Barnaby Grudge: Joyce considers his options

The maverick Queensland National senator Barnaby Joyce has been hogging his fair share of headlines in the last week. Today the Federal Government gleefully reacted to his comments that carbon emissions trading would do nothing to counter climate change and would cost jobs. Joyce took the argument to its Godwinesque conclusion when he compared climate change sceptics with Holocaust deniers and said he would not be "goosestepping" along with environmentalists. Agriculture Minister Tony Burke then called on Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull to get Joyce to retract his comparisons with Nazi Germany. But given that Joyce has crossed the floor many times against his Coalition colleagues, it is doubtful Turnbull has much influence over him. It is also possible Joyce made the comments as part of his own ambitions to replace the Nationals' ineffectual leader Warren Truss.

Joyce is up for Senate re-election in 2010 but has recently expressed his desire to cross to the lower house and contest for the party leadership after an endorsement from former PM John Howard. Joyce has publicly vowed to consider contesting a seat not held by the Coalition if it will boost his profile and his party’s election chances. However, the most logical seat for him to represent would be his St George hometown seat of Maranoa held by the veteran National Bruce Scott. The problem is that Scott is not in a hurry to resign and is no fan of Joyce. Today he came out swinging and told The Australian that "if Barnaby Joyce wants to boost our chances by taking a seat off Labor or an independent, that's fine."

But Scott may yet have to deal with internal pressure to stave off a Joyce assault on his territory. Maranoa is Nationals heartland and their safest seat with a massive 21 percent margin. Scott has held the seat since 1990 and will be 67 at the time of the next election. As one staunch National party member told the rural news site Agmates recently “Bruce is a really nice man, but he’s had his go, time to move over and let someone else have a shot - especially if it’s Barnaby". He continued, “If Bruce won’t stand aside, someone in the Party needs to tap him on the shoulder.”

Today, Scott Steel at Pollytics weighed in with a delicious pummelling of the time-serving current Maranoa member. He said Bruce Scott was “channeling Charlton Heston’s greatest NRA convention moments and giving [Joyce] the 'from my cold, dead hands' spiel.” He went on to say a Barnaby Joyce leadership represents the best chance for the National Party to rescue itself and position itself toward a more independent line by “doing something profound in Nats circles – actually representing the interests of their constituents.” Independence, says Steel, is the only way the Party can prevent extinction. However he also points out the double dilemma Joyce poses for his party. Firstly, finding a lower seat house to suit him and secondly, defending his seat in the Senate at the next election.

The Australian’s Queensland political reporter Sean Parnell believes Joyce may need to switch state to achieve his lower house ambitions. Parnell quoted fellow Queensland National senator Ron Boswell who suggested that he take on independent MP (and former National member) Tony Windsor in the NSW seat of New England. Although Joyce does have farming interests in the seat, it is likely Boswell is being disingenuous in order to focus attention away from more winnable Queensland seats especially ones held by National MPs who dislike Joyce’s perceived independent stance in parliament.

Joyce himself said he would more than likely stay in Queensland. Ben Raue, writing at The Tally Room, proposes the seat of Flynn which borders Joyce’s home seat of Maranoa. Labor gained an eight percent swing in Flynn in the last election to win the seat but it now hangs on a knife-edge with a swing of just 0.2 percent needed to win it back. Also as Raue points out, a redistribution is likely to pull Flynn further away from urban centres, which could be enough to make it a notional Nationals seat.

Meanwhile the Mackay Daily Mercury suggests that Joyce is eyeing off James Bidgood’s seat of Dawson. Bidgood became the first Labor MP for the Mackay seat in 30 years when he took it in the 2007 election with a 13.6 percent swing from the National’s De-Anne Kelly. The seat could be won back with a swing of less than 4 percent. Joyce has himself admitted Dawson is one of his best options.

However as Scott Steel says, the historical volatility of North Queensland and uncertainty following the re-drawing of electoral boundaries make the likes of Flynn and Dawson problematic seats for party leaders to hold when they should be concentrating on national issues – as Joyce’s recent mentor John Howard found out to his cost in the last election. Maranoa is the best option, but it means carrying out the difficult task of removing the deadwood Bruce Scott.

Queensland launches Liberal National Party

A new political party was launched in Queensland yesterday as the long-touted state merger of the Liberals and the Nationals finally came to pass. The executive of the new Liberal National Party (LNP) met in Brisbane and anointed former Nationals boss Bruce McIver as State President and former Liberal powerbroker Gary Spence as his deputy. The launch also introduced the new leadership team of Leader Lawrence Springborg, and Deputy Leader Mark McArdle. Like the presidential roles, the leadership and deputy roles were filled by former Nationals and Liberal leaders respectively, showing that Nationals remain the more powerful force in the combined entity.

Speaking in front of a thousand cheering fans, McIver said the launch marks the birth of a new era in Queensland politics. “The LNP is determined to offer the people of Queensland…a credible alternative to the current Government,” he said. “And a team with vision, built around the leadership of Lawrence Springborg and Mark McArdle.” New party leader Springborg said the creation of the LNP had ended conservative disunity which he described as the Labor government's “greatest asset”.

In his acceptance speech Springborg outlined four major areas the new party will focus on in the lead-up to the next election due in 2009. The four areas were: roads, hospitals, education and water. Springborg had the key backing of pro-merger Liberal MPs Tim Nicholls and Steve Dickson. He also received the endorsement of Liberal Brisbane mayor Campbell Newman who urged Liberal delegates to ignore calls by the party's federal president Alan Stockdale to delay the merger vote. Springborg attacked Stockdale and said the vote “can never be stopped and stymied by a few faceless men and women who seek to stand in the way.”

Embattled Federal Liberal leader Brendan Nelson came out in favour of the merger yesterday saying it would significantly strengthen the prospects of the conservatives defeating the Bligh Labor Government at the next state election. "We will all now work to see the best interests of the non-Labor side of politics are best served, both in Queensland and nationally," he said. Nelson’s statement came despite the last-minute Liberal moves to defer the vote over dispute over who would become president of the new party.

Crikey’s Bernard Keane says the LNP is merely the National Party with a Liberal rump. Apart from getting to go first in the name of the new party, Keane says the party is the “same clutch of dribbling hicks and divided incompetents [Queensland has] rejected for a decade.” He says that many Liberal members are now considering bailing out rather than joining a party that shares none of its basic beliefs. “The Nationals exist to promote the systematic abuse of government revenue and regulatory arrangements for the benefit of selected, primarily regional, industries and businesses,” he said. “Their record in government is one of corruption, rorting, rank incompetence and intolerance.”

But surprising or not, others accept the new arrangements, albeit with raised eyebrows. Andrew Bartlett called the merger a fait accompli and believes the merger will take the combined party further to the right. He said the new party fits comfortably with the “fundamentalist conservative right-wing mindset” of the Bjelke-Petersen era. But perceptively, Bartlett also points out that that the merger is less about ideology than it is about marketing. “Like any major party, it will try to focus on a few key messages and themes that it hopes will appeal to a majority of the electorate,” he said, “a large part of which will seek to focus on tapping into and building upon dissatisfaction with their opponent.”

Of course to do so, they will need to overcome dissatisfaction with their own side. As Poll Bludger points out, the new party structure over-represented rural and regional areas “in time-honoured Queensland style”. The newly elected Liberal state president Mal Brough has declared he will not join the new party. Brough maintains he is still officially the president of the Queensland Liberals until the federal party ratifies the merger. After that, he says he is undecided. "There's absolutely a career in politics if I want it, because that has been made very clear to me [by] my colleagues down south,” he said. “But whether I intend to do that or not is another thing altogether, that's not a decision I've taken.”

Born Again Borg: Lawrence Springborg rises from the Nationals' Ashes

In a transparently desperate and uninspiring move, the 17 parliamentary members of the Queensland National Party have re-appointed Lawrence Springborg as its leader. Springborg previously led the party from 2003 to 2006 and resigned in 2006 after his second comprehensive election defeat at the hands of Labor. He now replaces the hapless Jeff Seeney who never faced the voters as party leader. Springborg regains the leadership with the Nationals polling at just nine per cent and he is considered the most attractive proposition to lead a proposed new state-based conservative force that might emerge from the Queensland Nationals and Liberals.

The news came just a couple of days after Springborg said a leadership coup was "not on the radar" despite being approached by parliamentary colleagues to challenge Jeff Seeney. But soon-to-be-deposed leader Seeney was not fooled and knew the challenge was just under that radar. He accused Springborg of manoeuvring behind the scenes. "I'm particularly disappointed that Lawrence Springborg has chosen to pursue this issue in the media,” he said. Springborg's machinations worked to perfection and he won yesterday's vote in some comfort.

The scenario is similar to what transpired in 2003. At that time Springborg was touted as a replacement leader for Mike Horan. The Nationals were polling poorly at 8 or 9 per cent and Horan was perceived of being incapable of mounting any serious opposition to then Labor leader Peter Beattie. Springborg (who was deputy leader under Rob Borbidge) urged a party ballot and put his name forward as leader under the label of “progressive conservative”. He won the party ballot easily by nine votes to three. Then just 34 with four young children, he represented a generational shift for the Nationals. He immediate announced then (as he did yesterday) his most urgent goal was to unite with the Queensland Liberals.

Of course, that dream was scuppered at a federal level by Prime Minister John Howard. Now the ambitions are just state based. According to anonymous acerbic Queensland psephologist Possum Comitatus, Springborg’s dubious prize is to occupy one of the state’s two opposition leadership positions. He believes any merger is doomed to failure due to the radically different supporter bases of the two parties. He also correctly points out that it doesn’t matter what the Nationals the next non-Labor leader of Queensland will be a Liberal. The coalition needs to win another unlikely 20 seats from Labor to win power and these seats are in the populous south-east of the state where only the Liberals are capable of winning.

While the Possum was scathing, fellow Queensland political pundit Mark Bahnitsch conceded Springborg is “marginally better placed” than Feeney to take up the fight to Labor leader Anna Bligh (who herself has yet to be tested at the polls as leader). But that was where the praise ended. Bahnitsch called Springborg a “single note politician” due to his infatuation with the merger with the Liberals, a prospect doomed to failure anyway. Bahnitsch also castigated the laziness of the Nationals frontbench which he said was content with the spoils of opposition.

This laziness is an arrow pointed straight at Springborg himself. Tracey Arklay and John Wanna’s analysis of the 2004 Queensland election defeat was a damning indictment of his inactivity. Arklay and Wanna said that Springborg allowed Peter Beattie to run a “non-campaign”. Defending 66 out of 89 seats in parliament, it suited Beattie to avoid campaigning and adversarial politics to reduce the risk of a protest vote. However the strategy would not have worked unless supported by a compliance and supine opposition. Springborg entered the election with low expectations, failed to challenge the Premier and relied on a vain hope of a “natural correction”. The result was a second successive landslide win for Labor. Springborg didn’t do much better in 2006 against an even more tired Beattie Government. It beggars belief that anyone thinks he will make any further ground against Labor rejuvenated with Anna Bligh’s leadership.