Hezbollah acknowledge defeat in Lebanon election

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has acknowledged his party lost the weekend parliamentary election in Lebanon to the ruling coalition. The Sunni dominated March 14 coalition, led by Saad Hariri won 71 seats in the 128-seat parliament, while the Hezbollah coalition known as March 8 took 57. Speaking on Monday after official results were released, Nasrallah congratulated the government and opposition in a televised address on Monday. "We accept the official results in a sporting spirit," he said.

The loss of the Hezbollah-led opposition has been attributed to the poor performance at the polls of the Free Patriotic Movement, its Christian ally. The Free Patriotic Movement, led by General Michel Aoun, did poorly in the polls winning just 27 seats. Aoun blamed the loss on the large numbers of overseas voters who were flown in to cast their votes. He also said he has "thousands of complaints" about the March 14 forces' "violations" of the election law. "Laws and traditions were violated.” He said. “Regretfully, Patriarch Sfeir's Saturday statement took a tragic tone about the dangers posing to Lebanon which caused fear among people.”

AP's Sam Ghattas also noted the key influence of Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, head of Lebanon’s Maronite Catholic. Sfeir issued a last-minute warning about Iranian influence claiming that the nation's character and its Arab identity were under threat. Ghattas said that fears of a Tehran-supported government helped splice Christian swing voters from their supposed Shiite allies to deliver election victory to March 14.

Saad Hariri, son of Rafiq Hariri who was assassinated in 2005, is now poised to follow in his father’s footsteps and become the new Prime Minister. The Arabic An Nahar newspaper said consultations will be launched next Friday 20 June (which is the day parliament term expires) to name the new prime minister who will form the next cabinet and appoint a new parliament speaker. Another newspaper As Safir claims Hezbollah has no objections to Hariri becoming leader if it can do a deal to nominate the speaker.

Hariri will be anxious to negotiate particularly given that Hezbollah still control a powerful private army. Hezbollah’s militia won support in Lebanon by driving the Israeli army out of the south of the country in 2000, ending an 18-year occupation. The March 14 group see the dismantling of this army as a key cornerstone to any lasting Lebanese peace. But his supporters are adamant he will not give them a veto over government policy. It was the veto negotiations which brought the government to a standstill last year and sparked clashes that killed at least 80 people. One Hariri spokesman said Hezbollah’s weapons are “a matter for national dialogue in order to progressively unify them under the army’s control.”

But even though doubts remain about Hezbollah’s willingness to disarm, the election result was well received by Beirut Stock Exchange. On Tuesday shares of Solidere, Lebanon's largest construction and development firm, rose 15 percent. Fadi Mubarak, head of treasury at Lebanon's Credit Bank, said the election’s effect was positive and people saw it as a good sign. Many Lebanese worried that a Hezbollah win would have alienated the country's main donors and left oil-rich Persian Gulf investors feeling skittish.

Hariri’s victory has also been greeted with relief in the West which fears Hezbollah’s terrorist links and Iranian support. But writing in The Irish Times, Michael Jansen says the election should not be read as a victory for Arab moderates. The political balance in the country remains almost the same as it was before the poll with the ruling coalition actually losing one seat since the previous election in 2005. Jansen quotes Paul Salem of the Carnegie Middle East Centre who said “nobody won and nobody lost”. Salem said Hezbollah might be comfortable with the outcome because Israel has been deprived of a pretext to attack Lebanon.

While it seems unlikely Hezbollah would be satisfied to remain perpetually in opposition, the role of Israel cannot be ignored. Later today Obama envoy George Mitchell will go to Lebanon after visits to Israel and Egypt and before heading on to Syria. There he will try and advance a political solution between Israel and its northern neighbours. Mitchell's trip was indicative of his overall approach - to talk to everyone and then "try to move the ball down the field one yard at a time."

Lebanon deal brings end to political stalemate

After five days of talks in Qatar, Lebanese factions have agreed on a deal to end the country’s 18 month political stalemate and renewed fighting that claimed at least 67 lives this month. The outcome was greeting by celebratory gunfire in Beirut as Lebanese TV broadcast the Doha ceremony live which brought an end to five days of talks. But weary Government leaders have had to give way on major provisions to avoid the alternative of outright war. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said it was "an exceptional agreement at an exceptional time". Parliamentary secretary Saad Hariri also put the best spin on the outcome saying "I know that the wounds are deep, and my injury is deep, but we only have each other to build Lebanon.”

Other parties in the region were less circumspect. Syrian President Bashar Assad claimed the talks as a victory and called Qatari Emir (and Prime Minister) al-Thani to congratulate him on the agreement. Iranian News Agency ISNA also congratulated the Qataris for their efforts. They quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini who said “The Islamic Republic of Iran hopes that the Doha accord ... will provide a blossoming and brilliant future for the Lebanese.”

Iran and Assad had good reason to be happy – their proxy Hezbollah made major inroads in the talks. They have almost doubled their seats in cabinet from 6 to 11. Crucially, it now has enough seats in cabinet to give it veto power in the new national unity government. It also benefits from a new electoral law that divides Lebanon into smaller districts which will give the country’s sects better representation. Shiites make up between 30 and 40 percent of the Lebanese population, yet are accorded only 18 percent of parliamentary seats. However, one downside is the need to disarm – the deal states that the "use of arms or violence is forbidden to settle political differences".

The deal also paves the way for parliament to elect a new president. Lebanon has been without a president since November 2007. Al-Thani said the deal will be "carried out immediately” and he believes the election of a new president will occur within 24 hours. The post is likely to be filled by Army chief Michel Suleiman. The army is seen as the one institute that stands above the fray. Suleiman is a good compromise candidate and despite being a Maronite Christian is regarded by the country's rival political factions as relatively neutral. More importantly he has kept the army on the sidelines of civil conflict.

Several key issues remain unresolved after Doha. Among them are what will happen to Hezbollah’s large weapons cache, and thorny question of Lebanon’s quixotic relationship with Syria. The Lebanese government blamed Syria for the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. But Syria has so far refused to co-operate with a UN investigation into the murder of Hariri and ten other government officials. In October 2005, UN investigator Detlev Mehlis told then Secretary-General Kofi Annan the plot to kill Hariri "could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security officials”.

Nevertheless, one immediate benefit of the outcome of the talks was the end of a 180 day Hezbollah sponsored blockade of the centre of Beirut. The protest began on 1, December 2006 when the opposition set up a sprawling tent city on streets leading to the offices of the Prime Minister Siniora, in a bid to force him to step down. The camp site paralysed the commercial heart of the city and large parts of the centre became a ghost town as dozens of restaurants and businesses were forced to shut down. Today, trucks started clearing the tent city under the orders of Opposition parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri. While protesters headed home, workers returned to the city to pick up the pieces. Fadi Harb, an employee at a nearby cell phone shop, said happily, "This agreement means calm, peace, security, stability and the future."

Lebanon's dance of blood

A Lebanese government minister was assassinated yesterday near Beirut. The Christian cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel was shot dead as his convoy drove through a Christian neighbourhood. Gunmen opened fire on his car, riddling it with bullets. The 34 year old Gemayel was rushed to hospital but died later of multiple gunshot wounds. The death of this strongly anti-Syrian minister will further inflame political tensions in this tinderbox country. Parliamentary majority leader Saad al-Hariri, son of assassinated former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, blamed Damascus for the killing saying, "we believe the hand of Syria is all over the place,” he said.

Gemayel comes from a Christian Maronite family steeped in Lebanese politics. He was named for his grandfather Pierre Gemayel who founded Christian Kataeb (Phalange) Party, initially as a youth movement, in 1936. Gemayel the Younger’s father was former president Amin Gemayel. His uncle Bashir Gemayel was also elected president but was killed in 1982 after Israel's invasion of Lebanon. Pierre was also a member of the Phalangists and industry minister in the current administration. He is the third anti-Syrian political figure to be assassinated since Al-Hariri's killing in February 2005.

The pro-Damascus opposition is led by Hezbollah, which is determined to topple what it sees as a pro-US government. Hezbollah and its allies are preparing for street demonstrations to topple the government of Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora which they accuse of being US allies. They also arguing that it has lost its legitimacy since Shi'ite Muslims are no longer represented. Six pro-Syrian ministers (two of which are Hezbollah appointees) have resigned in the last two weeks after the cabinet approved a UN statute for a tribunal to investigate the death of Rafik al-Hariri. Al-Hariri died in a suicide truck bombing in 2005 and the UN implicated senior Lebanese and Syrian security officials in the incident. Hezbollah have now released a statement denouncing the murder of Gemayel. They also called for calm, warning the population not to jump to conclusions.

Ultimately however, this is most likely the latest step in a Syrian effort to derail the international tribunal. It started with the mass resignations from the government. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Nasrallah called on his followers to take to the streets to precipitate the fall of the government. The ultimate aim is to demand enough ministerial portfolios to be able to hold a collective veto against cabinet decisions they don’t agree with. Michael Young, writing in The Washington Post believes Syrian President Assad is behind the Gemayel killing in order to undermine the complex tribunal set-up process. And in the complicated web of Lebanese politics, the killing may also undermine the Christian politician Michel Aoun who has attempted to seek Muslim support with his advocacy of secular politics. Lebanon’s fragile peace is dependent on a sectarian governmental structure, where the President is a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies a Shi'a Muslim.

That balance was disturbed when Aoun’s party, the Free Patriotic Movement, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Shi’te Hezbollah in February this year. The MOU had a 10-point plan that called for dialogue, consensual democracy, modern electoral law, combating corruption, uncovering the fate of those missing in action in Lebanon’s wars, returning Lebanese citizens from Israel, security reforms, sound relations with Syria, asserting the independence of Palestine, and the protection of Lebanon’s sovereignty. Although Aoun was feted by the Bush administration when he visited Washington last year, the MOU with Hezbollah has raised serious concerns in the US and Israel. The agreement was one reason why Israel attacked Lebanese Christian targets during the six-week incursion earlier this year. Aoun has also officially denounced the Gemayel killing.

Lebanese Sunni Mufti Sheikh Mohammad Rashid Qabbani also denounced the assassination of Gemayel. He is the spiritual leader of over 600,000 Lebanese which is 15-20% of the total population (this is an estimate as Lebanon has had no official census since 1932, due to the country’s extraordinary religious sensitivity). The majority of Sunnis are urban based and are less focussed on their religion as a political identifier. The main Sunni party Al-Murabitun (“the Sentinels”) is seen as pro-Syrian. However Qabbani denounced the killing saying, "the assassination of Pierre Gemayel amid circumstances of tension and defiance currently being observed in the country was a severe blow to all those who wished that the situations could not reach to this extent."

The other group represented in the Lebanese political hegemony are the Druze. The Druze are a small and secretive religious offshoot from Ismaili Islam that was started in the 10th century. They are also influenced by Greek philosophy and Christianity. Though they regard themselves to be part of Islam, this view is not shared by other Muslims as Druze do not follow the Five Pillars of Islam. The Druze are represented politically by the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt. The BBC described Jumblatt as Lebanon’s weathervane. He has constantly switched allegiances but has always ended up on the winning side. Since 2000 he has campaigned for Syria to relinquish control. Many suspect even the weathervane may be another target for Syrian-controlled assassins. Despite the threat, Jumblatt went to the hospital where Gemayel was taken after he was gunned down and called 'for calm and respect the memory of the martyr.' He also shot a warning across Syria’s bows: 'the international court is coming without a doubt.'