Waltz with Bashir: re-examining Israel's 1982 war in Lebanon

(pic by Wolf Gang)

I watched the wonderful animated Israeli film Waltz with Bashir on TV tonight and was reminded of the first time I saw it on a rainy night in a Dublin cinema last year. It was just before Christmas and the film's bright and vivid colours were an antidote to the grey of Irish winter. The subject matter, a genocide in the 1982 Israel-Lebanon war remains shocking despite the passing of the years. My interest in the film was also piqued by a recent visit to the Middle East. I had travelled overland from Turkey to Israel a month earlier. I avoided Lebanon, perhaps a bit afraid but I was also fascinated by the region and its seemingly intractable problems. So I expected the film to say a lot about Israel and Lebanon and I wasn't disappointed. What I did not expect was that the film would also say much about the fragile and treacherous nature of memory.

I also thought of the selectiveness of my own memories of Israel. My overriding impression was of a siege society. Though I never felt particularly unsafe, every public building is a terrorist target and long queues for searches are commonplace. The only people not searched are the young men and women in uniform who carried guns into railway stations with the same insouciance as others carry guitars. They carried them in uniform and in mufti. They carried them on the streets and in the markets and the cinemas and cafes. They nestled up to them on buses and trains in Jerusalem's thriving new city. They also patrolled with them along the ancient chequered streets of the Old City. This epicentre of the Israel’s problems since the 1967 Six Day War is divided by its Jewish, Christian, Armenians and Arab quarters and also by the sensitive and doubly disputed Temple Mount, which is cordoned off behind razor wire.

But perhaps the Israelis are right to feel paranoid. In 61 years of existence, the nation has found it difficult to convince its neighbours it should exist at all. Border travel is only possible to Sinai and to Jordan where a three-hour grilling is likely from suspicious hosts that prefer their visitors to arrive and leave via the front door at Ben Gurion airport. At Allenby Bridge, the Israelis want to know where you have been and where you are going. They want to know where you are staying in Israel. They would particularly like to know if you are going to the West Bank or Gaza.

In asking these questions, Israel is attempting to cover its guilt. Because despite its first world status in a third world Arab region, Israel has never properly dealt with the people it shares Palestine with. Like the Jews, the Palestinian Arabs also have an affinity with their land and they know 1948, the year the Israeli state was founded, as Al Nakbar - “The catastrophe”. Hundreds of thousands were forced off their land and became refugees in the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan and southern Lebanon.

The Palestinians weren’t wanted anywhere, but Lebanon was particularly difficult. This small but always vibrant country has long been a strategic melting pot. It was already a patchwork of different religious groups before 100,000 mainly Sunni Islam Palestinian arrived. Most were treated with hostility. There hasn’t been a census in Lebanon since 1932 because the powerful Christian Maronites don’t want confirmation the population is shifting towards Islam. The arrival of the Palestinians was a major factor in the complex civil war that tore the country apart between 1975 and 1990. The Mediterranean metropolis Beirut was destroyed many times over, the US and Israelis were dragged in and in the end Syria established a fragile hegemony over the warring tribes.

The Lebanese Palestinians were disenfranchised and living in squalid camps. These camps were the seeds for the PLO which used the cover of the civil war to wage their own counter-insurgency across the border on Israel. In April 1982, a PLO splinter group shot an Israel diplomat in London. Although the victim survived, this was the excuse Israel needed to invade southern Lebanon. They established a buffer zone with tacit American support.

Waltz with Bashir tells the story of this chaotic invasion. The Bashir of the title is Bachir Gemayel who led the Maronite Phalangists during the Civil War. Gemayel was a hero to his people and his face was a ubiquitous presence on posters and walls across Beirut. His Christian militia supported the Israeli invasion (though not in public) as both forces saw the PLO as the enemy. For two months Israel enforced the 40km buffer zone while they negotiated with Gemayel for him to become Lebanese Prime Minister with their support. But in September 1982 a bomb detonated at his HQ killing him and 26 other senior Phalangists. Though it was a fellow Christian employed by Syria who would later be convicted, the murder gave Israeli PM Menachem Begin to perfect excuse to expand the war against the PLO. Israel invaded Beirut, breaching a guarantee Begin gave the US not to do so.

The name of the film comes from the elaborate dance-like steps taken by one Israeli soldier to avoid sniper fire while running across a Beirut street illuminated by a background of a giant poster of Gemayel. The scene is played out like a waltz but it was far from serene. The Israelis overwhelming firepower allied to the Phalangist support soon secured the city. Once in power Gemayel’s people thirsted for vengeance against their PLO enemies. With IDF permission, 1,500 of their fighters entered the Shabra and Shatila refugee camps where the last PLO militants hid out among the refugees. The Israelis assisted their operation by continually lighting flares to assist their night-time activities.

Over the next two days, they went on a reign of terror. There is no agreed list of casualties but the Red Cross counted 300 deaths and said there were many more. The Israelis went further and admitted 800 civilians died. But various Palestinian bodies, including Red Crescent say the real death toll was several thousand. Whatever it was, Israel did not call off the slaughter until a TV journalist named Ron Ben-Yishai threatened to tell the world about it. A subsequent Israeli inquiry blasted the IDF for doing nothing to stop the genocide.

Waltz with Bashir is a film of laughter and forgetting. It was made by Ari Folman who was a 19 year old infantryman at the time of the war. Folman had lost his memories of the Lebanon campaign and was attempting to piece them back together with the help of people he served with. The film received mixed reviews in Israel with some saying he was too sympathetic to the IDF and others finding the parallels between the Palestinian camps and Nazi camps distasteful. The film is banned in Lebanon but 90 people attended a private screening in Beirut in January. Folman was delighted. "I wanted to show young people what war really looks like without glam and glory, without brotherhood of man and all the stupid things you might see in big American anti-war movies,” he said at the time. “Maybe that will convince them not to attend the next war that our leaders are cooking up for us."

Hezbollah acknowledge defeat in Lebanon election

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has acknowledged his party lost the weekend parliamentary election in Lebanon to the ruling coalition. The Sunni dominated March 14 coalition, led by Saad Hariri won 71 seats in the 128-seat parliament, while the Hezbollah coalition known as March 8 took 57. Speaking on Monday after official results were released, Nasrallah congratulated the government and opposition in a televised address on Monday. "We accept the official results in a sporting spirit," he said.

The loss of the Hezbollah-led opposition has been attributed to the poor performance at the polls of the Free Patriotic Movement, its Christian ally. The Free Patriotic Movement, led by General Michel Aoun, did poorly in the polls winning just 27 seats. Aoun blamed the loss on the large numbers of overseas voters who were flown in to cast their votes. He also said he has "thousands of complaints" about the March 14 forces' "violations" of the election law. "Laws and traditions were violated.” He said. “Regretfully, Patriarch Sfeir's Saturday statement took a tragic tone about the dangers posing to Lebanon which caused fear among people.”

AP's Sam Ghattas also noted the key influence of Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, head of Lebanon’s Maronite Catholic. Sfeir issued a last-minute warning about Iranian influence claiming that the nation's character and its Arab identity were under threat. Ghattas said that fears of a Tehran-supported government helped splice Christian swing voters from their supposed Shiite allies to deliver election victory to March 14.

Saad Hariri, son of Rafiq Hariri who was assassinated in 2005, is now poised to follow in his father’s footsteps and become the new Prime Minister. The Arabic An Nahar newspaper said consultations will be launched next Friday 20 June (which is the day parliament term expires) to name the new prime minister who will form the next cabinet and appoint a new parliament speaker. Another newspaper As Safir claims Hezbollah has no objections to Hariri becoming leader if it can do a deal to nominate the speaker.

Hariri will be anxious to negotiate particularly given that Hezbollah still control a powerful private army. Hezbollah’s militia won support in Lebanon by driving the Israeli army out of the south of the country in 2000, ending an 18-year occupation. The March 14 group see the dismantling of this army as a key cornerstone to any lasting Lebanese peace. But his supporters are adamant he will not give them a veto over government policy. It was the veto negotiations which brought the government to a standstill last year and sparked clashes that killed at least 80 people. One Hariri spokesman said Hezbollah’s weapons are “a matter for national dialogue in order to progressively unify them under the army’s control.”

But even though doubts remain about Hezbollah’s willingness to disarm, the election result was well received by Beirut Stock Exchange. On Tuesday shares of Solidere, Lebanon's largest construction and development firm, rose 15 percent. Fadi Mubarak, head of treasury at Lebanon's Credit Bank, said the election’s effect was positive and people saw it as a good sign. Many Lebanese worried that a Hezbollah win would have alienated the country's main donors and left oil-rich Persian Gulf investors feeling skittish.

Hariri’s victory has also been greeted with relief in the West which fears Hezbollah’s terrorist links and Iranian support. But writing in The Irish Times, Michael Jansen says the election should not be read as a victory for Arab moderates. The political balance in the country remains almost the same as it was before the poll with the ruling coalition actually losing one seat since the previous election in 2005. Jansen quotes Paul Salem of the Carnegie Middle East Centre who said “nobody won and nobody lost”. Salem said Hezbollah might be comfortable with the outcome because Israel has been deprived of a pretext to attack Lebanon.

While it seems unlikely Hezbollah would be satisfied to remain perpetually in opposition, the role of Israel cannot be ignored. Later today Obama envoy George Mitchell will go to Lebanon after visits to Israel and Egypt and before heading on to Syria. There he will try and advance a political solution between Israel and its northern neighbours. Mitchell's trip was indicative of his overall approach - to talk to everyone and then "try to move the ball down the field one yard at a time."

Indicting Gaddafy: Lebanon raises the stakes on Musa Sadr disappearance

Lebanon has indicted Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafy over the disappearance of a prominent Shia cleric 30 years ago. Sheik Musa Sadr disappeared in 1978 when he visited Libya though Tripoli claimed he left the country on a plane bound for Rome - a claim denied by Italy. Lebanon has charged Gaddafy and six other Libyan officials with conspiring to kidnap and false imprisonment which carry a maximum death penalty. However, Gaddafy and the others are highly unlikely to ever face trial in Lebanon.

The person assassinated, Imam Musa Sadr, was a major influence in Lebanon’s 1970s sectarian politics. He was born in Iran and got a law degree from Tehran University. His family was Lebanese and in 1960 he accepted an invitation to be the Shia religious leader in the Southern Lebanese city of Tyre. An intellectual, he spoke several languages and was equally conversant in Western thought as he was in Shia philosophy. Similar to South American liberation theologian priests, Sadr was a charismatic speaker and a tireless worker who gave his downtrodden community a voice and provided them with identity and power in Lebanese politics.

Growing tensions in the south near the Israeli border spurred a mass Shia exodus to the slums of southern Beirut. Sadr was religious head of the Shia community and he organised the fragmented slums of southern Lebanon and the western Beqaa Valley into a new political movement. Sadr called the movement Harakat al-Mahrumin (movement of the deprived) and it quickly became the voice of Lebanese Shia.

When Lebanon’s civil war began in 1975 the Harakat divided into political and military wings. The political party Amal (Hope) became an international organisation and the party of choice for diaspora Shia businessmen as far away as Freetown, Accra, Kinshasa and Detroit. These communities provided the financial muscle for the new party. Sadr used his Amal militia to run social services but his pleas for help in the Shia slums fell on deaf ears in Beirut.

Slowly but surely he began to undermine the pan-Arab unity of Sunni hegemony. Sadr was the figurehead of a growing Shia awakening. In the 1970s Amal camps trained Shia activists from Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. As the civil war raged, Sadr’s Shia-centric actions and Persian accent brought about great distrust in the Lebanese Sunni community. Many accused him of treason and saw him as a threat to the Palestinian establishment and by extension to the larger Arab world.

His assassination was well-planned and well-known in advance. Before he left for Libya in 1978, the feared head of Syrian security Rifaat al-Assad (younger brother of then President Hafiz al-Assad and uncle of current leader Bashar al-Assad) summoned the Shah’s ambassador to Damascus to warn him of Libya’s plan. Sadr still held an Iranian passport and Assad did not want to damage relations with Tehran. But Sadr and two assistants left as planned to visit Gaddafy and none of them were never heard from again.

To his supporters Sadr became known as the “vanished Imam”. Despite his disappearance Amal remained a major force in Lebanese politics. He welcomed the 1982 Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon as a liberation and flexed his power in the refugee camps after Israel expelled the PLO. They remained the leading Shia group until they were overshadowed by Hezbollah backed by the new theocratic Iranian government. Hezbollah won respect in Sunni communities after it took on the IDF and forced it to retreat from southern Lebanon.

The issue of Sadr’s disappearance dragged on to become the subject of a major dispute between Libya and Lebanon. Gaddafy refused to attend an 2002 Arab summit in Beirut after Shia groups threatened him. Libya closed its Beirut embassy claiming it was insulted by Lebanese pressure to reveal Sadr’s fate. In 2004, Sadr’s son filed a suit against Gaddafy and 17 members of his government. Lebanon claimed to have new information about the disappearance and the country’s chief prosecutor said former Libyan Prime Minister Abdel Salam Jalloud and a former Libyan ambassador to Lebanon should also be summoned.

But the Libyan leader never responded to the summons. Gaddafy has not been back to Lebanon since Sadr disappeared. The arrest warrant against him allows magistrates to take such measures against suspects who fail to respond to an official summons. Lebanon knows its current arrest warrant is highly symbolic, but is unwilling to let the matter lie. Their Shia have emerged as a major political force and remain determined to get to the bottom of the fate of their “vanished imam”.

Seriously Syria: attempting entente cordiale with the US

Israel and Syria continue to warm up to each other this week if a “fourth round of indirect diplomatic talks” can be said to produce heat. Both parties will meet in Turkey next week to discuss items such as the Golan Heights, water rights along the Jordan River, avoid war with each other, and the reestablishment of diplomatic relations. No easy tasks, for sure. But Syrian sources quoted in the Washington Post say that agreement is tantalisingly close in three of those areas: borders, waters and security. The last element, normalisation, is the sticking point, as it means normalisation with the US. This will not occur until there is a new occupant in the White House.

Even with a wait of a few months, this is cause for optimism. US-Syrian relations have long been marred by disagreements. In the Cold War era, Syria was considered a Soviet satellite state though its Ba’athist administration kept an eccentrically independent stance. Syria has seen both sides of political violence. In 1986, Syria was the victim of one of the largest terrorist attacks of the 80s when an explosion in Damascus killed 144 people and injured another 149. Syria blamed the attack on Israeli agents, but could provide no proof.

Syria was an active agent of terror too. That same year Syrians were suspected to be involved in the Berlin La Belle Disco attack. Two US servicemen and a Turkish woman died in the incident, for which Libya was blamed and attacked in supposed retaliation. Shaul Bakhash, writing in the New York Review of Books, said there was “persuasive evidence” two Jordanian brothers carried out the attack as Syrian recruits. However the information was not shared with other US media as the truth did not conveniently fit with the demonisation of Gaddafy’s Libya.

The same scenario applied a year earlier when the air terminals in Rome and Vienna were attacked on the same day. The US carried out retaliatory attacks on Libya, killing 100 people. The New York Times editorialised it was justified to “save the next Natasha Simpson” (an 11 year old US victim of the air terminal bombs) but pointed fail to provide any evidence Libya was the culprit. Meanwhile Italian and Austrian authorities said the perpetrators were trained in a Syrian-controlled area of Lebanon and had arrived in Europe via Damascus. When the Italian Interior Minister reiterated his belief Syria was responsible, the New York Times duly reported it without feeling the need to justify their earlier comment about Libya.

But Syria and the US have been allies too. In 1976, Syria entered Lebanon in 1976 with US approval in an attempt to end the Lebanese civil war. Instead the civil war dragged on another 15 years and Syrian troops stayed on in violation of UN Security Council resolution 520. According to Noam Chomsky, Syria help implement such massacres as occurred in the Palestinian refugee camp of Tel Al-Zaater, where thousands died at the hands of Syrian-backed Christian forces armed with Israeli weapons.

Today, the relationship between US and Syria remains ambiguous. While the State Department officially categorises Syria as a sponsor of terror, the US was happy to receive Syrian help about Islamist radicals suspected of having connections with Al Qaeda. Syria has been a willing participant in the US extraordinary rendition program, most notoriously in the case of Canadian IT programmer Maher Arar.

However relations cooled significantly after Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told an American audience that Syria had gained membership of the “axis of evil” club in an update of George W. Bush’s tiresome metaphor of 2002. The US also accused Syria of aiding and abetting Iraqi insurgents while its likely involvement in the assassination of Lebanon PM Rafik Hariri also raised US hackles. The Bush administration have since tried and failed to oust the Assad Government by all means short of invasion.

But an Obama or McCain White House will not have the same level of vindictiveness. Syria and Lebanon are finally coming to terms with each other, with successful peace talks brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Qatari Emir Hamad bin Khalifah. The reconciliation between Syria and former colonial power France is also significant in geopolitical terms. According to Professor Hilal Khashan, chair of the political science department at the American University of Beirut, Syria is indirectly approaching the US through its talks with France and Israel. "The Damascus regime will only conclude a peace deal with Israel that is overseen by America," he says.

Lebanon deal brings end to political stalemate

After five days of talks in Qatar, Lebanese factions have agreed on a deal to end the country’s 18 month political stalemate and renewed fighting that claimed at least 67 lives this month. The outcome was greeting by celebratory gunfire in Beirut as Lebanese TV broadcast the Doha ceremony live which brought an end to five days of talks. But weary Government leaders have had to give way on major provisions to avoid the alternative of outright war. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said it was "an exceptional agreement at an exceptional time". Parliamentary secretary Saad Hariri also put the best spin on the outcome saying "I know that the wounds are deep, and my injury is deep, but we only have each other to build Lebanon.”

Other parties in the region were less circumspect. Syrian President Bashar Assad claimed the talks as a victory and called Qatari Emir (and Prime Minister) al-Thani to congratulate him on the agreement. Iranian News Agency ISNA also congratulated the Qataris for their efforts. They quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini who said “The Islamic Republic of Iran hopes that the Doha accord ... will provide a blossoming and brilliant future for the Lebanese.”

Iran and Assad had good reason to be happy – their proxy Hezbollah made major inroads in the talks. They have almost doubled their seats in cabinet from 6 to 11. Crucially, it now has enough seats in cabinet to give it veto power in the new national unity government. It also benefits from a new electoral law that divides Lebanon into smaller districts which will give the country’s sects better representation. Shiites make up between 30 and 40 percent of the Lebanese population, yet are accorded only 18 percent of parliamentary seats. However, one downside is the need to disarm – the deal states that the "use of arms or violence is forbidden to settle political differences".

The deal also paves the way for parliament to elect a new president. Lebanon has been without a president since November 2007. Al-Thani said the deal will be "carried out immediately” and he believes the election of a new president will occur within 24 hours. The post is likely to be filled by Army chief Michel Suleiman. The army is seen as the one institute that stands above the fray. Suleiman is a good compromise candidate and despite being a Maronite Christian is regarded by the country's rival political factions as relatively neutral. More importantly he has kept the army on the sidelines of civil conflict.

Several key issues remain unresolved after Doha. Among them are what will happen to Hezbollah’s large weapons cache, and thorny question of Lebanon’s quixotic relationship with Syria. The Lebanese government blamed Syria for the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. But Syria has so far refused to co-operate with a UN investigation into the murder of Hariri and ten other government officials. In October 2005, UN investigator Detlev Mehlis told then Secretary-General Kofi Annan the plot to kill Hariri "could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials”.

Nevertheless, one immediate benefit of the outcome of the talks was the end of a 180 day Hezbollah sponsored blockade of the centre of Beirut. The protest began on 1, December 2006 when the opposition set up a sprawling tent city on streets leading to the offices of the Prime Minister Siniora, in a bid to force him to step down. The camp site paralysed the commercial heart of the city and large parts of the centre became a ghost town as dozens of restaurants and businesses were forced to shut down. Today, trucks started clearing the tent city under the orders of Opposition parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri. While protesters headed home, workers returned to the city to pick up the pieces. Fadi Harb, an employee at a nearby cell phone shop, said happily, "This agreement means calm, peace, security, stability and the future."

Winograd blames IDF for failed Lebanon war

The Israeli government-appointed Winograd Commission has issued a strong indictment of the military and the political administration over its conduct in the failed 2006 war in Lebanon. The 621 page final report issued by retired judge Eliyahu Winograd yesterday did not have the mandate to place responsibilities with individuals but blamed the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and every Israeli government since 2000 for a series of failures, shortcomings and missed opportunities. Crucially, the Commission noted Israel did not succeed in translating the military conflict into any meaningful political achievements.

The probe was dedicated to the memory of the soldiers and civilians who died in the month-long conflict that Israel calls the “Second Lebanon War”. Winograd found that the Israeli army went into battle unprepared, conducted flawed strategic planning and was unable to adjust to political realities. Among the report’s recommendations was for Israel’s government and the IDF to overhaul their strategies for making decisions during emergency situations and wars. It said there was a “genuine contradiction” between the army’s objectives in Lebanon and the limitations placed on troops due to fear of casualties. The report said “the General Staff failed to communicate to the political echelon that this manner of conduct is unsuitable for war."

The conflict began in July 2006 when Lebanese Hezbollah militants kidnapped two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. Israel began a massive bombing campaign in southern Lebanon, but waited until the final days of the conflict before it launched a major ground offensive that failed to push Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon before a UN-mediated cease-fire went into effect. Before that happened Israel and Lebanon were on the verge of all-out war and several thousand people died on both sides. Much of northern Israel’s population of one million people were instructed to remain in shelters for much of the war's duration. The situation was also dire for the Lebanese as the Israelis kept up an air and naval blockade of the country until September.

After the war ended, public criticism grew as did demands for an independent enquiry into the conduct of the military, especially whether its initial response was proportionate to the kidnapping of two soldiers. The Israeli cabinet approved the establishment of the Winograd Committee in September 2006. The Commission was appointed due to a strong sense of a crisis and deep disappointment with the consequences of the campaign and the way it was conducted. Former judge Winograd chaired the committee and was joined by two professors and two retired army major-generals. The committee was tasked “to look into the preparation and conduct of the political and the security levels concerning all the dimensions of the Northern Campaign which started on July 12th 2006”. The committee began hearing testimony from witnesses from November 2006 onwards.

The committee produced an interim report (pdf) in April 2007. Its main focus was on the decisions leading to the start of the war. It found the key mistakes were the lack of a “detailed, comprehensive and authorised military plan”, a refusal to contemplate a policy of containment and a vague and ambiguous communication of the mission goals. It laid the blame on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the Defence Minister and the army Chief of Staff and said that had these three acted better “the outcome of the war would have been significantly better”.

But the final report did not explicitly criticise Prime Minister Olmert. He would have been relieved by its conclusion which largely absolved the political masters of the war. The report backed the decision to launch a major ground offensive in the war’s last couple of days when it was clear a cease-fire was imminent. The panel called that move "essential," even though the "last-minute ground offensive in Lebanon did not improve Israel's position.” According to Anthony Loewenstein, the very fact that the Israeli government is likely to survive the scandal “reflects the dysfunctionality of the Jewish state”. However with none of Israel’s four ruling coalition partners wanting an early election, Olmert is unlikely to face more heat on the issue.

No end in sight for Lebanon refugee camp siege

The siege in Northern Lebanon at the Nahr el-Bared Palestinian refugee camp has now moved into its second week with no signs of a settlement. The Lebanese government have demanded the surrender of Islamic militants inside the camp but are reluctant to rush into an all-out assault. Inside the camp the leader of the Fatah Islam militants, Shaker Youssef al-Absi, vowed his fighters would not surrender. "We wish to die for the sake of God," he said in a video released to Al-Jazeera on the weekend. "Sunni people are the spearhead against the Zionist Americans."

Palestinian negotiators have put together a four point plan to end the crisis. The plan calls for a permanent cease-fire, the creation of a Palestinian security force to maintain law and order in the camp, the barring of other armed groups in the camp and the creation of "a mechanism for the departure" of Fatah Islam from the camp. But this mechanism for the departure refuses to countenance the arrest of Fatah Islam leaders and that remains the biggest stumbling block to the Government agreeing to end the siege. Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Saniora described the assault on the army as a crime against national stability and the Lebanese military has demanded al-Absi’s fighters be handed over for prosecution for attacking government troops last week.

The trouble started last weekend after Lebanese soldiers conducted raids in the city of Tripoli. The trouble then spilled over to the nearby Nahr al-Bared refugee camp. The Lebanese Army then laid siege to the camp trapping Fatah al-Islam militants in the process. At least 22 soldiers and 17 fighters were killed in the battle in the city and the camp. The army has threatened to storm the camp if the group fails to surrender. Al Jazeera reported that the army shelled the camp for the first three days of the siege. Walid Abdullah, a nurse inside the camp, said bodies were piling up in the streets and that there was a threat of disease. "Many dead bodies are lying on the streets," he said. "They are bloated and smelling and there is a threat of epidemics."

The Lebanese Opposition group Hezbollah has warned the government of dire consequences if they launch an assault on the camp. The camp leader, Shaker Youssef al-Absi is a Palestinian who has said he is inspired by Osama bin Laden. He has also has been linked to Al Qaeda factions in Iraq. Al-Absi was born in the West Bank town of Jericho in 1955 and fled with his family to Jordan after the 1967 Six Day War. He lived in a refugee camp for five years before joining Yasser Arafat’s Fatah movement. He fled to Tunisia in 1970 due to tensions between the PLO and Jordan. From there he went to Libya where he trained in Gaddafy’s air force.

In more recent times Al-Absi fought in the campaign of Afghanistan and Iraq. He was sentenced to death in absentia in 2004 by a Jordanian military court for his involvement in an assassination plot of US American diplomat Laurence Foley in Jordan. At the time Al-Absi was in prison in Syria on terrorist charges. He was released last year and made his way to Lebanon. Al-Absi now leads several thousand Palestinian refugees at Nahr al-Bared. The camp initially held 31,000 displaced Palestinians but 25,000 of them manage to flee the camp after the army shelling. Most of the escapees are now crowded at Hoda al-Turk camp in nearby Beddawi, about 5km north of Tripoli.

Al-Absi’s organisation Fatah al-Islam is a new addition to the covoluted political landscape in Lebanon. Lebanese security officials said the organisation began in the camp and has 100 members who come from various Arab countries including Saudi Arabia and Syria. They have been joined by local sympathizers. The group has quickly expanded to the nearby city of Tripoli. Tripoli is a predominantly Sunni city but does have a contingent of Islamic fundamentalists. A Fatah spokesman told Lebanese TV it belongs to the conservative Salafi branch of Islam and its aim was to liberate the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. "We are a Jihadi movement, and we have hoisted the banner of Islam,” he said.

Journalists have been prevented from entering the camp since last Monday. The army barred photographs of troops, artillery and military targets. Journalists were also forced out of a nearby high-rise building that had been used as a location for reporting the crisis. The Lebanese Army has not publicly explained the restriction, although some officials initially said it was imposed for safety reasons. Some journalists suspect the more likely reason was the army was attempting to hinder coverage of the humanitarian crisis inside the camp. On Thursday three journalists from Agence France-Presse, Al-Akhbar and Al-Alam were beaten by Lebanese army members after straying too close to the camp.

With 12 camps in Lebanon containing 400,000 mostly desperate Palestinian refugees, they remain a hotbed for political agitation and a time bomb ready to explode. Abu Imad Rifai, a representative of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad, told AP on the weekend, "The repercussions of a military solution are much more serious than a political solution," It was a blunt warning that a military assault on Nahr el-Bared would trigger further violence in the other 11 camps.

Lebanon's dance of blood

A Lebanese government minister was assassinated yesterday near Beirut. The Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel was shot dead as his convoy drove through a Christian neighbourhood. Gunmen opened fire on his car, riddling it with bullets. The 34 year old Gemayel was rushed to hospital but died later of multiple gunshot wounds. The death of this strongly anti-Syrian minister will further inflame political tensions in this tinderbox country. Parliamentary majority leader Saad al-Hariri, son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, blamed Damascus for the killing saying, "we believe the hand of Syria is all over the place,” he said.

Gemayel comes from a Christian Maronite family steeped in Lebanese politics. He was named for his grandfather Pierre Gemayel who founded Christian Kataeb (Phalange) Party, initially as a youth movement, in 1936. Gemayel the Younger’s father was former president Amin Gemayel. His uncle Bashir Gemayel was also elected president but was killed in 1982 after Israel's invasion of Lebanon. Pierre was also a member of the Phalangists and industry minister in the current administration. He is the third anti-Syrian political figure to be assassinated since Al-Hariri's killing in February 2005.

The pro-Damascus opposition is led by Hezbollah, which is determined to topple what it sees as a pro-US government. Hezbollah and its allies are preparing for street demonstrations to topple the government of Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora which they accuse of being US allies. They also arguing that it has lost its legitimacy since Shi'ite Muslims are no longer represented. Six pro-Syrian ministers (two of which are Hezbollah appointees) have resigned in the last two weeks after the cabinet approved a UN statute for a tribunal to investigate the death of Rafik al-Hariri. Al-Hariri died in a suicide truck bombing in 2005 and the UN implicated senior Lebanese and Syrian security officials in the incident. Hezbollah have now released a statement denouncing the murder of Gemayel. They also called for calm, warning the population not to jump to conclusions.

Ultimately however, this is most likely the latest step in a Syrian effort to derail the international tribunal. It started with the mass resignations from the government. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Nasrallah called on his followers to take to the streets to precipitate the fall of the government. The ultimate aim is to demand enough ministerial portfolios to be able to hold a collective veto against cabinet decisions they don’t agree with. Michael Young, writing in The Washington Post believes Syrian President Assad is behind the Gemayel killing in order to undermine the complex tribunal set-up process. And in the complicated web of Lebanese politics, the killing may also undermine the Christian politician Michel Aoun who has attempted to seek Muslim support with his advocacy of secular politics. Lebanon’s fragile peace is dependent on a sectarian governmental structure, where the President is a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies a Shi'a Muslim.

That balance was disturbed when Aoun’s party, the Free Patriotic Movement, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Shi’te Hezbollah in February this year. The MOU had a 10-point plan that called for dialogue, consensual democracy, modern electoral law, combating corruption, uncovering the fate of those missing in action in Lebanon’s wars, returning Lebanese citizens from Israel, security reforms, sound relations with Syria, asserting the independence of Palestine, and the protection of Lebanon’s sovereignty. Although Aoun was feted by the Bush administration when he visited Washington last year, the MOU with Hezbollah has raised serious concerns in the US and Israel. The agreement was one reason why Israel attacked Lebanese Christian targets during the six-week incursion earlier this year. Aoun has also officially denounced the Gemayel killing.

Lebanese Sunni Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani also denounced the assassination of Gemayel. He is the spiritual leader of over 600,000 Lebanese which is 15-20% of the total population (this is an estimate as Lebanon has had no official census since 1932, due to the country’s extraordinary religious sensitivity). The majority of Sunnis are urban based and are less focussed on their religion as a political identifier. The main Sunni party Al-Murabitun (“the Sentinels”) is seen as pro-Syrian. However Qabbani denounced the killing saying, "the assassination of Pierre Gemayel amid circumstances of tension and defiance currently being observed in the country was a severe blow to all those who wished that the situations could not reach to this extent."

The other group represented in the Lebanese political hegemony are the Druze. The Druze are a small and secretive religious offshoot from Ismaili Islam that was started in the 10th century. They are also influenced by Greek philosophy and Christianity. Though they regard themselves to be part of Islam, this view is not shared by other Muslims as Druze do not follow the Five Pillars of Islam. The Druze are represented politically by the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt. The BBC described Jumblatt as Lebanon’s weathervane. He has constantly switched allegiances but has always ended up on the winning side. Since 2000 he has campaigned for Syria to relinquish control. Many suspect even the weathervane may be another target for Syrian-controlled assassins. Despite the threat, Jumblatt went to the hospital where Gemayel was taken after he was gunned down and called 'for calm and respect the memory of the martyr.' He also shot a warning across Syria’s bows: 'the international court is coming without a doubt.'

Enter Syria stage right

Syria was the centre of one of the most ancient civilizations on earth. The Syrian Ministry of Tourism claims “every Person has two homelands, his own and Syria”. The quote is originally by French archaeologist Andre Parrot who, in 1933, discovered and excavated the Mari kingdom site which flourished in Syria the 3rd millennium BC. It remains an important country today. It has major oil reserves and occupies a strategic position bordering Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. These latter two countries have been involved in escalating tensions and the link with Syria is bubbling under the surface.

The UN is planning to send negotiators to Syria to defuse the tensions between Israel and Lebanon. However Syria has rejected one of the three negotiators Norwegian diplomat Terje Roed-Larsen. He caused offence when he overstepped his mandate in dealing with implementation of a September 2004 resolution which called for Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon, and the disarming of militias especially Hezbollah which controls southern Lebanon.

Syria has been heavily involved in Lebanese politics for thirty years. In 1976, they sent an invasion force of 40,000 troops to prop up the regime of Suleiman Frangieh. Although Frangieh represented a Maronite Christian faction, he had known then Syrian president Hafez Al-Assad who was following a secular, pro-Soviet agenda (which earned him the wrath of Islamists in Syria). Syrian troops entered Lebanon, occupying Tripoli and the Bekaa Valley and imposed a short-live ceasefire. The Arab League then proposed that the Syrian troops stay as a peace-keeping force. The Phalangists Maronite militia backed by Israel then emerged as an enemy of Syria and President Assad shored up his force by placing ground-to-air missiles in Lebanon.

Israel invaded southern Lebanon to drive out the PLO bases and besieged Beirut. A UN delegation restored a temporary peace and Israeli and Syrian troops withdrew from the country. Complex internecine violence remained through the 80s between Lebanon’s various ethnic clans. The Taif Agreement of 1989 gave a prominent role to Syria in the implementation of peace for the country. Maronite General Aoun denounced the Taif agreement and launched an unsuccessful ‘war of liberation’ against Syria and their Lebanese allies. Though hostilities formally ended in 1991, Syrian troops remained in the country for another 15 years. Their departure was hastened by the assassination of Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri in a car bomb explosion. Though never proven, Syria was deemed responsible for the attack, due to its extensive presence in Lebanon and to the public rift between Hariri and Damascus over the constitutional amendment extending pro-Syrian President Lahoud's term in office. Popular demonstrations known as the “cedar revolution” allied to international pressure forced Syria to remove its remaining 15,000 troops in April, 2005.

Syria is again under pressure from the US and Israel not to get involved in the Lebanon crisis. Israel has signalled it does not want an all-out conflict with Damascus and its only target is Hezbollah. It did claim however that Syria is resupplying Hezbollah with rockets. Israel claims that most of the rockets that have dropped on Haifa in the last week were manufactured in Syria. Syria removed its troops from Lebanon under UN supervision 12 months ago after the international outcry over the assassination of five-time premier Hariri. But with the Gaza offensive a month old and the two-week Lebanon operation, Israel cannot afford to immediately open a third front. For that they require the support of the US.

The US has repeatedly called for regime change in Syria and believes it to be a sponsor of terrorism. They are supported by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. On Wednesday he chillingly called for the elimination of “the threat posed by the axis of terror and hate - Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran". Israeli MP Effi Eitam, a member of the foreign affairs and defence parliamentary committee made it clear what the intention when he told AFP: "we will have to take care of Syria at some point.”

Israel and Lebanon on verge of all out war

The Israel-Lebanon crisis has taken a dangerous new turn today. The Lebanese ruling Hezbollah party has declared ‘open war’ on Israel. The audiotape declaration came after Israeli missiles struck the group's headquarters and its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah's house in southern Beirut. Nasrullah’s message ran: "You wanted an open war. You will get an open war," This is a dramatic escalation of the conflict which began on Wednesday. In the wake of Hezbollah’s warning, an Israeli vessel enforcing a naval blockade on Lebanon’s ports was hit by an unmanned airborne vehicle known as a “drone” which was packed with explosive. The ship was badly damaged and four Israeli soldiers are missing.

The tensions started on Wednesday July 12. Hezbollah launched a diversionary cross-border attack on Israel. Hezbollah fighters fired dozens of Katyusha rockets and mortar rounds on the Israeli occupied Shebaa Farms border area. This was followed up by an attack on two Israeli humvees with a combination of explosives and antitank missiles. Eight troops were killed and two were captured. These two are now being held as bargaining chips to release Palestinian fighters from Israeli jails. However instead of negotiating, the Israelis responded with massive aerial attacks on Lebanese targets.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert described the Hezbollah attacks as an "act of war" by Lebanon and promised a "very painful and far-reaching" response. Israeli ground forces crossed into Lebanon to search for the captured soldiers. Two Lebanese civilians were killed and five people wounded in retaliatory Israeli air strikes.

On the day after the initial violence, a rocket attack was launched on the Israeli port city of Haifa. Hezbollah denied firing the Haifa rocket but their guerrilla forces were responsible for firing scores of Katyusha rockets on targets across northern Israel killing two Israelis and injuring another 120. The Israeli army Home Front Command ordered residents of Haifa and nearby towns to stay indoors and listen to radio broadcasts. Hezbollah has declared it has over 10,000 rockets to use against Israel. People have started to evacuate from border towns towards safer areas such as Tel Aviv.

The Israelis have also imposed a total sea, land and air blockade on Lebanon. As well as a naval blockade, this involved bombing Beirut international airport and the main highway to Damascus, Syria. The airport was closed and all international flights were diverted to Cyprus. Several airlines, including Qatar Airways and Gulf Air, have suspended flights to and from Beirut. Israel also targeted Hezbollah's al-Manar television station, but Hezbollah continued transmission from another location.

The Iran backed Hezbollah (which means Party of God in Arabic) is the main political party representing the Shia community, Lebanon's largest religious bloc. It calls for the establishment of an Islamic state in Lebanon and runs hospitals, news and education services. Hezbollah emerged as a force during the 1980s war in Lebanon. In 2005, the European Parliament branded them a terrorist organisation but this has not yet been acted upon by the EU. The 45 year old Hassan Nasrallah was elected as the secretary-general of Hezbollah in 1992. The continued existence of Hezbollah's military wing after 1990 violates the Taif Agreement that ended the Lebanese civil war, which requires the "disbanding of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias" and requires the government to "deploy the Lebanese army in the border area adjacent to Israel."

The current tensions may provide Israel with an excuse to demolish the military wing of the party. Meanwhile the G8 leaders currently meeting in St Petersburg, Russia are divided in their response to the crisis. US President Bush has unsurprisingly backed Israel's right to “defend itself” in the same week as the US blocked an Arab-backed UN Security Council resolution demanding Israel halt its simultaneously military operation in the Gaza Strip (which was also started by the kidnapping of an Israel soldier). Russia meanwhile has called Israel’s response “disproportionate” whereas the European members of the G8 have endorsed a EU call for Israel to show restraint.

The most immediate international effect of the crisis is likely to be at the petrol pump. Oil prices hovered above US$78 per barrel yesterday, near record highs, as the intensifying violence prompted concerns of a possible supply disruption.