Yanukovich and Tymoshenko to run-off for Ukraine president

Ukraine’s pro-western president Viktor Yushchenko has been defeated in the presidential election leaving opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to compete in a run-off ballot. Yanukovich led in first round of voting with 36.6 percent of the vote, while Tymoshenko picked up 25.8 percent, according to an exit poll conducted by local television channel Inter. The incumbent got only 5.2 percent leaving him in fifth place behind Sergei Tigipko, a former economy minister, who gained 13.5 percent. About two thirds of Ukraine’s voters turned out to vote. It will be ten days before the Central Election Commission releases official results but there is no doubt who will be in the run-off on 7 February.

Viktor Yushchenko’s crushing defeat was not unexpected after period of legislative deadlock, lagging reforms and economic doldrums. But it represents an end to the Orange Revolution which began in the last presidential election in 2004 when he was poisoned with dioxin. Both Yanukovich and Tymoshenko have signaled a return to pro-Russian politics. Both run-off candidates have also said they will abandon efforts for Ukraine to join NATO.

Russia remains the truculent big brother to which any winner will need to answer to. They curbed natural-gas deliveries to Ukraine three times in the last five years, withheld a new ambassador to Kiev and accused Yushchenko of supplying arms to Georgia during the war with Russia in August 2008. Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, called the first round result a “win-win situation” for his country. “Whoever becomes the next president will be much less ideological and more businesslike,” he claimed.

At first glance Yulia Tymoshenko does not seem like a natural Russian ally as a close confederate of Yushchenko during the Orange Revolution. Like Yushchenko her power base is in the west of the country. Her election priorities were a fairer society and more government efficiency, and she also pledged innovation-driven economic reform and better welfare provisions. But she has forged a close relationship with Vladimir Putin who personally negotiated an end to last year’s gas cut with her.

Apparently believing herself to be the reincarnation of Eva Peron, Tymoshenko claimed her biggest success during her two year tenure as Prime Minister was leading Ukraine out of financial crisis. She told Ukrainian TV last week the country has come out of the GFC “stronger, not shattered, not in pieces, not devoid of blood, or lost," She said her government had renewed the aviation industry, built a new hydroelectric station, and led the way with agriculture production. “[We] managed to reach leading positions in the agrarian sector in the world...[and] did not let the agrarian sector to drop its production even half a percent,” she said. “We are building what is needed for the Euro 2012.We modernized factories. Yes, it was difficult, but during a crisis, things are difficult."

But despite Tymoshenko’s rhetoric, Viktor Yanukovich remains the favourite to become the next president. He is a two time prime minister taking the role first from 2002-2004. This was the springboard to the presidential campaign of 2004 in which he was backed by Russia and early results gave him a victory. His win was then thrown out by the courts after street protests and he was condemned for fraud and abuse of power. But Yanukovich wasn’t finished as a political force. He bounced back two years later to regain the Prime Ministership in 2006 and is now is benefiting from disappointment with Yushchenko's failure to stop bickering with his supposed allies including Tymoshenko.

Yanukovich draws most of his support from the Russian-speaking areas of the industrial east and the south. He has promised an economic revival, new jobs, pay raises, judicial reforms and tax-free policies for small enterprises for five years. Yanukovich is a Russian speaker with only halting ability in Ukrainian. But he is no longer the Russian lapdog he was five years ago. Since 2004 Ukraine has effectively created a distinct new national consciousness by banning Russian on national television and in university entrance exams.

The runoff election will be tight and the role of third placed Sergei Tigipko will be vital. As well as being an economic minister, Tigipko was a central banker and a former adviser to both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko. Though officially staying neutral for now, he has in the past expressed interest in working as prime minister under either. He will probably be able to name his price to guarantee either candidate victory.

Two Viktors in Ukraine

Ukraine’s parliament appointed pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych (pictured left) as Prime Minister last week. The appointment was a compromise after a four month political crisis. The stand-off ended after arch rival and pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko (pictured right) finally agreed to share power after Yanukovych signed a pact aimed at preserving key areas of the president's policies.

Ukraine has been in political turmoil since a parliamentary ballot in March in which no party won a majority, although Mr Yanukovych's Party of Regions polled the most votes. The country is split geographical with Yanukovych drawing his support from the mainly Russian-speaking industrial south-east of Ukraine. In this part of the country, many voters are suspicious of the pro-Western agenda. Although the Party of Regions won the election, they did not win enough seats to form an outright government. With the help of the smaller Socialist Party, they were the leading party in the new parliament. President Yushchenko then had to decide whether he would nominate Yanukovych as prime minister, or call for fresh elections.

It represents a stunning comeback for the 56 year old Yanukovych whose fraud-tainted 2004 presidential victory was turned back by the Orange Revolution. Yushchenko eventually won the second round of that election after a Supreme Court-ordered revote. But now the pro-Western reformer must now work closely with with his former rival. Many Orange Revolution supporters see Yushchenko's move as a betrayal, and they have accused the president of weakness. Yanukovych however has promised to continue Ukraine's pro-Western course, uphold democratic freedoms and ensure the opposition has equal rights in elections.

This represents a full circle turn from the heady days of the Orange Revolution. The 2004 election was held in a highly charged atmosphere, with allegations of media bias, intimidation and even a poisoning of Yushchenko that was later confirmed to be the result of the poison dioxin. After Yanukovych was announced the winner, Yushchenko supporters and many international observers denounced the election as rigged. This led to a serious political crisis and wide scale acts of civil disobedience. Protesters adopted the orange as the official colour of the movement because it was Yushchenko campaign colour. Millions demonstrated daily in Kiev wearing orange ribbons and a large tent city was set up. The protests spread nationwide and sit-ins, and general strikes organized by the opposition helped eventually to annul the election result. The second run-off in December was agreed by domestic and international observers to be virtually problem-free and the result showed a clear victory for Yushchenko with 52 percent of the vote compared to Yanukovych's 44 percent.

Ukraine has struggled to find its feet since becoming independent in 1991. Although it has a population of 46 million people in one of the largest countries in Europe, its fate remains inextricably link with its slavic Big Brother in Moscow. Ukraine depends on Russia for most of its energy needs and the Russians also maintain their Black Sea Fleet in the Ukrainian Crimean city of Sevastopol. President Vladimir Putin visited Ukraine twice before the 2004 election to show his support for Yanukovych and congratulated him on his victory even before official election results were announced.

The country is also split in two along language lines. The west of the country speaks Ukrainian where as the east mostly speaks either Russian or Surzhyk which is a hybrid language of Russian vocabulary and Ukrainian grammar and pronunciation. Currently Ukrainian is the only official language although many media cater for Russian or even both languages. Russian is the mother tongue of 30% of the population. Yanukovych’s promise to make Russian a state language accounts for much of his support in the East. His balancing act will be to satisfy his own supporter base without alienating the pro-European Western half of the country.