ICG issues warning on Puntland

(Photo of Puntland's Bosaaso Airport by Sand Paper)

Somalia’s semi-autonomous region of Puntland has become the new flashpoint for the failed Horn of African state. Al Jazeera noted today that five visiting Muslim leaders from Pakistan were shot dead in execution-style yesterday as they prayed in a mosque in Somalia’s north-eastern most province. According to police, masked men dragged the Pakistanis out of the mosque after dawn prayers and opened fire on them. Puntland’s new president Abdurahman Mohamed Farole condemned the attack as a "terrible incident". The suspect and motive for the killing is unclear but Al Jazeera quoted an International Crisis Group (ICG) report that said Puntland could face a violent break-up if it does not deal with all of the semi-autonomous clans in the region.

Puntland declared its semi-autonomous status in 1998 but does not desire full independence from Somalia. The state arose out of the locally-based Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF) which was one of the opposition groups fighting the central state which collapsed in 1991. The SDDF warded off attacks from the war-scarred south and created Puntland with the support of community elders. At present Puntland acts as a wholly autonomous state, but its transitional constitution says it is a part of an anticipated Federal State of Somalia. It is viewed as one of Somalia’s most prosperous areas and was initially seen as a successful model of the “building blocks” federalist approach to re-establishing national stability.

However a new report by the ICG the called The Trouble with Puntland says the province is experiencing a three-year rise in insecurity and political tension. Problems date back to faction fighting after Puntland’s first president was deposed in 2001. The state is also the centre of most Somali pirate activity. The report blames poor governance and a collapse of the intra-clan cohesion and pan-Darood (northern Somali clan) solidarity that was responsible for the state’s initial creation. Criminal gangs not only run piracy but are also involved in arms trafficking, kidnapping, and the smuggling of people and contraband. The ICG says there is evidence of state complicity in these activities and doubts if Farole’s government has the political will to move against the gangs.

The ICG says the Puntland government must take advantage of the international attention about piracy to attract funds and expertise. These are needed to carry out comprehensive political, economic and institutional reforms to address fundamental problems of poor governance, corruption, unemployment and grinding poverty, especially in coastal villages. It also called on the international community to support Puntland by equipping and training a small coast guard and improve the general welfare and help poverty-stricken fishing communities.

However some of Somalia’s neighbours need to help out too. Ethiopia and Egypt have diametrically opposed positions on Puntland (and neighbouring Somaliland which wants full independence from Somalia). Whereas Ethiopia saw Puntland as a strategic ally, Egypt feared it would lead to Ethiopian domination of the area with consequential diminished access to Nile waters. Local warlords became adept at playing the two foreign powers off each other and switched sides with ease. As the ICG says, such floating alliances added unpredictability and fluidity to already complex and dangerous politics, and made the search for peace much harder.

The government stacked the judiciary, the civil service and the security apparatus and by 2005 corruption was endemic. This had devastating impact on business as traders needed to pay large bribes to import food, fuel and consumer goods. Similar problems plagued the livestock and fishing industries. Transport and food items became more expensive as a result which increased poverty and malnutrition. Hyperinflation aggravated by severe drought, pushed Puntland into a lengthy humanitarian emergency. As well as governance issues, Puntland also has problems with a secret new constitution that puts the province on a plot to secession, territorial disputes with Somaliland, relations with Mogadishu, threat from Islamist dissidents, and piracy that has attracted global interest.

The ICG has suggested a number of key reforms particularly in governance, security and border demarcation. In the area of governance it suggests a more transparent constitution, an independent electoral commission, a committee to demark boundaries, and an electoral court to adjudicate on disputes. In security reform, the government needs to balance its budget to pay soldiers and police fairly and introduce professionalism, transparency, and civilian oversight into the security agencies. And as for borders, the ICG warns that the international community needs to move quickly to defuse a growing crisis in the disputed regions of Sool/Sanaag.

Failure, say the ICG, may result in the violent break-up of Puntland, as rival clans seeking autonomy the centre to carve out their own enclaves. It says this process is already underway in areas such as Sool and Sanaag. “Unless the government enacts meaningful reforms and again reaches out to all clans, it may become unstoppable”, warn the ICG.

Somaliland requests international recognition

Somaliland has sent a formal request to the African Union asking to be recognised as an independent state. Somaliland is a former British colony with a population of 3.5 million which broke away from Somalia in 1991. No country yet formally recognises the de facto nation although several keep an unofficial diplomatic presence in Somaliland's capital Hargeisa.

Somaliland unilaterally declared independence four months after the overthrow of former Somali dictator Mohamed Siad Barre. Since then Somaliland has enjoyed relative security and prosperity compared to the anarchy that has descended on the rest of Somalia. There are no gunmen, roadblocks and bombed-out buildings on the streets of Hargeisa. The breakaway republic also has its own constitution and has held successful democratic elections. The state is mostly peaceful, though there were border clashes last month with troops from neighbouring Puntland, another semi-autonomous Somali region.

Earlier this month Somaliland President Dahir Rayale Kahin ruled out reuniting with Somalia and also cast doubt over the interim government's claim of victory in Mogadishu. He also warned Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf against any belligerent moves against Somaliland. "Abdullahi Yusuf cannot come here. It is a day dream that Abdullahi Yusuf is coming and that he will govern Hargeisa." He said.

Kahin has been pressing other African leaders to recognise his country. Kahin is also encouraged by Sweden’s move in March to treat Somaliland as a self-governing area. The Swedish government stated that "Somaliland which takes politically a unique position shall be treated for the first time as a self-governing area”. While the statement stops short of formal recognition, it is a huge step forward with Sweden’s plan likely to have the backing of the EU.

Somaliland has a long and distinct history apart from Somalia. It was dominated by Egypt in the 19th century until British soldiers came across the Gulf from Aden to establish their rule. They founded the protectorate of British Somaliland in 1887. Britain showed little interest in its new African possession. They called its then-capital Berbera "Aden's butcher's shop". It supplied the meat to the strategic British garrison across the gulf.

Britain granted independence to the colony on 26 June 1960 and Somaliland was immediately recognised by 35 countries. Its independence lasted five days. At the same time, Italy granted independence to Italian Somaliland. Under the guidance of the exiting colonisers, the two governments in Hargeisa and Mogadishu agreed on a plan of unity on the basis that Somalis are the same people, speak the same language and have a common religion. They came together as the Republic of Somalia effective 1 July 1960 with a referendum in both parts to ratify the new Republic’s constitution within a year. But most people in the north boycotted the referendum. The seeds for an independent Somaliland were sown.

Mohammed Siad Barre swept to power in a 1969 coup. His rule rekindled discontent in Somaliland which formed a resistance movement against him. By 1988 the two sides of Somalia were locked in civil war which resulted in more than 20,000 killed and the eventually overthrow of Barre. The Somali National Movement (SNM) met to declare independence for Somaliland and named Abdirahman Ahmed Ali "Tur" as interim president for two years. Mohammed Ibrahim Egal was elected President of the Republic of Somaliland in 1993 a position he held until 2001. A referendum in that year saw 97 per cent vote in favour of full independence.

On 18 May 2007 Somaliland will mark 16 years since it proclaimed independence from Somalia. Although no country recognises its sovereignty, its long-term ability to function as a constitutional democracy distinguishes it from the majority of entities with secessionist claims, and a small but growing number of governments in Africa and the West have shown sympathy for its cause. It satisfies all the criteria for independence. But they remain stymied by an African domino theory. The African Union holds the principle: "respect of borders existing on achievement of independence." The AU is reluctant to recognise independence, no matter how justified, for fear that it would increase pressure by other groups in Africa to support changes in their inherited borders. Somaliland remains trapped in Africa's colonial history.

a solution for Somalia?

Somalia is a basket case in the Horn of Africa. On Thursday June 22, Somalia's president and the Islamist leaders who have taken control of the capital Mogadishu agreed to recognise each other after a meeting in the Sudanese capital Khartoum. That possibly means they'll just shake hands next time they meet.

Somalia is a de jure state. De jure is Latin for in principle. It means Somalia has no recognized central authority or government nor any other feature associated with an established independent state. De facto authority is spread across various warlords as well as at least two unrecognised countries in Somaliland and Puntland.

Over a thousand years ago, Muslim Arabs and Persians established trading posts along Somalia's coast. Mogadishu was established as a trading station. It was a significant spot on the gap between the Red and the Arabian seas. Egypt dominated the area until the 1870s until the British based in Aden parted the Red Sea and turned Somalia into a colonial protectorate. The Italians held their bit of Somalia called unimaginative Italian Somaliland. They also held Ethiopia in a dress rehearsal for the Second World War. In 1940 Mussolini’s troops invaded British Somaliland across the border from Ethiopia. The invasion force was 175,000 strong and easily overwhelmed the defence force. Churchill, worried that the territory had been abandoned without a fight, criticized General Wavell head of Middle East Command, for the rapid defeat of the Commonwealth forces. Wavell countered that this was a textbook withdrawal in the face of superior numbers and said to Churchill, “A bloody butcher’s bill is not the sign of a good tactician.” It was the only campaign the Italians won unaided in World War II.

Their glory didn’t last long. Barely a year later, a South African led amphibious invasion took next door Italian Somaliland. They took Eritrea a month later before British Somaliland fell after a seaborne assault staged from Aden. The force moved on to take Ethiopia. Under pressure from the US, the British signed an agreement with Haile Selassie acknowledging Ethiopian sovereignty in January 1942.

Somaliland remained British territory. It finally gained independence as the State of Somaliland on 26 June 1960. Within a few days it united with Italian Somaliland to form a new Somali Republic on 1 July 1960. The new united nation was renamed Somalia.

On the same day representatives of the two territories elected Dr Aden Abdullah Osman, ex Italian Somali president), to be the first President of the new combined Republic. In the 1960s the government was confronted with a poorly developed economy and a nationalist movement that wanted to see a “Greater Somalia” of Issa people encompassing the Somali-dominated areas of Kenya, French Somaliland (now Djibouti), and Ethiopia. The nomadic existence of many Somali herders and the ill-defined frontiers worsened the problem. Somalia and Ethiopia went to war in 1964, and Kenya became involved as conflict dragged on to 1967. French Somaliland voted to continue their association with France. In 1969, President Abd-i-rashid Ali Shermarke was assassinated. The new ruler was Major General Mohammed Siad Barre. The major general set up a one party state with strong ties to the Arab League and the Soviet bloc.

The Soviets, however backed the other horse Ethiopia in a border squabble with Somalia. The war was fought in a desert called Ogaden. Although Ethiopia repulsed a Somalian invasion, the war dragged on until a peace accord in 1988. Ogaden remains a Somali populated area of Ethiopia. The effects of the war combined with drought has caused massive famine.

Warfare among rival factions within Somalia intensified. The regime of Siad Barre was ousted in January 1991; turmoil, factional fighting, and anarchy have followed in the years after the major general. That same year northern clans declared an independent Republic of Somaliland (believing themselves the inheritors of British Somaliland). Although not recognized by any government, it has maintained a stable existence, aided by a secure ruling clan and economic infrastructure left behind by overseas military assistance. The British are unsurprisingly favourable to this entity as an ex-colony. In 2004, the British Minister for African Affairs, Chris Mullin, on a visit there, told BBC Somali Service that "the Republic of Somaliland fulfils all the criteria for recognising states".

In Mogadishu, Mohammed Ali Mahdi was proclaimed president by one group and Mohammed Farah Aidid by another, as fighting between rival factions continued. Civil war and the worst African drought of the century created a devastating famine in 1992, resulting in a loss of some 300,000 lives. The UN brokered a ceasefire. In 1992, a mostly American military force attempted to restore political stability and establish free and open food-aid routes by protecting ports, airports, and roads in a high media profile action. A Somali ambush killed 23 Pakistani peacekeepers. In retaliation, US forces tried and failure to capture Aidid and 18 US troops and several thousand Somalies were killed in what became known as the Battle of Mogadishu.

As a result, the UN withdrew its forces in 1995. Matters were complicated further in 1998 when a north eastern region declared itself an autonomous state under the name of Puntland. Unlike Somaliland, it does not seek outright independence from Somalia.
Southwestern Somalia has also broken away in a similar fashion but again has not asked for complete independence.

Back in what was left of Somalia, clan elders and other senior figures appointed Abdulkassim Salat Hassan president at a 2000 conference in Djibouti. A transitional government was set up but could not unite the country. In 2004 after the mandate of the previous government expired, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, a former leader of Puntland, was chosen by Somalia's interim parliament as the country's new president. The new government is the 14th attempt since 1991 but has no civil service or government buildings. Their task is made harder now that Islamists control much of the south including Mogadishu after their militias kicked out warlords who had ruled for 15 years.

Arab League diplomats are now trying to reconcile Somalia's transitional government with the Islamicists in Mogadishu. They met representatives from both sides this week. However, discussions between the two parties were yet to take place. The world waits for Somalia to get its collective act together. However suspicion of Somali links with global terrorism further complicates the picture.

If a new national government takes power in Somalia, it would be much easier to arrest and deport terror suspects. The current situation hasn't stopped Mogadishu from getting first class telecommunicates systems. Somalia is unique in that it constitutes the sole existing case in which a country has continued to exist in spite of 15 years of continuous statelessness. Another major issue is the status of Somaliland. Puntland and the others in the Somali split don't want full statehood; Somaliland is the only one who does. The issue of their recognition is crucial to stability in the tinderbox region. British support may be a crucial factor.

But in the meantime until the world decides the country is ready, clan rules apply in a billion dollar economy.