Europe sweats on Ireland's Lisbon Treaty referendum

Polls have opened in Ireland at 7am local time this morning for a crucial vote on the EU Lisbon Treaty. New Taoiseach Brian Cowen is leading a desperate campaign to get out the “yes” vote as opinion polls show the result could go either way. All EU countries are required to ratify the treaty which was signed in Lisbon in December last year and Ireland is the only one of the 27 member states which is allowing its citizens to vote on the matter. The referendum is needed because of a 1987 Supreme Court ruling that any major amendment to an EU treaty requires an amendment to the Irish constitution. With the other 26 parliaments likely to rubberstamp the treaty, Ireland’s three million people will be the defacto decision-makers for the whole of Europe.

Because of this proxy vote factor, the Irish poll has attracted Euro-sceptics from across the continent to campaign for a “no” vote. They have been joined by a motley coalition of strange bedfellows opposed to the treaty. The Times calls them a “bizarre ragbag opposition of maverick businessmen, right wing Roman Catholics, socialists, communists, pacifists and anarchists.” They include minor political parties Sinn Fein and the Socialists; UNITE, the Irish arm of Britain’s biggest trade union and Libertas, a privately funded group set up to fight the treaty.

Libertas claims to be a pro European movement “dedicated to campaigning for greater democratic accountability and transparency in the institutions of the EU”. Chairman Declan Ganley appealed yesterday to Irish people to reject the Lisbon Treaty saying that a "no" vote would "send our leaders back to the drawing board". Ganley said the “yes” campaigners (which include the three main political parties, and most of Ireland’s business and media leaders) have given no good reasons to support the Treaty. “I hope, and I firmly believe,” he said, “that the Irish people will vote "No" tomorrow, and that the work can immediately begin on constructing a better vision of Europe for all its 490 million citizens".

Ganley makes a good point about the “yes” campaign. The Lisbon Treaty is a dense 230 page document which few people in Ireland or elsewhere have read or understood. Essentially it amends the two main existing treaties which govern the EU in order to make the governing of an expanded EU easier. These are the Treaty Establishing the European Community (more commonly known as the EC Treaty); and the Treaty on European Union (known as the Maastricht Treaty). The key changes involve bureaucratic matters such as the appointment of the president of the European Council, a smaller European Commission, a redistribution of voting rights, new justice powers and the removal of key national vetoes.

The Irish referendum question is asking citizens whether they want to change the nation’s constitution to: a) allow Ireland to ratify the Treaty of Lisbon; b) allow Ireland to agree to certain decisions in the area of Freedom, Security and Justice in future with the approval of the Irish parliament; c) allow Ireland to agree at the European Council to certain changes in the EU treaties which might require further referenda or parliamentary approval and d) continue the present arrangements for Ireland’s military neutrality.

If the “no” vote wins, it will be the second time this decade Ireland has scuppered an EU treaty. In 2001 Irish voters rejected the Treaty of Nice (pdf) which prepared the ground for EU enlargement. A second vote was required two years later to pass the treaty including a new clause clarifying Irish neutrality. Many voters are just as concerned and bewildered this time about being railroaded into agreeing with something they don’t understand.

A rejection would mark an embarrassing setback for new Irish leader Brian Cowen. Cowen took over the top job after the surprise resignation of long-term Taoiseach Bertie Ahern in April. Since then Cowen has focussed his attentions on convincing the electorate to support the treaty. Cowen is known for his blunt speaking which has earned him the less than flattering nickname “Biffo” (Big Ignorant Fucker From Offaly). A defeat for the referendum would represent a personal defeat for Biffo and a serious blow to his authority as he tries to steer Ireland through some tough economic times ahead. Cowen and the rest of Europe will have fingers crossed as they watch the counting of the vote which takes place tomorrow.

Bertie Ahern resigns: the end of the road for Ireland's Teflon Taoiseach

Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern has announced his surprise resignation overnight to take effect on 6 May. He thanked his supporters who helped him serve for over 30 years as a Fianna Fail TD and said his announcement was solely motivated by what is in the best interests of the people and nothing to do with recent developments. Ahern was Taoiseach for 11 years making him Ireland’s second longest serving leader after Eamon de Valera. He also previously held most of the important cabinet portfolios including Finance, Labour and Industry and Commerce.

Despite Ahern’s speech, there is little doubt he was brought down by those “recent developments”. This is a reference to the Tribunal of Inquiry into Certain Planning Matters and Payments (commonly called the Mahon Inquiry) which over many months brought to light revelations and accusations centring on up to a dozen mini-scandals and unsatisfactorily explained financial transactions involving Ahern. Ahern gave contradictory evidence under oath much of which was contradicted by his former secretary Grainne Carruth.

While all the revelations of the Tribunal were small, their cumulative effect undone Ahern and ended his reputation as his party’s Mister Clean. Ahern was hugely popular for most of his regime, known simply as “Bertie” to most Irish people. For many years Ahern had established himself as the Teflon Taoiseach, since none of the numerous allegations about the rampant corruption under Fianna Fail’s former leader Charles Haughey ever seemed to affect him personally. But the remorseless digging of the Mahon Tribunal (in place for over ten years) has unearthed a plethora of mysterious bank accounts and puzzling payments.

There was mixed reaction overnight to his departure. Opposition Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said that much of Bertie Ahern's good work will be overshadowed by recent events linked to the Mahon Tribunal. He called on whoever succeeds him to call an election. Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore also welcomed Ahern’s departure saying he knew months ago that Ahern would find it impossible to continue because of the mounting conflicts and contradictions between his statements and Mahon evidence uncovered about his financial affairs.

However Irish president Mary McAleese led the many tributes to Ahern’s long reign as leader. She said his contributions to Ireland’s thriving economy and to peace in Northern Ireland were “hugely important. He deserves every credit for the work he has done," she said. “Bertie Ahern will be remembered as one of the outstanding politicians of his generation both nationally and internationally." Tony Blair said Ahern played a crucial role in bringing about peace in Northern Ireland, transformed relations between Britain and Ireland and presided over a sustained period of economic and social advance.

Tánaiste (Deputy Leader), Finance Minister and expected successor, Brian Cowen, said Ahern had enhanced Ireland’s standing in the world. He praised his contribution to the creation of a "peaceful, successful, confident and modern Ireland" and his work on the Northern Irish peace process and his presidency of the EU in 2004 when 10 new member states were admitted to the union. Cowen said Ahern’s forthcoming address to the US joint Houses of Congress on 30 April was an "extraordinary honour rarely bestowed". However Cowen’s key comment was when he said Ahern’s resignation showed he "once again put the interests of the nation first".

This clears the way for Cowen to take over position of Taoiseach and the leadership of Fianna Fail. The party’s national executive will meet today to discuss a schedule for electing a new leader. Cowen is overwhelming favourite and the leading Irish Independent newspaper calls him a "shoo-in" for the top jonb. Although fellow ministers Dermot Ahern (no relation to Bertie) and Mary Hanafin are still considering their options, it is likely Cowan will run unopposed.

He will face increasingly difficult times ahead as Ireland's economy is heading into recession. The collapse of a housing bubble coupled with the strong euro is raising unemployment and slowing growth. Maybe Ahern was right and it wasn’t the Mahon Tribunal that brought him down (after all he did win his third election victory as recently as last year). He may simply have seen that Ireland’s good times were coming to an end and he didn’t want to be at the helm when that happens.