The extinction of Pityus Mancityus

Manchester City’s stunning Premier League triumph was achieved in typically Madchester style. As someone wrote in the aftermath, the second half of their final game at home against Queens Park Rangers was a microcosm of their season. Comfortably winning the league, then almost throwing it away before finally snatching it back at the end.  It was an astonishing climax to a wild ride and probably just as well they won as the alternative would have been one calamity too far for a side renowned for its ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

It was an expensive triumph. Abi Dhabi's Sheik Mansour has poured almost a billion pounds into his expensive toy but he has achieved his first target of winning the Premier League within four seasons. As well as their expensive assemblage of players, Mansour also recruited a hardnosed winning manager in Roberto Mancini who took Inter to three Italian titles before adding the English crown to his collection. The talk now is of moving forward to collect European silverware, a task that fellow billionaire Roman Abramovich has found beyond him in his reign as Chelsea moneybags – though he has one more chance in Munich this weekend.

As a Liverpool fan, I remain a fully paid up member of ABU (Anyone But United) for at least one season.  I have to say I enjoyed the way the title was snatched from Manchester United’s grasp on Sunday. I thought they were a poor team but I thought the same in 2003 and 2011 when they also managed to win the league. Sir Alex Ferguson has long ago proved himself the best manager ever to grace the British game and time after time he has come up with the goods to coach United sides in the fine art of grinding out victories.

I might be persuaded to leave ABU if City put together a run of title successes but I’m not convinced that will happen. I certainly wouldn’t bet against United coming back next season, having just lost out on goal difference this year. Defensively they are almost impregnable while the ageless pair of Giggs and Scholes will be back for another season, playing as well as ever. Wayne Rooney appears at the peak of his considerable powers well supported by the likes of Hernandez and Valencia though their midfield needs bolstering.  The memory of that 6-1 shellacking at Old Trafford (the size of the victory ultimately decided the title) should be enough motivation to do better next time round.

City meanwhile may struggle to keep up the momentum next season and could be distracted by a longer European campaign.  They will have money to spend in the summer but there will be much to spend it on with bad boys Tevez and Balotelli and relative failure Dzeko all likely to move on.  They also rely too much of Yaya Toure which is great when he is on the park, but a risky policy as shown when he limped off injured against QPR. Like United however, Mancini has drilled them into a formidable defensive unit with Kompany and company backed up by Joe Hart who has the chance to earn back the good name of English goalkeepers that was lost around 20 years ago. 

Chelsea and Arsenal will continue to flip around for third and fourth with Tottenham there or thereabouts. Redknapp has proved a shrewd acquisitor of talent in the transfer market with Van der Vaart and Modric both inspired signings while developing the considerable talents of Bale before the inevitable transfer to Old Trafford (or maybe the City of Manchester stadium). I’m not sure if Newcastle’s season is a one-off or they are back in the mix. Papiss Cisse was a sensation at the end of the season as was Demba Ba at the start and getting them both to click at the same time will be crucial to their chance.

My own team Liverpool look an absolute shambles and it is probably just as well they did not win the cup final as a second trophy would have disguised the fact it was their worst season in living memory. The fact is if they keep their 2012 form into next season, they would have to be among the relegation candidates. Their new stadium plans are in disarray, King Kenny’s crown is in tatters and they are a long way from getting back into the Top Four let alone making a title challenge. Gerrard is looking past it, Suarez and Carroll is not working, and none of Downing, Adams or Henderson have risen to the challenge. It’s difficult to see anything but hard times for the Reds in 2012-2013.

Rafa Benitez and Liverpool about to part company

The final chapter of one of Liverpool FC’s worst seasons in recent memory is about to written as manager Rafael Benitez accepts a payoff of to leave the club by “mutual consent”. The terminology masks an unusual sacking. In the end it came down to a lack of money for players. New chairman Martin Broughton told Benitez this week there was no money to sign new players during the summer break. In truth, Benitez deserves to go but the terms of his contract made getting rid of him a difficult and expensive challenge. For a club with Liverpool’s current financial difficulties (a debt of £351m) it had to be handled with care.

Not that care is a word often associated with Liverpool’s owners Thomas Ollis Hicks and George N Gillett Jr. Both are billionaires with extensive interests in US sporting franchises. The pair came together to buy Liverpool for £218.9m in 2007. The pair claimed that silverware and a new stadium were their highest priorities but they failed with both of these objectives instead saddling the club with increased debt. Fans that initially supported their bid ahead of a Dubai alternative quickly lost faith in them sparking protests against their continued ownership. Hicks and Gillett have finally agreed to sell up but Hicks did little to endear himself when he said he expects to make four times the money he paid for the club when it is sold.

The convenience of having “the yanks” as the bad guys took the heat off Benitez despite the club not winning any silverware during the last three years of his regime. Brought in from Valencia with great fanfare, Benitez quickly gained hero status after the 2005 Champions League win followed by success in the 2006 FA Cup. But man management issues and Benitez’s notorious aloofness forced several key players out of the club. The low point came this season with the club finishing seventh and exiting the Champions League at the group stage. The 50-year-old manager signed a renewed five-year contract in March 2009 which entitles him to a £16m severance fee (likely to be bargained down to £3m in the current negotiations).

Benitez’s contract is one of the club’s many major financial failures of recent years. The club’s recently published 2008-2009 annual financial report shows the extent to which the club has fallen on hard times during the GFC. The report shows the club posted a before tax loss of £52.8m despite finishing second in the league last season and reaching the Champions League quarter-final stage. The club paid £40m on interest payments alone with creditors owed £472.5m. The club is no nearer to building its badly needed 60,000 seater replacement for Anfield despite spending £45.5m on the project in the last two years.

The accounts also showed the club paid £4m in severance fees to former chief executive Rick Parry when he left at the end of the 2008-2009 season – easily the largest such fee in British football history. The sum was negotiated with previous chairman David Moores around the time Hicks and Gillett entered the bidding to buy Liverpool in 2007. Parry and Benitez never got on and the pair argued over responsibility for the club’s transfer budget.

If Liverpool’s finances look bad in the annual report, matters are only likely to get worse once this season’s efforts are taken into account. The lack of Champions League football will be a massive blow both in TV rights and the hook to attract top players. It is likely that Benitez’s departure will be followed by the club’s major on field stars. Fellow Spaniard 26-year-old Fernando Torres is easily the juiciest attraction. Benitez bought him from Atletico Madrid in the summer of 2007 for £25 million but his performances for Liverpool and Spain in the 2008 Euros have sent his value soaring to £60-70 million. A good world cup could add another ten million to his asking price. Given his injury record (he has missed half of the last two seasons), Liverpool may feel it is good value to cash in, though the club supporters who idolise “Nando” would not be impressed.

Club captain Steven Gerrard could also be on his way out. Gerrard has never made any secret of his desire to achieve high honours in the game and given the significance of his recent birthday (he turned 30 on Sunday), he may have come to the conclusion he is never going to win a championship medal with Liverpool. A big money move to Chelsea or Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid may also be looked on favourably by Liverpool’s management given Gerrard’s age and waning influence last season. Spanish goalkeeper Pepe Reina may also see his future lying elsewhere once his mentor moves on.

While selling such high profile players will bring big money into the club, most of it would be spent servicing debt rather than buying replacement players. Attracting new talent, both on and off the field will be difficult as the club’s cachet starts to wane. It is likely that like neighbours Everton, Liverpool are heading towards a period of steep decline as the game’s wealth becomes entrenched in London and Manchester.

Do or Dubai for Liverpool

Rick Parry, the chief executive of Liverpool FC, has revealed that his club are on the verge of completing a takeover deal by Dubai investors. Parry told the BBC Sunday morning radio program Sportsweek, “A huge amount of work has been going on from both parts. I imagine we'll have something concrete to say relatively soon on that.” The Liverpool board has accepted a $450 million bid and the process is now going through due financial diligence. The new owners of England’s most successful football club will be Dubai International Capital (DIC), owned by the Government of Dubai.

DIC was established in 2004 as the international investment arm of Dubai Holding. Dubai Holding belongs to Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and is an umbrella company created to consolidate Dubai’s large scale infrastructure and investment projects. DIC owns several international brands including the former British budget chain Travelodge, the Tussauds Group and the London Eye. It is also the third largest shareholder in Daimler Chrysler with 2% of the company.

These investments fit in with Al-Maktoum’s plans to turn Dubai into one of the world’s great financial centres. In just 30 years, Dubai has morphed from a sleepy port with a population of a few thousand people into a thriving business hub, with a population of three million and a diversified economy that is the envy of the Gulf states. Dubai is obsessed with its status. It has two towers under construction which will vie for the largest building in the world when complete. One of these is the Burj Tower scheduled for completion in 2008 with an estimated height of 800m (almost 300m taller than the current tallest Taipei 101). The city is also home to the three largest man-made islands in the world, visible from outer space. With its oil reserves dwindling, Dubai is basing its future economy on real estate, aerospace, technology and tourism.

Tourism will be the key. Dubai attracted 30 million travellers in 2006, up from 13.5 million five years ago. It is building new airport facilities capable of handling more than 200 million passengers by 2015. Dubai is spending $30 billion on planes capable of flying halfway around the world which will make the city no more than 15 hours from key cities globally. Though only founded in 1986, Emirates Airlines low-cost model, widebody fleet, and central location has seen it emerge as a major threat to the established European carriers.

The country's leader Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is not listed in the Forbes rich list because it is impossible to work what belongs to him and what belongs to the Government of Dubai. He has a fortune estimated to be worth $14 billion of “family money” and another $13 billion of personal wealth. A combined value of almost $28 billion would put him in the top five richest people in the world.

Al Maktoum is 57 years old. He is the Vice-President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates as well as being ruler of Dubai. His elder brother Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum ruled the emirate until January 2006. He died of a heart attack when on holiday in Queensland’s Gold Coast. Brisbane airport was put on alert so his entourage of 33 family members and 300 bags could rush back to Dubai so the Sheikh's body could be buried at home within 24 hours.

Sheik Mohammed was immediately promoted to prime minister after his brother’s death. The sheik was educated in Britain at the Sandhurst Military Academy and retains a love for British traditions. Liverpool is not his first sporting investment. He is most renowned for his love of horse racing and his family own 3,000 horses worldwide mostly in Britain at the Godolphin stable. The family also owned the horse Jeune which won the Melbourne cup in 1994.

Liverpool is another thoroughbred and a blue chip football brand. They have won more leagues, European Cups, UEFA Cups and League Cups than any other English team. The enduring bond between the club and its supporters were forged on the field but also in the moral ambiguities of the Heysel and Hillsborough disasters. The Sun's treatment of Hillsborough gave Liverpool fans a finely tuned sense of victimhood based on their own guilt about Heysel. And that is matched by lack of ultimate success on the field. Despite their shock Champions League triumph in 2005, they have not won the English league since 1990. Liverpool's resources are dwarfed by Manchester United’s massive fan base and the wealth available to Chelsea through its Russian benefactor Roman Abramovich. Al-Maktoum will change all that. He will provide the finance for a new 60,000 seater stadium near Anfield and provide the funds for a squad capable of challenging United and Chelsea. The fans will overcome the feeling that an asset has been sold overseas. And Al-Maktoum will find Liverpool are a perfect fit for DIC’s expanding Best of British portfolio.