Thaksin supporters take their melodrama to the streets

Thailand political protesters have decided to spill blood to match their colour-coded red shirts on the streets of Bangkok. Organisers have asked 100,000 marchers to donate blood which will be spilled at the gates of Government House to demonstrate their fierce opposition to the rule of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Apart from the melodramatic nature of the protest, it is a terrible waste of good blood but it shows the determination of those loyal to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who have been protesting more or less non stop in the 15 months since Abhisit took power. (photo:AP)

Demonstrators lined up to have their blood drawn by nurses, after their leaders vowed to collect "one million cubic centimetres" of blood. Protest leader Nattawut Saikur said if he still wants to continue as prime minister “regardless of our demands, he must walk across Red Shirt people's blood." Another leader Veera Musikapong said the blood was a sacrificial offering “to show our love for the nation, to show our sincerity.” The protesters planned to spill the blood if Abhisit continues to refuse their demands that he resign.

This latest macabre mass protest has entered a third day bringing 50,000 troops and police to Bangkok’s streets. The red shirts are the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship. They are mostly rural and support Thaksin, who now lives in exile in Dubai after he jumped bail on a graft charge. He swept to power in 2001 with their support promising measures to benefit the poor, and most still see him as a hero. Micro-credit and affordable healthcare schemes were two popular policies. They believe the Abhisit Government is illegitimate, because it came to power by virtue of defections rather than by winning an election.

The Oxford educated 45-year-old Abhisit first rose to prominence when he became leader of the Democrat Party in 2005 after its crushing election defeat by Thaksin. After a constitutional crisis Thaksin called a snap election in April 2006 Abhisit boycotted it as did all the other opposition leaders. In the chaos that followed there was supposed to be a second election in September but the military coup put paid to that. Though Abhisit disapproved, he gave support to the interim leader and bided his time. He was defeated again in the election that followed in December 2007 by Samak Sundaravej of the People's Power Party who formed a tenuous six-party coalition.

When Samak was sacked for corruption Abhisit lost out again to Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law. But Somchai didn’t last long either. The Constitutional Court banned him and his party for electoral fraud. Many disillusioned MPs defected to the Democrats and Abhisit finally had the numbers. He was elected PM in December 2008. It wasn’t long before the sniff of scandal began to whiff around Abhisit. The opposition accused him of approving false account reports to the electoral commission and filing false information. Abhisit survived a vote of no confidence though the endemic corruption within the Thai body politic continues to dog him. However, the biggest shadow over his leadership remains Thaksin. In March 2009 Thaksin accused the Privy Council of masterminded the 2006 coup that ousted him and then conspiring to make Abhisit leader.

This was the signal for thousands of Thaksin red-shirted supporters to come in from his countryside supporter base to take to the streets. Last year Abhisit declared a state of emergency and he got the army to clear the streets of protesters. This time the catalyst is the constitution court's verdict on 26 February to seize nearly two thirds of Thaksin’s assets. As The Guardian says “For Thaksin, the struggle is now all personal after his assets confiscation. For the reds, the fight is increasingly an organic people's movement to upend the established order. Such all-or-nothing stakes bode ill for Thailand's stable future".

Thailand slowly returns to normal

Bangkok and surrounding districts are slowly returning to normal despite enduring a fifth successive day of emergency rule. The government has extended the Thai New Year's holiday for the rest of the week for "public safety" in case the opposition movement regroup. Today Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva pledged to call elections once stability is restored. Yesterday was the first day since the weekend, the so-called Red Shirt have not been out on the streets demanding the resignation of Abhisit’s four-month-old administration The current Prime Minister was appointed in December after a constitutional court banned that the former government loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra.

The red shirts are followers of the former populist Prime Minister now in exile and are officially called the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD). They wear red to distinguish themselves from pro-monarchical urban elite followers of the Peoples' Alliance for Democracy (PAD) who wear yellow. PAD protests were instrumental in the overthrow of Thaksin’s rule by military coup in September 2006. Thaksin still retains widespread support among Thailand’s rural poor. His UDD followers claim Abhisit is a puppet of the military and have called on him to resign.

Last month 2,000 protesters began holding sit-in protests outside government offices, and prevented the cabinet from meeting. On the weekend, Red Shirt protesters caused major international embarrassment when they stormed a venue in Pattaya forcing the cancellation of a 16 nation regional summit of Asia Pacific leaders. Abhisit responded by declaring a state of emergency. On 12 April, the Thai government also revoked Thaksin’s passport in absentia.

Matters worsened on Sunday when protesters took over the major Din Daeng intersection in the capital. The choice was strategic as it blocked the crossing that led to Bangkok's main military base. At 4am Monday morning, the army made its first charge which drove away the red shirts. By sunrise, the army had control of the intersection while the protesters had retreated to the roads to Victory monument and the city centre.

For several hours there was an uneasy truce. But at mid-morning, the troops were on the march again. Using a drum beat from their batons and riot shields, they advanced on the protesters. The red shirts greeted them with petrol bombs and rocks and set fire to buses and tyres. Soldiers responded by firing at the demonstrators causing dozens of injuries. The protesters scattered among burning vehicles while the army gave chase. The UDD claim two people were killed and 113 injured in the clashes, though the government denies this.

Protesters were then surrounded by heavily armed soldiers for almost 24 hours, prompting the leaders to give in to avoid further bloodshed. On Tuesday protesters finally ended a three-week siege of Abhisit's offices. In a televised address to the nation later that day, Prime Minister Abhisit said people were dispersing and the situation was returning to normal. One UDD supporter admitted the military had made it too dangerous for him to wear the red shirt. Pairoj Chotsripanporn, a 52-year old trader, said he had now swapped the colour for something more neutral. "We will be attacked by this military-backed government,” said Pairoj. “But we will not stop."

Meanwhile the man behind the demonstrations continues to elude Thai authorities. Thaksin has been on the run since 2006 and Thailand has an arrest warrant out on him. Yesterday Associated Press reported he had been issued a diplomatic passport by Nicaragua. AP said he was appointed an "ambassador on a special mission”. However, the Thai online site Matichon has disputed this claim. They quoted a letter from the Nicaraguan embassy in Mexico to Thai embassy issued yesterday saying that the report was unfounded.

Thaksin spoke to French broadcaster France 24 overnight but did not comment on the passport rumours. Instead he urged King Bhumibol Adulyadej to intervene. “I have urged his majesty to intervene. He is the only person that can intervene in this incident, otherwise the violence will become wider and also the confrontation would be more and more,” he said. He also pledged to continue to give "moral support" to the protesters.

The truth behind Thailand's “protests”: a delicate balance of forces

What exactly is going on in Thailand? Western media reports a “political crisis” but so far seems a well organised, peaceful, and most importantly supported-by-the-military crisis. The Prime Minister’s residence has been taken over by 20,000 protesters for a week but so far the PM Samak Sundaravej has not called out the police or the army. The 73-year old Samak is a Thaksin Shinawatra surrogate whose legitimacy stems from last year's election won by the People Power Party created by loyalists from Thaksin’s old party Thai Rak Thai.

The southern airports of Phuket, Hat Yai and Krabi were barricaded off by protesters who marched on their stomachs rumoured to be supplied by the military or even members of the Royal Family. Samek has refused to call an election and has vowed to rule on with the apparent support of the king whom he met today.

Samak won power in 2007 with the support of the rural majority despite the antagonism of the coup leaders. He now hangs on as a stand-in leader for the far-away Shinawatra. A growing wealthy elite in Bangkok, loath both men and are determined to force an election. But Thaksin may be about to taxi home. Today, he sold his English Premier League football "toy" Manchester City to Abu Dhabi interests. Thaksin may be cashing up for his inevitable return to his homeland and the bribes he will need to pay to stay out of prison.

And so the west reports Thailand seems delicately poised between four forces that represent the Army, the King, the country (in the name of Thaksin), and Bangkok’s growing bourgeoisie. The army has remained in barracks so far but given their past record as recently as 2006, they could be itching for the chance to “solve” the crisis. Coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin has retired but the army’s attempt to fix the 2007 election backfired spectacularly. There may be other leaders who want to take on his baton. But they will have to contend with Samak’s appointment today of General Songkitti Jaggabatara, a former classmate of Shinawatra to the role of military supreme commander.

But for now, the army is quietly working behind the scenes for the opposition umbrella group People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). Some have claimed PAD actually stands for People Against Democracy because of what it is fighting for: a Parliament in which only 30 percent is elected and the rest are “appointed” by royal command. PAD’s paternalistic policy see them blame western-style democracy for Thailand’s ills. It was PAD who began the protests that led to Thaksin’s overthrow and who now want to strike at him again through Samak.

PAD have strongly invoked the royal family in their attempt to curry favour. Royalty remains sacrosanct in Thailand and there is intense jockeying for power in the event of the death of 80 year old King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Officially a constitutional monarchy, Bhumibol is extremely powerful. He has been instrumental in most Thai political dealings over his extraordinary 60 years on the throne and had a very direct bearing on the 2005 coup. He is the world’s longest-reigning monarch, and the wealthiest royal worth an estimated $35 billion. PAD knows that if Bhumibol withdraws his support it means the end for Samak.

While no-one knows how this drama will play out between Bhumibol, PAD, Samak and the army, it should be noted there is an fifth force of influence in the country: the Thai media. Television is contested but is mostly controlled by Samak. His forces say the state media should be a mouthpiece for the government, while opponents argue that it belongs to the people as these stations are established and operated using the taxpayers' money. The print scene is also vibrant. As of 2003, there were 150 newspapers of which about 40 were Bangkok dailies. The city also has two important English language dailies The Bangkok Post and the Nation and several Chinese language papers. Almost all of the country’s 73 provinces have local newspapers. Lurid tabloid journalism is extremely popular but there is also a significant well-educated elite who avidly read the broadsheets. These papers have one major taboo topic (criticism of the Royal Family) but otherwise report fairly on the political unrest. With a free Internet also available, Thailand is awash with vigorous, diverse, well-informed opinion that can quickly turn hostile.

It will take a monumental effort of will to end that unrest. The Guardian sees the crisis as a continuation of the events that ended Thaksin’s reign calling it a “never ending coup”. They see it as a struggle between “two deep-seated and irreconcilable forces” of a the traditional Thai alliance of the bureaucracy, military and monarchy, and “a populist nouveau riche from the rural areas whose support Thaksin has tapped into.” It sees an election as perhaps the only gamebreaker.

Thaksin Shinawatra comes home

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrived home today for the first time since he was ousted in a military coup 17 months ago. He landed at Bangkok Airport and was greeted by thousands of supporters who cheered, sang and waved placards proclaiming: "We Love Thaksin". The 58 year old Shinawatra responded with a traditional Thai bow before being whisked off by an even larger entourage of police to the Thai Supreme Court to answer the corruption charge over a land deal while he was in office.

Shinawatra was immediately released on bail of 8 million baht (about a quarter of a million US dollars). Bail will be revoked if he travels outside Thailand without the court's permission or does anything to interfere with his case. He faces several charges of corruption and abuse of power brought up by junta-appointed investigation bodies. Thaksin faces two charges of corruption which date to his time in office and separate charges of concealing assets. In addition, he and his wife Pojamarn face charges stemming from a Bangkok land deal and an alleged stock concealment plan. Shinawatra could receive a maximum of 15 years in prison.

The northern born Shinawatra became one of the richest people in Thailand by setting up telecommunications companies like Shin Corporation and Advanced Info Service before entering politics. In 1996 he formed a new Party: Thai Rak Thai (Thai love Thais). Their election platform (universal access to healthcare, a debt moratorium for farmers, and a development fund for all Thai villages) proved immensely popular and TRT swept to victory in 2001. His first few years in power were marked by massive economic growth in Thailand. He won another landslide victory in 2005 but by then the Thai economy was slowing down.

The crisis in 2006 started when the Shinawatra family sold its $2 billion stake in Shin Corporation. The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission investigated the transaction but cleared the family of wrongdoing. With calls growing for his resignation, Thaksin called an election which was boycotted by the opposition. A Thai court ruled his subsequent win invalid. In September 2006 Shinawatra was deposed in a military coup while he was overseas.

The exiled Thaksin settled in London. In July 2007 he boosted his public profile in Britain by buying premier league football team Manchester City. He immediately spent big on the club bringing in former England manager Sven-Goran Eriksson to coach the team. Political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University saying buying this club is a shrewd move aimed at his homeland where millions are besotted by the English Premier League. "The Thai authorities didn't want to let this deal go through,” he said at the time. “If Manchester City start winning matches, people will go wild for Thaksin."

Manchester City have been reasonably successful and are currently eighth in the table. And Thaksin’s stocks has risen in Thailand. His allies in the People Power Party (PPP) won elections in December, raising expectations that Thaksin would come home. New PPP Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej gained power largely by using the former Prime Minister’s popularity in its election campaign. While Sundaravej downplayed problems posed by Thaksin’s return and urged his supporters not to flock to the airport to greet him, he did send PPP party officials to accompany Thaksin home.

Officially Thaksin remains banned from political activity and he has repeatedly claimed he has retired from politics. However, he is seen as the power behind Sundaravej and he still has a massive power base in the north-east of Thailand where his policies are popular with farmers. “I just want to go home to my family and thank them and everyone for their support,” he said on his return today. How long he remains this coy about his prospects, depends on how quickly he can end his legal woes.

Diary of a coup

The newly installed Thai military leader said yesterday a new prime minister will be named within two weeks. Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin said elections would be held only after a new constitution had been written. State TV announced that Thailand's ageing but revered King Bhumibol had endorsed army chief Gen Sonthi as temporary leader, although there has been no direct communication from the King himself.

The bloodless coup d'état took place late on Tuesday evening Thai time but tensions had been building all day. The timing was opportunistic. The troubled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was in New York for a UN General Assembly meeting. Probably aware that something was afoot he called an urgent teleconference with all armed forces' commanders at 8am. No-one showed for the meeting. Gen Sonthi later said the meeting is hastily called. All day, rumours spread around the capital that the army is planning a coup but there is no solid information. Finally, at 6pm the army acted. Armed Forces special units poured into Bangkok and took up key positions through the city. At 8pm, police are issued heavy arms are put on notice to prepare for a riot. An hour later, the Army controlled TV Channel 5 interrupts regular programming and replaces it with patriotic songs. Information is still hard to come by, with no-one confirming or denying that a coup has taken place. More rumours emerge that say the deputy premier and defence minister have both been arrested and Thaksin’s son has fled the country. Just after 10pm the news has filtered through to CNN. Thaksin was quickly on the phone to demote the Army leader and declare a state of emergency. But his intercontinental orders were ignored.


At 11pm local time a group calling itself the Administrative Reform Council (ARC) appeared on local TV to issue a statement. The polite statement said “the armed forces commander and the national police commander have successfully taken over Bangkok and the surrounding area in order to maintain peace and order. There has been no struggle. We ask for the cooperation of the public and ask your pardon for the inconvenience”.

In the next few hours, they issued three more statements clarifying their intent. The second statement outlines the reasons for the coup d'etat, citing national disunity and rampant corruption and the council says it plans to return power quickly to the people. The third said the constitution is nullified as is the caretaker Cabinet and the Constitutional Court. The fourth statement said that the ARC chief has now taken the power of the prime minister. It signalled that the power show was officially over for Thaksin, Thailand’s richest man.

On the Wednesday, Thaksin cancelled his planned speech to the UN and flew instead to London where his daughter is studying. Foreign governments were torn between condemnation of the coup and careful consideration of the new de facto government. Assistant US Secretary of State Christopher Hill said “It's really too early to form any hardened judgments”. Back in Bangkok martial law was imposed and all government, businesses and universities were advised to close for the day. However other than an obvious military presence on the streets, there was little impact. Restaurants and bars stayed open, the streets were busy and tourists continued to spend their money.

The Thai army have a long tradition of stepping in to suspend democracy in the country. Tuesday’s event is the 18th coup (ten of which saw a change of leader) since King Bhumibol ascended the throne in 1946. And almost all of the successful ones have occurred with the tacit approval of the King. The 2006 coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin is the first Muslim to lead the mostly Buddhist Thai army. There has been more than 1,000 deaths since 2004 in a mostly underreported war between the army and Muslim rebels in the region bordering Malaysia. On the day of the post, the Bangkok Post reported a rare interview with Thailand's senior Muslim, known as the Chularatchmontri. He said “the government is on the right track to solve southern unrest”. It will be intriguing to see whether the country’s first Muslim leader will share that view. The world will have some time to judge as he announced he would not call elections for another 12 months.

Thaksin Does Good Routinely?

Thai caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra celebrated his 57th birthday yesterday. Happy birthday Thakky boy. Shinawatra has been prime minister since 2001 and was re-elected in 2005 with a landslide victory. However this year he was placed under pressure to resign after a financial scandal. In March the opposition parties demanded the King replace Shinawatra. Shinawatra retaliated by calling a snap election which was boycotted by the Opposition. Shinawatra won but the Constitutional Court declared the election invalid. Shinawatra remains ‘caretaker’ Prime Minister while the country awaits fresh elections.

Shinawatra’s family are originally from Guangdong province in Southern China. His great-grandfather Seng Sae Khu moved to the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai in 1908. The family changed its name to Shinawatra which means “does good routinely”. The family grew wealthy as tax collectors and then by moving into finance, construction and property development. The Shinawatra family became one of the richest and most influential families in Chiang Mai. Thaksin was educated at an elite Chiang Mai school and joined the Thai Police Department in 1973 aged 24. In 1975, he got his master's degree in criminal justice from the Eastern Kentucky University and obtained his doctorate in three years later from the Texan Sam Houston State University. He moved up through police ranks and married the daughter of a police general in 1980. His initial business dealings were failures and he ended up 50 million Baht in debt.

Shinawatra didn’t achieve any business success until he left the Police in 1987. He got into mobile phones and his big break occurred in 1990 when his company Advanced Info Service launched analogue mobile phone services. This required an important concession from the Telephone Organization of Thailand. It was listed on the Thai stock exchange a year later and became the largest mobile operator in the country.

He entered politics in 1994 joining the Palang Dharma Party (PDP). At the time it was a member of the ruling coalition and after a purge of its cabinet ministers Shinawatra was quickly appointed Foreign Minister despite not being an elected MP. The PDP withdrew from the coalition a year later and brought down the government. In the subsequent election Shinawatra was handpicked to take over the party by his mentor the retiring leader Chamlong Srimuang. The party lost half its seats in this election but still took its place in a new coalition. Shinawatra was appointed deputy PM and was given charge of perhaps Thailand’s most vexing problem – Bangkok traffic.

Shinawatra resigned from parliament in 1996 but reappeared a year later in yet another coalition. He formed a new Party: Thai Rak Thai (Thai love Thais). Their election platform (universal access to healthcare, a debt moratorium for farmers, and a development fund for all Thai villages) proved immensely popular and TRT swept to victory in 2001. It was only the second time in over 70 years of Thai democracy that that a single party had gained outright government. The government instituted a series of reforms that were dubbed “Thaksinomics” a set of populist economic policies designed to increase the purchasing power of Thailand's rural lower classes, which make up the majority of the country's population. It seemed to work and by 2002 Thailand outpaced the rest of Southeast Asia by posting GDP growth of 5.2%, the fastest rate since the Asian financial crisis of 1997.

Since the beginning of 2005, however, the wisdom of Thaksinomics has been increasingly questioned. Though the TRT won another landslide victory that year, economic growth has slowed down. Shinawatra blamed this on the Indian Ocean Tsunami which devastated much of Thailand’s west coast tourist resorts. However rising inflation, consumer indebtedness and trade deficits are also hurting the Thai economy as a direct result of Thaksin's policies. Corruption and the slow progress of Bangkok’s new airport are also factors.

The crisis this year started as a result of the Shinawatra family decision to sell entire stake in Shin Corporation to Temasek Holdings (worth almost $2 billion US). The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission investigated the transaction but cleared the family of wrongdoing. There were a series of mass protests led by opposition parties looking for the PM’s scalp. The King was asked to appoint a replacement in March but he declined stating it would be unconstitutional. Thaksin dissolved parliament but the opposition boycotted the subsequent election. In May a court ruled the election invalid and ordered new elections. The opposition has declared they will take part but no date has been set. In the meantime Thaksin clings on to power.