Noynoy phenomenon takes another Aquino to Philippines presidential victory

Britain wasn’t the only country to get a change of leadership this week. In the Philippines Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III was headed for a landslide victory in the presidential election. His opponent former President Joseph Estrada has not yet conceded defeat but with 88 percent of the vote counted Aquino is five million votes clear with over 40 percent of the vote. Aquino has chosen not to claim victory until Congress proclaims him the winner of Monday’s election but he did say he was preparing to take over from sitting President Gloria Arroya who was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

If the name of 50-year-old Aquino is familiar then so it should be. The family has been involved in Filipino politics for several generations. His father Benigno Aquino was an opposition senator in the Marcos era who was assassinated in 1983 as he stepped off a plane in Manila after returning from exile. Aquino senior’s death pushed his wife Corazon Aquino into the spotlight and she subsequently ascended to the presidency after Marcos’s 20 year regime was ended three years later. Their son Benigno known as “Noynoy” was wounded during a failed coup attempt in 1987 but otherwise steered clear of politics during his mother’s six year presidency.

But by 1998 the lure of getting involved in the family business proved too strong and Noynoy won a seat in the House of Representatives, Philippines’ lower house. He worked his way up serving in various parliamentary committees and was elected the maximum three terms. In 2007 he moved to the Senate endorsed in TV ads by his mother. While his profile was increasing, no-one spoke of him as presidential material until Corazon Aquino died on 1 August 2009 after a year long battle with cancer. The so-called “Noynoy Phenomenon” took off as the country mourned his mother. He secured his presidential nomination against party chief Senator Mar Roxas and his presidential campaign was propelled by support from the Noynoy Aquino for President Movement a rainbow group of lawyers and activists.

The Huffington Post’s Virginia Moncrieff said Aquino appears the most unlikely person to win an election by a landslide given his “penchant for badly fitting shirts, dorky hair style, and complete lack of personal charisma.” Moncrieff called Aquino the “comfort candidate” who campaigned heavily on a message of anti-corruption. “In a country where crooks, charlatans, film stars, sportsmen and nut jobs routinely stand for, and get voted into office, Mr. Aquino represented a steady and secure vote,” Moncrieff said.

Aquino’s victory was declared in remarkably short order. In a country with 7000 islands, it used to take weeks to tally all the votes, but a new electronic voting system made his win apparent barely 16 hours after the polls closed. Aquino campaigned on pledges to investigate allegations of electoral fraud, corruption and rights abuses by the outgoing administration. He now says he will investigate his predecessor Arroyo for corruption. "We need to have closure on all items like the fertiliser scam. Who is responsible for this? Let's also look at the ZTE." In both cases, Arroyo has been associated with allegations of overpaying for deals and diversion of funds.

News of Aquino’s victory has buoyed international markets with Moody’s saying it sets a favourable tone for the country's credit fundamentals. Christian de Guzman, a Singapore-based Moody's assistant vice president and analyst, said Aquino’s comfortable win removed the undercurrents of political illegitimacy that had hampered Arroyo’s policy agenda. “The success of the first fully automated polls in Asia on Monday is at this time of greater relevance than the result itself, implying a strong mandate to govern for the victor," de Guzman said. Last year Moody’s upgraded the Philippines sovereign rating prompted by the country's strong external payments position and stability in the banking sector. They say these conditions will continue to provide support to the Philippines' rating over the next two years.

Philippines massacre leads to emergency rule

Philippines President Gloria Arroya has placed three southern provinces under emergency rule after the death toll rose to 46 in a high-profile massacre on the island of Mindanao yesterday. A presidential palace directive stated that the provinces Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat and the city of Cotabato were placed under a state of emergency “for the purpose of preventing and suppressing lawless violence in the area”. The death toll almost doubled overnight after police and soldiers found 22 bodies in a hillside mass grave to add to the 24 dead they found at the scene a day earlier. The massacre of journalists, supporters and relatives of a candidate for local governor has shocked a region used to turmoil and bloodshed. The wife and sister of local gubernatorial candidate, Esmael Mangudadatu, were among the dead and Mangudadatu has accused a political opponent from a rival Amputuan clan of being behind the slayings. (photo credit: Agence France Press)

About 100 armed men intercepted the convoy yesterday as they drove to the Commission on Elections provincial office in Shariff Aguak town, Maguindanao. The convoy was led by Ebrahim Mangudadatu, who was about to file the candidacy for governor of Maguindanao in the provincial capital Shariff Aguak on behalf of his brother of Ishmael. Mangudadatu’s wife rang her husband to say that she and 50 others had been kidnapped by “Ampatuan’s men”. It was the last time the couple spoke. Mrs Mangudadatu and the other victims were brought to a nearby hinterland where they were executed one after another. Many were beheaded.

According to Philstar.com the massacre was the result of a long-running feud between two influential families. The Mangudadatus and Ampatuans were former allies but had a falling out when Esmael declared his intention to run for Maguindanao governor against the governor’s son. They say the attack was led by Datu Unsay Mayor Datu Andal Ampatuan Jr., also known as “Datu Unsay”. His father Data Unsay snr has been the political powerhouse in Maguindanao for many years and Data Unsay jr now has designs on the governorship with the aid of powerful friends. Mindanao rebels say that the local police boss was also implicated in the shooting.

About 34 journalists were in the convoy to cover the candidacy. Paris-based Reporters Sans Frontieres are waiting for confirmation that at least 20 of them were killed in the attack which would make it the largest single massacre of journalists ever. At the time of writing, RSF said at least 12 journalists had died in the attack. “Never in the history of journalism have the news media suffered such a heavy loss of life in one day,” they said in statement. “We convey our condolences and sympathy to all journalists in the Philippines, who are in state of shock after this appalling massacre.”

Television station UNTV confirmed that four of their employees were among those killed. The National Union of Journalists of the Philippines has urged the government to move to "ensure swift justice on the perpetrators, no matter who they are". Today 100 journalists wearing black shirts and black arm bands with the words, "Stop Killing Journalists," staged a protest against the killings in Manila. Another 200 denounced the massacre in southern Davao city.

Many are also blaming President Arroya for the lawlessness of Philippines southernmost provinces in the run-up to the 2010 election. Maguindanao is part of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao which is the only part of the country to have its own government. The ARMM is also the poorest of Philippines’ 17 regions by some considerable margin (the next poorest has twice the per capita income of the ARMM). 120,000 people have died in the Muslim insurgency that has lasted over 30 years. Many politicians and elected officials in the region maintain well-equipped private armies tolerated well beyond the reach of Manila. According to Al Jazeera, Governor Ampatuan delivered crucial votes to swing 2004 elections in her favour, so people in the province fear he may not be punished even if he is found to be behind the killing.

Philippines: Estrada to ride into the sunset one more time

Convicted former Philippine president Joseph Estrada is planning a comeback, but he claims it is only as a movie star. He is planning a starring role in a film opposite one of the Philippines' leading comedy actresses saying he needs the money. Though still the defacto opposition leader, he has brushed off speculation he plans to return to politics. Estrada was released after six years in prison when granted a presidential pardon two months ago.

Estrada made his name in over a 100 movies before switching to politics, becoming vice-president to Fidel Ramos. Estrada won the 1998 presidential election in a landslide which was the biggest margin in Philippines history. Estrada lasted just 30 months in the top job, before he was accused of allegations of corruption and incompetence. He was impeached after a People Power protest. He was imprisoned for life in September 2007 after a six year trial only to be pardoned two months later by his successor Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Now his supporters are creating speculation Estrada will run again in the 2010 election. The current administration has warned him against it, saying the pardon specifically bans him from running again for the presidency.

Estrada’s overthrow in 2001 was the second people power revolution in the last 20 years and symptomatic of the Philippines torrid political history. The country was ruled for three hundred years by the Spanish in the wake of Ferdinand Magellan’s landing on the island of Cebu. Magellan himself was killed by local chieftain Lapu Lapu on the island on Mactan but the Spanish were undeterred and launched another assault from Mexico to claim the islands. They named Cebu the "Islas Filipinos" in honour of King Philip II.

The Spanish had two hopes, economic and religious, for their new south east Asian colony. Firstly, they hope to emulate the Portuguese who had turned the nearby Spice Islands (Moluccas) into a lucrative source of exotic spices. In this, they were to be disappointed. But they had better results with their second ambition. Spain hoped to convert the natives to Catholicism. They sent in a group of Augustinian, Dominican, and Franciscan missionaries collectively known as the Friars who carved out great secular power for themselves over the coming centuries. Their rule became known as the Friarocracy.

While the Philippines proved to be relatively spiceless, they discovered in the large northern island of Luzon an excellent deepwater port which could serve as a trade link between Asia and the Americas. Known as Manila, it quickly became the capital of the new colony. Galleons plied the route from Mexico and China exchanging gold and silver for silk. The Spanish fought off the Chinese, the British and the Dutch for control of Manila and ensured a compliant local population as Catholic priests established towns around churches and gave religious instruction.

By the early 19th century the galleon trade was in decline and Manila’s wealthier mestizos (descendents of the Spanish intermarried with locals and Chinese) began to turn their attention to the fertile lands of the highly volcanic islands. They grew sugar and hemp and as they grew rich, wanted a slice of the political power held firmly by Spanish officials and friars. Fillipinos educated in Europe came home resenting the power of the elite as well as noting Spain’s own backwardness compared to its European neighbours. Physician and writer Jose Rizal came home from Spain in 1892 and founded La Liga Filipina, intent on enacting political reform.

While Rizal wanted a peaceful transfer of power, others founded revolutionary societies dedicated to the violent overthrow of the Spanish. The Katipunan launched a bloody armed revolt in 1896 but was defeated by the stronger Spanish forces. Although Rizal was not involved, he was arrested and accused of insurgency before being executed by firing squad. His martyrdom inflamed Filipino passions and a stronger revolt launched in his name. Just when it seemed independence was on the cards, the Americans became involved, bringing their own brand of colonial rule.

In 1898 the US went to war with Spain over rights to Cuba. The war spread to the Pacific and US forces destroyed the Spanish fleet in Manila Bay. The Filipino rebels supported the Americans and took control of the country. In order to save face, the Spanish signed a secret deal with the US ceding rights to the Philippines for $20 million. The islanders had no say in the treaty and found themselves betrayed by their “allies”. The rebels continued to fight a war against their new rulers until they were defeated in 1902.

Nevertheless the Americans proved more benign rulers than the Spanish and encouraged Filipinos to become involved in their own political affairs. They wanted the Philippines to follow the US model of democracy. Under the Tydings-McDuffie Act, a commonwealth government was established in 1935 under the presidency of Manuel Quezon. Full independence was promised for 1946. But war intervened and the Japanese invaded Luzon just ten hours after attacking Pearl Harbor. They declared a puppet republic in 1943 under Jose Laurel. But General Douglas MacArthur made good on a promise to return a year later overturning the Japanese administration at a horrendous cost in Filipino lives.

In accordance with the previous agreement, Manuel Roxas was appointed first president of an independent Philippines in 1946. Landowners retained feudal control of the war-ravaged country and agrarian grievances triggered the Huk Rebellion which dragged on for almost two decades. Its end coincided with the rise to power of Ferdinand Marcos. Initially he was treated as a hero as he increased food production, financed public works and secured aid from the US. But as the tide turned against him in 1972, he declared martial law against what he saw as a Communist threat and a growing Muslim separatist movement in the south.

The Philippines settled into a pattern of corrupt and oppressive dictatorship, worsened by the assassination of popular opposition leader Benigno Aquino at Manila airport in 1983. Aquino’s funeral became the largest gathering in the nation’s history and ushered in a two year protest campaign that grew in intensity. Under pressure, Marcos declared a snap election in 1986. Aquino’s widow Corazon was put forward as opposition leader. Marcos’s handpicked scrutineers declared him the winner of a clearly fraudulent election. The announcement sparked four days of civilian unrest which became known as the EDSA Revolution (for the street Epifanio de los Santos Avenue which was the focal point of the demonstrations). Finally abandoned by his military, Marcos fled the country allowing Aquino to take power.

The 1990s began a new era of optimism which didn’t last long. Aquino’s regime was plagued by Marcos-supported coup attempts, leftist insurrections and constant electricity shortages. The massive volcanic eruption (the second largest on Earth in the 20th century) of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was followed by the closure of the nearby American Clark Air Base which caused major economic hardship. Aquino was replaced by her military strongman Fidel Ramos who was elected president in 1992. Ramos surfed a wave of growth in the Asian economy until it collapsed in 1997. That market meltdown brought Estrada centre stage for the 1998 election.

Much of Estrada’s support came from the country’s poor who voted for him in record numbers. They remembered him from his movies as a defender of the downtrodden. But Estrada was unlike his screen persona. He did little to alleviate poverty and the economy stuttered. The negotiations that Ramos has instigated with Communist and Muslim rebels fell through. Then the corruption allegations began coming in 2000. An attempt to impeach him was squashed by his supporters. It was time for more people power. ESDA Mark II was launched as hundreds of thousands took to the streets. Once again, a president was deserted by his army and forced to stand down.

His vice-president and former opposition leader Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was sworn in as president. Macapagal-Arroyo was born to rule. Her father Diosdado Macapagal was a one-term president who served from 1961 to 1965. His daughter gained a Ph D in economics at Georgetown University in Washington where she was a classmate of Bill Clinton. She served in Aquino’s government before running for senator in 1992 and rose to the vice presidency in Estrada’s election landslide. Macapagal-Arroyo cemented her presidency with a solid win in the 2004 election but under the Philippine constitution cannot run again in 2010.

Like Aquino before her, Macapagal-Arroyo has survived coup attempts, rebel activity and allegations of corruption. She is proving a solid financial manager. Economic growth has averaged 4.6 percent under her rule and inflation has been kept to under 3 percent. The Filipino peso was Asia's best performing currency in 2007 strengthening by almost 20 percent for the year. Analysts are now beginning to look at the 2010 campaign to replace her. Defence Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, Quezon City Mayor Feliciano "Sonny" Belmonte and Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Bayani Fernando are all early contenders. But Estrada can not be ruled out despite the official ban. His supporters are playing up his chances in the absence of a unifying figure among opposition candidates. Asked to confirm the report on Thursday, Estrada coyly replied: "That is just speculation right now, but who knows?"