime did not deliver on their promises and became deeply unpopular. According to one Portuguese expat, life goes on as normal in the capital Nouakchott. “I don't feel stressed and continue to go on as if nothing happened,” said Isabel Fiadeiro. “The only thing that would make you realise something happened yesterday, is the beeping of horns in the street.”

Double challenge for Turkey’s embattled Premier Erdogan

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has been forced to defend his country’s democracy in the face of two major challenges to his power. Turkey is still coming to grips with the news of a planned military coup by an ultra-nationalist organisation probably backed by the military. Meanwhile his own Justice and Development Party (AKP) faces court charges accused of introducing Islamic rule. Erdogan went on the attack overnight against this double challenge. "I want to stress once again that the democratic system is working with its institutions and rules in Turkey within the framework of the law," he told party members. "Turkey has the experience to overcome this painful period and solve its problems with its domestic dynamics. Nobody should be worried.”

But many in his audience are very worried. The court case will decide the very future of the AKP. This landmark case in the country’s highest court, the constitutional court, will have to decide this week not only whether to shut the party down but to also ban its leaders including Prime Minister Erdogan, from politics for five years. The chief prosecutor accuses the AKP of anti-secularism and of seeking to dismantle the secular political system introduced by Ataturk in the 1920s. The AKP dismisses the charges as a politically motivated elitist judicial coup. It says they court is threatened by the party's electoral strength, drawn from a broad cross-section of the emerging middle classes.

While the AKP has its day in court, Ankara police are shedding more light on Ergenekon Operation. The operation is named for an ultra-nationalist political gang which has been carrying out secret preparation for an overthrow of the government. Dozens of high profile arrests have been made including a former chief of police, the head of Ankara’s chamber of commerce and several retired army generals. The plot shows the increasing desperation of the military elite at the continued popularity of Erdogan’s party.

The AKP has governed since 2002 and won a landslide second successive election victory last summer. Their reign of power in Turkey has been matched by the growing Islamism at a local level. Turkish academic Professor Sarif Mardin calls it "neighbourhood pressure" aimed at forcing secularists to conform to a more religious environment. Mardin says the secularist middle class is succumbing to mounting social pressure at the hands of rising conservative class, which, although increasingly westernised and globalised, has questioned several social values upon which the state was founded. Importantly, this included the role of religion in shaping public space and social ethics.

Kemal Ataturk founded the Republic of Turkey in 1923 out of the ruins of the old Ottoman Empire. His grand aim was to modernise the nation. He set upon a course of rapid secularisation and quickly disestablished the Islamic institutions that held a stranglehold over the legal and education systems. Active opposition to Kemal’s reforms was ruthlessly stamped out. When a pro-Islamic party won power after World War II (thanks to elections encouraged by the US), the pro-Kemal army removed it in a coup after a decade of rule.

Under military rule, the Islamists retreated to the domains of education and the press to get their message across. In the seventies a revitalised Islamist National Salvation party formed the balance of power between left and right wing groups in Turkey until another military coup ended democracy in 1980. Recep Tayyip Erdogan was active in National Salvation and joined its successor party Welfare in 1983. He successfully ran for mayor of Istanbul in 1994 on the strength of his excellent skill in oratory. With Welfare growing to become the largest party in Turkey, the army clamped down and banned it in 1997. Erdogan was arrested and convicted of “religious hatred” and spent four months in prison.

Erdogan and others formed the AKP out of the ashes of Welfare in 2001 claiming it to be a “moderate conservative party” to avoid further armed interference. Just a year later, AKP won a crushing victory in a general election despite winning just 34 percent of the vote. Their victory was widely interpreted as a protest against Turkey corruption-ridden body politic rather than a sweeping endorsement of Erdogan’s religious nationalism. But Erdogan has proved to be a competent and attractive leader and was comfortably re-elected last year. As Angus Reid points out, since taking office Erdogan has reconciled the secularist principles of the Turkish Republic with the democratic code that demands that the State respect individual freedoms. But his party’s Islamist roots leave the military deeply suspicious. They may be ready to step in again, either under the cloak of the courts or a coup.

Equatorial Guinea coup trial takes a new turn

The presidential overthrow trial of Simon Mann took an unexpected turn overnight with Equatorial Guinea issuing an arrest warrant for a new master suspect in the 2004 coup attempt. The government has issued an international warrant for the arrest of Lebanese businessman Ely Calil for his role in the plot to overthrow long-term dictator Teodoro Obiang. Calil is currently living in London and Equatorial Guinea’s British embassy claims it has ample evidence to support his involvement in the coup attempt. The embassy described Calil as the coup’s “organiser, intellectual conspirator, architect and financier.”

It was the 62 year old Calil who transferred $1 million to the bank account of British mercenary Simon Mann who is awaiting sentence for his involvement in the coup. Mann is under arrest in Equatorial Guinea but claims that Calil was the real leader of the coup. Mann calls Calil “Smelly” and said that a group led by Smelly was still conspiring to replace Obiang with Severo Moto, an exiled opposition leader living in Spain.


Simon Mann is a former member of Britain’s Special Air Service (SAS) Mann also made headlines for accusing Margaret Thatcher’s buffoonish son Mark of a role in the coup. In 2005 Thatcher was convicted by South Africa for his role in this case. He was fined after he admitted paying $US275,000 for a helicopter but claimed he thought it was to be used as an air ambulance. Mann said Thatcher was “part of the management team”. Mann said he recruited Thatcher and took him to London to be vetted by Calil, whom he identified as the "boss" of the whole operation. After that, he said, Thatcher was "not just an investor - he came on board completely” and attended many meetings. Mann named Thatcher as one of five men "in charge of the operation". Equatorial Guinea's government has issued an international arrest warrant for him. Thatcher is currently believed to be living in hiding in either the south of Spain or Gibraltar.

Mann was arrested in Zimbabwe in 2004 as he was trying to fly in weapons for the coup plot. His friends claim he was illegally deported to Equatorial Guinea after cash was handed over in suitcases to Mugabe’s henchmen. Mann was expected to be sentenced last week after he pleaded guilty but as yet there has been no verdict. His defence team asked for a ten year sentence but the prosecution has demanded 32 years. However some sources in the capital Malabo say the trial was a charade and that Mann has struck a deal with the authorities that would see him pardoned return to Britain after just a year or two. The 55 year old Mann is in a privileged cell with the ability to make phone calls and eat a daily ordered lunch with Manuel Nguema Mba, the Minister of Security.

In his trial Mann said the 2004 plot was in effect an “official operation”, sanctioned by the Spanish and South African governments, and tacitly endorsed by Washington. Mann said the Pentagon, the CIA and the US oil companies which have invested heavily in Equatorial Guinea were sounded out and all signalled that a "well-conducted change of government would be welcome". Mann said the plot was rushed through before the 2004 Spanish general elections in Spain, in case the friendly government of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar was defeated (which it was). Mann said Calil had told him the coup plotters had been promised immediate diplomatic recognition by Aznar's administration if they succeeded in overthrowing Obiang.

Obiang’s regime has long been seen as one of the most corrupt and repressive in Africa. He has ruled the oil rich West African nation since he grabbed power from his uncle in 1979 and his party won 99 out of 100 seats in a sham election last month. Last week, Peter Maass writing in Slate magazine called Obiang's life a ‘parody of the dictator genre’ and nominated him as Africa’s worst tyrant. Since the 1990s the country has become Africa’s third largest oil exporter but Obiang has transferred about $700 million of the revenues into his personal account. And because of the oil investment he is lauded in the US not condemned. “For the usual and shameful reasons, the White House does not use its clout to condemn Obiang as it condemns Mugabe”, writes Maass. “Instead of seeking an indictment against the man, the U.S. government is putting rent money in his pocket.”

Mugabe replaced by junta as Zimbabwe plunges further into despair

A Zimbabwean court has overruled a police move to ban opposition rallies in advance of the forthcoming presidential run-off election between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai. The decision came after police denied authorisation last week to Tsvangirai’s MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) party to stage rallies in Zimbabwean townships on the specious grounds of ‘assassination threats’. The MDC then filed papers with the High Court in Harare. On Saturday an MDC lawyer announced that the court had ordered the rallies be allowed and that the police should not interrupt them.

This is one of rare pieces of good news for the MDC as it faces massive hurdles to overcome Mugabe’s state apparatus in the 27 June election. Tsvangirai was arrested twice last week; most recently on Friday when he was stopped at a roadblock as he was on his way to a regularly scheduled rally. He was taken to a police station and was released after 2½ hours. In both arrests Tsvangirai was accused by police of threatening public security by addressing a gathering without prior authorisation. This low-level harassment has impacted the entire campaign since Tsvangirai returned to the country three weeks ago. “We've noticed that it's going to be a common trend in this campaign,” said his spokesman George Sibotshiwe. “Obviously the government…are trying to prevent him from going about his campaign freely and peacefully.”

Tsvangirai and his party have been victims of systematic violence since the first election in March. A scathing new report from Human Rights Watch called “Bullets for Each of You” (pdf) now presents compelling evidence to support the obvious conclusion that the campaign is aimed at ensuring Mugabe wins the run-off election. The violence has claimed thousands of victims as both national and local government authorities systematically and methodically targets both MDC activists and the party's perceived supporters.

The violence has been particularly concentrated in former rural strongholds of Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). These areas turned their back on their traditional party to vote for the Tsvangirai and the MDC in the parliamentary and first-round presidential elections. In government and top military circles the campaign has been called “Operation Where Did You Put Your Cross?” The administration has been using independence war veterans to beat, torture and mutilate people as well as burn down their homes for “voting incorrectly” in the first election.

HRW now say that if current conditions are maintained, there is no possibility of a credible, free and fair poll. “Time has nearly run out for Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU),” it says, “to make the necessary political interventions to end the violence and ensure a free and fair vote.” They say the violence is orchestrated at the highest levels of government (known as “Joint Operations Command”) which includes senior ZANU-PF officials as well as the heads of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, police, prison services, and the Central Intelligence Organisation.

The report also confirms the report of a “senior western diplomat” that the Joint Operations Command (JOC) has taken de facto power in Zimbabwe reducing Mugabe to a mere figurehead. The unnamed source told Britain’s Daily Telegraph last week that a small circle of "securocrats", who sit atop the JOC committee, are now in day-to-day charge of the country. The most powerful figures in the new junta are General Constantine Chiwenga, the overall military chief; followed by police commissioner Augustine Chihuri and prison service commander General Paradzai Zimondi. The source said Mugabe remains a useful figurehead to parade in front of African leaders but had no real power left. "This is a military coup by stealth," he said. "There are no tanks on people's lawns, but the Joint Operations Command runs this country."

The absence of tanks on lawns does not disguise the fact that the country is in deep crisis. Zimbabwe is an economic as well as political shambles. The currency has depreciated by about 84 percent since the central bank floated it in early May after years of an official peg. On Thursday the Zimbabwean dollar plunged to a new record low, trading at an average 1 billion to the US dollar. The rapid weakening of the currency was caused by inflation expectations and a huge demand for hard currencies. The latest move triggered further massive price increases. Prices of basic goods, most of which are now imported, have gone up sharply since the disputed March 29 election. A loaf of bread cost Z$15 million before the polls but now costs about Z$600 million. And the army has warned off its population of change occurring any time soon. “If you vote for MDC in the presidential runoff election,” said soldiers addressing villagers at one meeting, “you have seen the bullets, we have enough for each one of you, so beware.”

Talks hope to end Guinea army revolt

Talks are progressing in the Western African republic of Guinea in an effort to end a military revolt by junior army officers. It was the second time in 12 months, the army has revolted for the second time in 12 months over pay. Guinean soldiers claiming years of unpaid wages captured their own chief-of-staff and took to the streets of the capital Conakry in a repeat of their May 2007 protest over the same issue. While the government has agreed to their pay demands, the sticking point now is over rebel demands for the removal of senior officers they accused of theft and corruption.

The revolt began late last month when paratroops and special forces in the country’s largest military base of Alfa Yaya Diallo, near Conakry international airport, unloaded their weapons before seizing the army's second-in-command General Mamadou Sampil after he came to try to negotiate with them. Locals also heard gunfire at Kindia army garrison 130km inland. Civilians took cover in their homes to avoid stray bullets. The precautions were warranted as several civilians were killed and dozens more wounded by stray bullets shot into the air. The mutineers looted shops and homes of military commanders, but made no serious attempt to take over government installations.

After an emergency meeting on Monday last week at the presidential palace, Guinean president Lansana Conté issued a statement which was read out on state television. Conté, whose own background is military, called for calm and asked for the soldiers to open dialogue and negotiations. When that statement had no effect, a panicking Conté fired his defence minister in an effort to appease his mutinying troops. The dismissal of Bailo Diallo was one of their demands but it is not clear if that satisfied the rebels. Shortly after the decision to sack Diallo, an unnamed military official said shots were at the army’s central HQ at Camp Samory where President Conté and his wife were in hiding.

Conté said he would refuse to deal with the rebels until they released the hostages they were holding at Alfa Yaya Diallo including General Sampil. On Sunday they met with military commanders and made some progress in talks on a pay deal. The 15-member regional Economic Community of West African States said the Guinea crisis "put at risk the safety and security of the civilian population and poses a grave threat to the fragile peace" in the region. The crisis also threatens the long-term rule of Conté himself.

Lansana Conté has ruled Guinea for 24 years. Incredibly he is one of only two men to have led the country in the 50 years since independence from France in 1958. Conté has survived several coups and assassination attempts. The biggest threat to his stranglehold on power was a general strike nationwide strike in January 2007. Conté was forced to appoint an independent Prime Minister, Lansana Kouyaté, to end the strike. Last month, Conté sacked Kouyaté to end an uneasy power-sharing arrangement.

While Kouyaté had been a disappointing PM, news of his dismissal triggered some disturbances and protests. But matters really took a turn for the worse when the soldiers intervened. They claimed Kouyaté promised them back pay and began to threaten their superiors. When the replacement prime minister Ahmed Tidiane Souaré, (a former Conté aide) paid the first instalment on their arrears, it merely emboldened junior military officers to sack all the top brass. The initial violence was followed by a four day stand-off with gunfire resuming again on the weekend.

Aid agencies in Guinea have reduced their operations to a minimum as they await the outcome of the ongoing military dispute. UN resident representative Gasarabwe Mbaranga said they were monitoring the situation and have advised staff to stay at home. "We already have tight security levels in place in the city and have not changed them," she said. But medical staff from Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) remain on duty bringing medicine and equipment to Conakry’s hospitals to help hospital staff treat the wounded. Many people in Guinea now fear the worst: an all-out civil war between troops led by emboldened junior officers and forces loyal to the aging Conté.

Diary of a coup

The newly installed Thai military leader said yesterday a new prime minister will be named within two weeks. Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin said elections would be held only after a new constitution had been written. State TV announced that Thailand's ageing but revered King Bhumibol had endorsed army chief Gen Sonthi as temporary leader, although there has been no direct communication from the King himself.

The bloodless coup d'état took place late on Tuesday evening Thai time but tensions had been building all day. The timing was opportunistic. The troubled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was in New York for a UN General Assembly meeting. Probably aware that something was afoot he called an urgent teleconference with all armed forces' commanders at 8am. No-one showed for the meeting. Gen Sonthi later said the meeting is hastily called. All day, rumours spread around the capital that the army is planning a coup but there is no solid information. Finally, at 6pm the army acted. Armed Forces special units poured into Bangkok and took up key positions through the city. At 8pm, police are issued heavy arms are put on notice to prepare for a riot. An hour later, the Army controlled TV Channel 5 interrupts regular programming and replaces it with patriotic songs. Information is still hard to come by, with no-one confirming or denying that a coup has taken place. More rumours emerge that say the deputy premier and defence minister have both been arrested and Thaksin’s son has fled the country. Just after 10pm the news has filtered through to CNN. Thaksin was quickly on the phone to demote the Army leader and declare a state of emergency. But his intercontinental orders were ignored.


At 11pm local time a group calling itself the Administrative Reform Council (ARC) appeared on local TV to issue a statement. The polite statement said “the armed forces commander and the national police commander have successfully taken over Bangkok and the surrounding area in order to maintain peace and order. There has been no struggle. We ask for the cooperation of the public and ask your pardon for the inconvenience”.

In the next few hours, they issued three more statements clarifying their intent. The second statement outlines the reasons for the coup d'etat, citing national disunity and rampant corruption and the council says it plans to return power quickly to the people. The third said the constitution is nullified as is the caretaker Cabinet and the Constitutional Court. The fourth statement said that the ARC chief has now taken the power of the prime minister. It signalled that the power show was officially over for Thaksin, Thailand’s richest man.

On the Wednesday, Thaksin cancelled his planned speech to the UN and flew instead to London where his daughter is studying. Foreign governments were torn between condemnation of the coup and careful consideration of the new de facto government. Assistant US Secretary of State Christopher Hill said “It's really too early to form any hardened judgments”. Back in Bangkok martial law was imposed and all government, businesses and universities were advised to close for the day. However other than an obvious military presence on the streets, there was little impact. Restaurants and bars stayed open, the streets were busy and tourists continued to spend their money.

The Thai army have a long tradition of stepping in to suspend democracy in the country. Tuesday’s event is the 18th coup (ten of which saw a change of leader) since King Bhumibol ascended the throne in 1946. And almost all of the successful ones have occurred with the tacit approval of the King. The 2006 coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin is the first Muslim to lead the mostly Buddhist Thai army. There has been more than 1,000 deaths since 2004 in a mostly underreported war between the army and Muslim rebels in the region bordering Malaysia. On the day of the post, the Bangkok Post reported a rare interview with Thailand's senior Muslim, known as the Chularatchmontri. He said “the government is on the right track to solve southern unrest”. It will be intriguing to see whether the country’s first Muslim leader will share that view. The world will have some time to judge as he announced he would not call elections for another 12 months.