Nine More Deaths

(Memorial Brigade Hill, Kokoda Track, Papua New Guinea by Arthur Chapman)

Parliament was hushed today as Malcolm Turnbull asked PM Kevin Rudd today about the fate of nine Australians among 13 people to die in a plane crash in PNG. While my deepest sympathies go out to the bereaved families concerned, I have to ask why this Dorothy Dixer question was addressed to, and answered by, the Prime Minister of Australia? I appreciate that the proximity of so many deaths to the Kokoda Trail where Australians troops repelled Japan in 1942 gave the crash a hallowed feel. I am also sympathetic to Malcolm Turnbull’s genuine grief around his own father’s similar death. Yet I am not convinced the crash was the question of such national importance it was afforded today. Stephen Smith’s foreign affairs department could have handled this adequately.

If that seems harsh, consider whether Turnbull (or any other parliamentarian) would ever open Question Time calling for a nation to mourn when the next nine people die on Australian roads. He or she wouldn't have to wait long. As the average of almost five deaths a day shows, nine people will probably die in the 48 hours following tomorrow’s likely defeat of the federal government's emissions trading scheme in the Senate.

And unlike the fickle fate that ended the lives of the 13 people in foggy mountains short of a PNG runway, a discussion of the meaning of Australian road statistics is absolutely relevant to what Turnbull and Rudd were supposed to be discussing today. Car driving habits are one of the main reasons Australia’s carbon emissions are 4.5 times the global average, just behind the US. And car deaths are the result of car habits.

This is the selfishness at the heart of our behaviour that our government and opposition seem incapable of addressing. And so while Liberals and Labor alike are noble and bi-partisan in the grief of an overseas accident, neither seem interested in forging an agreement over a coherent and comprehensive response to climate change ahead of the December Copenhagen conference.

There is no point in waiting for that conference to act. As Rudd was (probably deliberately) overheard telling the Danish PM a few weeks ago, Copenhagen won’t change anything. It is likely the Chinese and Indians won’t agree to 50 percent targets by 2050 and can point to the selfish behaviour of western countries like Australia in defence of their own actions. The best Australia can do is take a carbon reduction policy to the table. Such a policy may not be perfect and will likely need fine tuning over the years to come. But it will be a start and it will get companies thinking seriously about the externalities of their actions.

That campaign eventually needs to focus on people as well as companies. There is overwhelming endorsement for action - roughly three out of every four Australians want their politicians to take more action about it. But these people need to be shown they can do something about it too.

According to the ABS, over 80 percent of all Australians journeys are made by car. Australian roads are so crowded it is a miracle that only five people die in accidents every day. It is this culture that Turnbull and Rudd need to change if Australia is to ever get serious about climate change action. In 2005, the transport sector accounted for about 14 per cent of Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions. This means more than just agreeing on a pollution permits scheme (and god knows that is difficult enough) but a concerted campaign to change the way Australians live their stratified lives.

A ban on car ads on television would be a good starting point. Every corporately-funded TV station (including SBS) shows at least one carmaker ad every commercial break seductively selling its wares and these are supplemented by ads for oil companies, tyre makers, and various car accessories. While all these activities are correctly legal (as is smoking) they should be banned from mass media ads as they promote a lifestyle that is increasing bad for people, and bad for the planet. It is also an increasingly arrogant practice. New AAMI research has found that 83 per cent of drivers believe yelling, swearing and gesturing rudely are justifiable responses to traffic indiscretions by other road users. Most drivers blame congestion for blowing their top. The human toll is growing - it is time driving was reined in. How many deaths will it take for Turnbull and Rudd to be bi-partisan about tackling this problem?

Turnbull defeats Nelson to become new Liberal Party leader

Malcolm Turnbull is the new Liberal party leader after this morning’s surprise leadership spill rebounded on Brendan Nelson. Nelson almost salvaged a mostly disastrous ten months at the helm of the Opposition with his audacious move to call the spill last night. It caught the overseas-returning Turnbull on the hop while simultaneously denying Party-pooper Peter Costello the media attention his book launch so richly did not deserve. But the writing seemed on the wall after the ABC’s 7.30 Report revealed Turnbull had the numbers. And so it proved in the party room vote which Turnbull won by 45 votes to 41.

The result almost exactly overturns the margin he was defeated by in November’s leadership election after the Coalition was tossed out of office. It looks like at most just one or two people have changed their vote in the meantime. However crucially, the make-up of the party in the Senate has changed since 1 July with six members retiring and four new incoming members.

The political narrative also changed rapidly last week after it became clear that Peter Costello was merely using the leadership speculation to fuel sales of his newly-published memoirs. Nelson’s supporters immediately rallied around their boss demanding he be given “clear air” to establish his leadership. However with the latest opinion poll still only giving him a 16 percent approval rating, the air remained heavily polluted around the good doctor and the narrative quickly moved on to the expected Turnbull spill.

Although he didn't control them, the sudden turn of events has nicely suited the member for Wentworth. As Turnbull did not call the spill, no-one can now accuse him of putting the knife into Nelson’s back. And he has always been open about his long-term goals. While the margin of victory was narrow, his election is likely to immediately halt Liberal leadership speculation and turn the focus back on the Government.

For Kevin Rudd, Turnbull’s victory is probably the most challenging outcome. Nelson was an embarassingly inept leader who failed to land a heavy blow against the Government. Though a Government minister in the Howard administration, Turnbull is not as tainted as Costello would have been over the tattered economic record Labor inherited. And Turnbull will be likely to commit to a “small target” strategy agreeing with the Government in the main, on the intent of its environmental and social agenda. What Turnbull will do is provide a strong intellectual focus that “Emo Man” Nelson so conspicuously failed to deliver in his tumultuous months at the top.

Despite the departure of Australia's answer to Comical Ali, Labor will still be favourite to win the next federal election in 2010 or earlier. But the possibility of their becoming a one-term Government rose with today’s news. These are tough economic times for any Government, and the tide is turning against Labor in the states. A likely heavy (and thoroughly justified) defeat in NSW in the 12 months leading up to the election would give Turnbull further momentum. On the positive side, the difficult task of a political sell for an emissions trading scheme may now win bi-partisan support. All in all, today’s result is a good one for the health of Australian democracy that sees heavyweights now leading both major parties. Most mercifully of all, the media will finally have to find something else to talk about now that Dr Nelson has been put out of his long, slow and lingering misery.

Malcolm in the middle: Liberal sprinklings of Turnbull

With the Australian parliament set to resume tomorrow, ABC’s Four Corners set the scene nicely with an enjoyable review of the “brilliant career” of Opposition Treasury Spokesman Malcolm Turnbull. The review is timely. With Liberal leader Brendan Nelson about to fall on his own sword and Peter Costello too busy selling his book, Turnbull is about to complete a meteoric rise to party leadership after just four years in parliament. And apart from serving up the occasional doozy such as the “the winter in Malcolm’s tent”, the ABC provided an enlightening coverage of most of the Turnbull bases in their unauthorised review. Turnbull refused to co-operate with the ABC despite initial agreement. But several key Liberal powerbrokers were prepared to go on camera. Tony Abbott, himself with longer-term leadership aspirations, said “Malcolm is one of those people who is destined for great things” and called him a determined and focussed human being.

As Abbott well knew with the question ABC asked him, these features are conspicuously absent in Peter Costello. But like Costello, the biggest prize of all may yet elude him. Turnbull is the richest man in parliament but money can’t buy him what he most wants: the Prime Ministership. Even as Liberal leader, he is likely to lose the next election. Will he hang around until 2013 to find out if he can get the top job? Or is it time for another audacious move and suggest a national government with Labor? After all, his views on climate change and the economy are not substantially different from Rudd’s. It seems even left-wing Phillip Adams thinks the “Bollinger Bolshevik” is the best man for the job.

Turnbull, as Adams says, has always been a winner. Malcolm Turnbull was a Rhodes Scholar who paid for his law and arts degree by working as a political journalist. After being appointed to the bar, Kerry Packer appointed him legal counsel when he was just 28 years old. He defended Packer in the 1984 Costigan royal commission. Confidential case summaries were leaked to the National Times which revealed a prominent businessman codenamed “Goanna” was accused of allegations of drug trafficking and maybe murder. It was Turnbull’s strategy for Packer to identify himself as the “Goanna” and turn public sympathy in his favour.

But it was the Spycatcher trial which made him a star. Fellow legal eagle and party front bencher Julie Bishop told Four Corners “we marvelled at a young Australian barrister taking on the British Government". Turnbull revelled in the “larrikin” role, brash and more aggressive than anything ever seen in an Australian court. Margaret Thatcher dispatched top civil servant Sir Robert Armstrong to give evidence. Turnbull tied him in knots and made him admit the British government were “economical with the truth”. The subsequent victory won Turnbull notoriety and professional esteem in equal measure.

Flush with success, Turnbull left the law and moved to high finance. He established investment banking firm Whitlam Turnbull and co with Nick Whitlam (Labor giant Gough’s son) and long-term NSW Premier Neville Wran. The company was funded with $25m from Packer and another $25m from fixer Larry Adler. It was hugely successful and involved in most of the major media deals in the 1990s. The company was heavily associated with Packer’s bid to take over Fairfax in 1991 in an attempt to gain access to their “rivers of gold” - the Melbourne and Sydney classified ads. But the bid proved extremely acrimonious. Turnbull fell out with Packer and fellow consortium member Conrad Black. Turnbull then became an active player in the bid by representing US bond holders who held $450m of potential worthless junk bonds in Fairfax. When MPs from all parties signed petitions criticising the bid, the Hawke Government was forced to hold a parliamentary enquiry. Packer was called to give evidence and was not happy. “I appear here this afternoon reluctantly” he said. He called the enquiry’s bluff. “You’re either going to have to believe me or call me a liar". The enquiry backed off. But Packer was lying; there was “an arrangement” for him to take over. Packer had lined up his offsider Trevor Kennedy to become Fairfax CEO.

Turnbull got revenge for Packer freezing him out of the bid by snitching on him. Turnbull secretly gave Trevor Kennedy’s private notes of his Packer dealings to the Australian Broadcasting Tribunal enquiry chairman Peter Westaway. Sydney University media academic Rod Tiffen says Turnbull feared for his life if anyone found out. But no one made the connection, and the ammunition killed Packer. Two days later Packer withdrew from the Fairfax bid. The leaked notes had showed Packer was lying to parliament. Tiffen said what Turnbull did helped Australian democracy though “whether he did it for that reason we’ll never know”. He certainly helped his bond holders who got their money back and also helped Conrad Black, who briefly won Fairfax. Black is now in jail after his financial shady dealings were exposed. He wrote to Four Corners from his prison in Florida. “I remember Four Corners with some amusement,” he began, “I knew (Turnbull) as an aggressive and opportunity lawyer. Kerry though he was talented and energetic but impetuous and unpredictable… Fifteen years ago there may be have been some questions about his judgement but that may not be the case any more”.

Black may be being disingenuous. Because Turnbull’s judgement does remain in question. Tony Abbott called him “determined and focussed, at best remarkably genial and charming companion” but at worst “a bit of a volcano”. Those who worked with Turnbull in the Australian Republican campaign saw all these sides of his character. Tim Costello, who wanted a different republican model, says Turnbull “bought the franchise.” And Turnbull had put a lot of his money and time into the exercise - $2m of his own money. But despite the idea of an Australian Republic have overwhelming support in 1998, it failed in a referendum a year later. Another pro-Republic opponent Phil Cleary said Turnbull “pranced around like a character of an Oscar Wilde play.” The divisions played into the hands of the monarchist Prime Minister John Howard and the public voted Turnbull’s model down. Greg Barns says Turnbull was misjudged and called him the “intellectual powerhouse” of the campaign.

But the powerhouse was deeply embittered and called Howard “the PM who broke people’s hearts”. Yet when he launched his own political career four years later, John Howard helped him do it. Howard supported Turnbull for a branch stack preselection in his home exclusive Sydney seat of Wentworth. According to Alexander Downer (who like Tony Abbott, did not support the move) “we felt sorry for his predecessor (Peter King) but he hadn’t made impact, [and] wasn’t a strong performer.” Howard forgave Turnbull the republican tongue-lashing and overruled his lieutenants to elect a star recruit, and a man who was most definitely, a strong performer.

But since winning election in 2004 Turnbull has had to learn the basic skills of politics, including the art of humility. For his maiden speech he bussed hundreds of supporters in to listen to him re-invent his image. "I grew up living in flats—mostly rented—and, in the style of the times, with small rooms running off a long, dark corridor,” he said. “I did not feel deprived of anything—apart, perhaps, from a dog. I was rarely inside. The best things in Wentworth—the waves at Bondi, the ducks at Centennial Park or even the brisk nor'easter whipping down the harbour on a summer's day—take no account of your bank balance.”

But others were taking account of his bank balance. While the HIH royal commission had no adverse finding against Turnbull, allegations persist he played a role in Australia’s biggest corporate collapse. The HIH liquidator is now suing Turnbull and Goldman Sachs Australia (GSA) for part of $529m lost in HIH collapse. The case against him rests on whether he knew FAI was worth less than the books showed and whether he endorsed his friend Rodney Adler’s takeover of the company. Adler had hired Turnbull and GSA on the proposed takeover of FAI for a $1.5m success fee. The liquidators now argue in the NSW Supreme Court that the parties knew the company was overvalued. Turnbull says the claim is defective and has no basis in fact. But if there is no settlement, it is possible he could appear as a defendant in court in the run-up to the next major election.

What position Turnbull will be in that next election is likely to be decided in the next month. Nelson’s bad hair days will end soon. But who will succeed him? As the ABC says, Turnbull is currently crisscrossing the country in a virtual campaign while Costello continues spruiking his book in his Hamlet “to be or not to be” moment. The born-to-rule Fortinbras of Wentworth is waiting in the wings for the nor'easter whipping down the harbour in the next act.

Wentworth A-Go-Go: The Overington Affair

The intriguing battle for Australia’s smallest and wealthiest seat has rarely left the news since the election was declared. The inner eastern Sydney suburb seat of Wentworth contains the wealth and razzle of Darling Point, Double Bay, Rose Bay, Vaucluse, Bondi Junction and Kings Cross. Its sitting Liberal MP and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull is a serious contender for the next Liberal leadership contest. But he is in great danger of losing his seat if the likely Labor landslide materialises. He is defending new boundaries on a slender margin of 2.5 per cent and his campaign has been bedevilled by the Tasmanian Pulp Mill decision. Labor candidate George Newhouse is a good chance to win aided by his former girlfriend Danielle Ecuyer. She is standing as an independent anti-mill candidate and is likely to direct her preference flow to her estranged boyfriend.

The complexity of this seat was turned up a another couple of notches this week. One issue was the legality of Newhouse’s candidacy which was challenged on a technicality. Under electoral law, a candidate must not be receiving payment from any government office for at least 24 hours before the formal declaration of a nomination. This morning the ABC reported NSW Fair Trading Minister Linda Burney saying she did not receive Newhouse's resignation until 2 November, the day of the nomination. The Liberals wanted this investigated. Later today Burney offered a correction saying she had accepted his nomination on 22 October though the letter was stamped 2 November. Allegations of 'smear tactics' have begun.

However for farce this could not compare with the story which was partially revealed by ABC’s Media Watch on Monday. It reported the extraordinary intervention of The Australian’s journalist Caroline Overington into Wentworth’s campaign. Overington had written several articles about the campaign commenting on the Ecuyer-Newhouse relationship as “the crashing of their feelings on the rocks of a federal election campaign” which “has become the talk of the white-hot electorate of Wentworth”. Overington also suggested the reason for the pair’s break-up may have been differences over the pulp mill decision. Overington had an ongoing email correspondence with Ecuyer throughout the campaign. In late October she emailed Ecuyer asking her who she was going to preference in the election. Ecuyer responded saying it was too early to tell.

Then Overington replied again to Ecuyer reminding her she had only four weeks to decide. Overington then asked her to redirect her preferences away from Newhouse and towards Turnbull. According to the email, Overington said “he’d [Turnbull] be a loss to the parliament and George – forgive me – no gain” signing off with a smiley emoticon. Ecuyer was not happy about the email and wrote to ABC's Media Watch saying she was “disgusted to have been lobbied by a journalist from The Australian for my preferences”. Ecuyer also said Overington offered her front page coverage if she gave her preferences to the Liberals.

Overington strongly denied she was trying to influence preferences and said the email was a running joke between her and Ecuyer. Ecuyer has failed to see the funny side and said yesterday she may make a complaint to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) According to yesterday’s rival Fairfax publication the Melbourne Age, Overington also said it was part of The Australian's "king-maker campaign" to play a role in the election of both Coalition and ALP candidates.

Today the Fairfax newspapers released more of Overington’s emails including ones to the Labor candidate George Newhouse. These emails showed Overington flirting with the Labor man saying “now you are single, I might even make a pass at you.” Newhouse cautiously responded that she had previously criticised him as "short, dark and Jewish" and besides, she was married. Overington upped the ante by replying “Not married, me. Separated five months ago. I might like short, dark and Jewish, you never know”. Later the exchange turns a bit more aggressive as Overington desperately sought an interview ending with “We're out the front of your house, and your office, just so you know”.

Overington's home newspaper, The Australian, quoted Malcolm Turnbull saying Overington was entitled to her opinion. "She's not part of my campaign team obviously," he said. Meanwhile writing in today’s Crikey, media commentator Margaret Simons found the whole affair “icky”. In Crikey Simons said there was “no excuse for her behaviour” and it was “out of line, and unethical”. When contacted by Woolly Days, Simons expanded on what she meant. “Although the correspondence with Ecuyer was the most legally significant,” she said, “I find the Newhouse e-mails more disturbing because of the use of sexual come-ons in the context of a relationship of power”.

Nevertheless Simons is a fan of Overington’s work. In Simons’ influential new book about the Australia media, “The Content Makers”, she wrote a substantial piece entitled "speaking truth to power", which praised Overington’s penetrative series of articles to expose the AWB Iraqi kickbacks scandal. “In 2005,” Simons wrote, “Caroline Overington held the government to account”. Overington went on to win an investigative journalism Walkley award in 2006 for her AWB stories. Now it is Overington’s turn to be held to account. Simons told Woolly Days “it gives me absolutely no pleasure to criticise her”. Despite the criticism, The Australian said it has no plans to stop Overington from writing articles about Wentworth. A News Ltd newspaper knows a good thing when it sees it: the seat of Wentworth is likely to remain a perpetual story-machine until election day.