The Horn of scarcity: Anatomy of an official famine

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has a very dry definition of a famine. More than a third of children must be suffering from acute malnutrition. Two adults or four children must be dying of hunger each day for every group of 10,000 people and the population must have access to well below 2,100 kilocalories of food per day. On 20 July, the UN decided two regions of southern Somalia met those criteria, the lower Shabelle and Bakool regions. A prolonged La Nina has led to one of the driest October-December rainy seasons ever, the second consecutive such poor season and very poor livestock production has also contributed to the crop failure which led to the drought which has led to the famine.

A new UN regional overview said the famine is likely to spread to the rest of the region. The region is suffering severe food insecurity due to drought and high food prices and there are significant refugees on the move from Somalia. The trigger for the move of tens of thousands is directly attributable to the drought but also the 20 year conflict in southern Somalia which has hindered access for humanitarian agencies.

Now those agencies are struggling to cope with the influx of Somali refugees in Ethiopia and Kenya. Malnutrition and mortality rates are alarmingly high in many parts of the region. The OCHA estimates 12.4 million people are in need of help in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. One quarter of Somalia’s 7.5 million are displaced with 3.7 million needing assistance. A further 4.8 million in Ethiopia and 3.7 million in Kenya also need help.

Feeding over 12 million people is not easy in war torn Horn of Africa but that is the task UN food agency WFP has set itself. Large parts of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are suffering in a drought that is likely to continue to next year and with several conflicts in the region, the WFP they barely reached 40 per cent, leaving six million malnourished people who are slowly starving to death. Airlifts have started to Mogadishu and the south at the heart of the famine, with support also arriving in the camps in the border towns of Kenya and Ethiopia.

Dadaab in Kenya is getting 1,300 new arrivals every day while Dollo Ado in Ethiopia has taken in 54,000 this year with half the children malnourished. CARE operates three refugee camps in Dadaab which are home to almost 400,000 refugees, mostly from Somalia. Thos arriving suffering from malnutrition and medical problems are referred to supplementary and therapeutic feeding programs and stabilisation units in camp hospitals. Families are provided with two weeks' worth of food rations and other essentials including tents, kitchen sets, firewood and fuel-efficient stoves while awaiting registration and access to general food distributions.

The situation will worse before it gets better. The current food security emergency across the region is expected to persist at least for the coming three to four months with the number of people in need of urgent aid increasing by as much as a quarter. The crisis in southern Somalia is expected to continue to worsen through 2011, with the entire south slipping into famine. This deterioration is likely given the very high levels of both severe acute malnutrition and under-five mortality in combination with expected worsening pastoral conditions, a continued increase in local cereal prices, and a below-average crop harvest.

Australian foreign minister Kevin Rudd has just returned from the region and he said the international community has a double challenge. Firstly to ensure UN agencies have enough funding to deal with the crisis before it becomes a catastrophe; and secondly to give UN humanitarian agencies enough flexibility to make sure people get to the aid despite the war zone.

In the medium term, OCHA says interventions to rebuild and support livelihoods will be critical. “Securing long-term food and nutrition security in the Horn of Africa requires focussing on a range of issues affecting the region, including conflict, preservation of humanitarian space, nutrition, disaster risk reduction, health and education services, and climate change adaptation,” the OCHA said. “Building resilience in the agricultural sector will be essential to avoid recurrent food security crises in this region.”

Robert Peel and the Irish Famine

In 1845 a devastating blight hit the Irish potato crop which was the sole diet of millions of Irish people. The blight wasn’t the first of its kind, but it was the worst. That is until the following year which was worse again. The effects of a third blight in four years in 1848 left Ireland reeling in a way it has never fully recovered from. Millions died, and millions more fled to Britain and North America. To this day, the island of Ireland’s population remains two million less than it was in 1845. There was well meaning sympathy next door in the then-wealthiest country on earth, but the problem got ignored whenever a solution inconveniently threatened to interfere with British financial interests.

The problem itself was slow to manifest itself at first. As digging of the potato crop progressed in the autumn of 1845, the news from Ireland grew steadily worse. By mid October, reports from the local constabulary were growing that showed crop failure all parts of the country. In Monaghan and elsewhere it was remarked “potatoes brought a few days ago, seemingly remarkably good, have rotted.”

It was this initial soundness that left everyone bewildered and then thrown into despair. What looked like a splendid crop rotted in front of farmers’ eyes. Wild theories were put forward as it why it was happening. Some blamed static electricity in the atmosphere generated by smoke from locomotives that had just come into use. Others pinned the culprit as 'mortiferous vapours' from ‘blind volcanos’ deep in the earth. One school of thought blamed another recent fashion: the collection of guano manure.

The esteemed British Prime Minister Robert Peel was being kept abreast of developments and asked his good friend and scientist Dr Lyon Playfair to investigate. Peel appointed Playfair head of a Scientific Commission to see what could be done to save the Irish potato. Playfair had studied under Justus von Liebig but was a better courtier than chemist. He asked the editor of the leading horticultural paper in Britain, Dr John Lindley to join him on his expedition.

In Ireland they were met by the eminent Irish Catholic scientist (a rarity for the time) Professor Robert Kane. Peel asked Kane to work with his Commission because he knew Kane was already investigating the problem and had written an important book about The Industrial Resources of Ireland. He would also provide the men with local knowledge and between them, Peel hoped, they would come up with a “dispassionate judgement” on the problem.

The Commission needed little deliberation. Members found evidence all too easily the problem was even worse than reported. They estimated half the crop was destroyed or about to be. Their mission became finding a method of preventing sound potatoes from rotting. But despite the involvement of Kane, fatal ignorance of Irish conditions proved the Commission’s undoing.

The traditional Irish method of storing potatoes was to keep them in a simple pit where the tubers could be partially protected from frost and rain. The Commissioners advised farmers to dry the potatoes in the sun and then put them in a trench covered in turf. There followed complicated instructions on sifting packing stuff using unslacked lime, burnt turf and dry sawdust. There was a laundry list of unobtainable tools required and opaque hints on how to make bread from the starchy material. 70,000 copies were printed of the instructions which suggested if the farmer did not understand them they should ask their landlord or clergyman to explain its meaning.

The Commission produced “four monster reports” to the Peel Government in three weeks. Hopes that the starchy material would provide sustenance were dashed as was the possibility of separating the good and bad bits of slightly blighted spuds. It didn’t matter what people did with them, the potatoes melted into a slimy decaying mess.

Senior landowners started warning Dublin Castle that the problem was getting out of hand. Lord Clare told the Irish Under-Secretary at the Castle he “would not answer for the consequences” if a famine occurred. With the year’s crop destroyed “how were they to survive to August 1846?” Clare asked. One person suggested the 12,000 police and army horse supply of corn be cut while the Duke of Norfolk said the Irish “should learn to consume curry powder” which he said had nourished India.

On 28 October 1845, the Dublin Corporation called for a committee to be set up to advise the Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland Lord Heytesbury to adopt measures “to avoid calamity”. The committee led by Daniel O’Connell proposed corn exports be stopped and the ports thrown open for free import of food, rice and Indian corn. They also suggested food stores and public works for country areas. O’Connell suggested a tax on landlords to pay for all this.

Heytesbury was unimpressed by the proposal. He used the time-immemorial excuse of stonewalling politicians saying all the evidence was not yet in. “It was impossible to form an accurate opinion...until digging was complete,” he said. The plans needed to be “maturely weighed”. The Freeman’s Journal led with the condemnation of Heytesbury’s weasel words. They summarised his message as “let them starve”.

If Heytesbury was an archetypal colonial fool, Peel was not. He knew that the crop failure meant the Irish must be fed on grain, so his answer was to repeal the Corn Laws. He also knew this was political suicide. A previous supporter, the Duke of Buckingham had resigned from cabinet three years earlier rather than tolerate a slight modification to the laws. Now Peel was staring down a remedy that involved the abolition of duties on all “articles of subsistence.”

This was bad for Peel, but it would prove even worse for Ireland. In England, the vital oxygen of publicity for the fate of the Irish was deprived by the burning domestic issue of the laws. English farmers in particular stood to lose out if duties on imported grain were lifted. Worse still, opponents of abolition repeatedly denied there was any problem in Ireland at all and that change was unnecessary. The Tory Mayor of Liverpool refused to call a meeting for the relief of Irish distress while the blight was seen as “the invention of agitators”. To even express the opinion the blight existed, had the danger of setting the speaker out as a dangerous radical.

The abolition question produced a huge split in Peel’s own protectionist Conservative Party. There was an overwhelming majority in Cabinet against him. Despite being rolled on the issue, Peel refused to resign. Playfair produced his final report on 15 November. He said late rainy weather had made the problem even worse than before. But the Cabinet was unmoved. On 5 December Peel tendered his resignation to Queen Victoria. After “ten famous days” of feverish negotiations, opposition leader Lord John Russell told Victoria he too found it impossible to form a government.

The poisoned chalice was handed back to Peel who had to carry out Corn Law reform against his own party’s wishes. Ireland’s fate lay in his hands but they were tied behind his back. As 1845 passed into the deep winter of 1846, control of Ireland passed to Peel's increasingly powerful Treasury Assistant Charles Trevelyan. Trevelyan had little sympathy for the Irish whom he felt did not help themselves enough. He worked to undermine Peel’s relief plans of Indian corn. The Irish gave up hope on English assistance and prayed instead for survival to a good harvest in 1846. It was this second failure that did all the damage. The British had charity fatigue second time round and Trevelyan shut down the relief operation.

Peel, meanwhile got his Corn Law repeals through at fatal cost. On 26 June 1846 the Whigs and Protectionist Tories combined to bring him down. He was defeated by 73 votes and resigned three days later. As an observer said at the time, the vote “had as much to do with Ireland as Kamschatka". But with the laissez faire Lord John Russell in power supported by Trevelyan of similar mind, any hope Britain would intervene in the calamity that followed disappeared. Britain practised genocide by omission. In lieu of potatoes, the Russell Government planted the seeds that would lead to Ireland’s 20th century rebellions.

Niger's famine kills celebrations of 50th anniversary of independence

Celebrations in Niger for the 50th anniversary of its independence from France yesterday were muted as it faced up to a massive famine that threatens millions. The UN estimates half of the West African country’s 14 million people are at risk, with the number of severely food-insecure people increasing significantly from 3.3 million people as recently as April. The sombre mood was reflected with few public events marking the independence milestone. Among them was a simple tree-planting ceremony on the outskirts of the capital, Niamey. (picture: Sunday Alamba/AP)

The country’s leader General Salou Djibo dedicated the celebration of independence from France to the "struggle against food insecurity by sustainable land management." Djibo who claimed power in a coup earlier this year, said in a broadcast on Monday he wanted an overhaul of farming to prevent a repeat of the crisis in future harvests. “Our goal should be radically to transform the system of agricultural production to definitively bring Niger out of the disastrous consequences of unreliable climate change and the cycle of famine," he said.

Aid groups have been generally supportive of Djibo even if he hasn’t let the famine get in the way of dealing with his political enemies. Last week Niger police arrested the ex-prime minister and three other former senior officials on charges of embezzling public funds. The arrests were part of a promise Djibo made to investigate corruption during the ten year reign of former president Mamadou Tandja who he toppled in February. Last month his anti-corruption commission published 200 names they accused of embezzlement. Ex-prime minister Oumarou has been called to return $500,000.

Djibo has been less keen to dismantle some of Tandja’s even bigger earners. In 2008 the then president gave his approval for a $5 billion production-sharing agreement for the Agadem oil block with Chinese state-owned CNPC in 2008. Human rights groups complained the agreement lacked transparency and should be investigated. But this week Djibo approved the deal. "The production-sharing agreement with CNPC allows us, if we manage it well, to guarantee better returns for our country," he said. The Agadem oil block has estimated reserves of 325 million barrels and should come online in three years. Niger is also set to become the world’s second largest uranium producer when French company Areva's billion-dollar Imouraren mine starts production.

This abundant mineral wealth means little to the lives of millions destroyed by lack of food. Niger lies at the bottom of the UN Human Development Index so even in a year of good harvests the region is on the edge of a humanitarian crisis. Last year’s harvest was not good. Niger is at the centre of a Sahel famine that has hit Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad and Mali, after insufficient rains left poor crops and a desperate shortage of cattle feed. The fodder shortfalls and lack of water are affecting livestock herds with increasing cases of animal mortality and pastoralists having to sell their cattle at very low prices. The situation is becoming critical in all regions and emergency destocking measures are recommended by humanitarian partners.

Children are worst affected by the crisis. The results of the UN 2010 nutrition survey published on 24 June show the magnitude of the nutritional crisis among children. The Nutrition Survey shows 17 percent of children aged 6 months to 5 years are affected, increasing by 5 percent in a year. The UN’s biggest priorities in Niger are food security (including assistance to pastoralists) and nutrition (including water, sanitation and health activities).

The UN World Food Program is rolling out a large-scale feeding operation to provide foods fortified with vitamins and nutrients for all children under two and their families in the worst-affected parts of the country. They are also providing medical treatment for those who succumb to malnourishment, nursing mothers in particular. Longer term, the communities need build up their livelihoods to become more drought resilient. “Higher agricultural output and lower population growth would make these crises less likely,” the WFP said. “That means improving living conditions in rural areas and providing farmers with access to water, credit, education and healthcare.”

Chad and Niger: Neighbours in crisis

Two UN humanitarian coordinators have said the central African countries of Chad and Niger are on the verge of widescale famine. Michele Flavigna, the UN representative in Chad told a news conference last week almost one in five people are starving in that country. “Two million Chadians, or 18 percent of the population, are in a situation of food insecurity," he said. "A great deal needs to be done to counter this grave problem," he said.

Neighboring Niger is also facing a severe food shortage that could affect 7.8 million people, according to one estimate released in late January. Niger’s situation is worsened by political woes as its government was overthrown last week in a military coup. A junta calling itself the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy stormed the presidential palace and captured president Mamadou Tandja and his ministers in a four-hour gunbattle that left at least three people dead. The junta gave no indication of how long it intended to hold power but called on the people and the international community to support its actions. A UN official in Dakar said Niger needs a stable government to address the food crisis, and urged the new military junta to move swiftly to set elections.

In Chad, drought has led to a 35 percent fall in crop production leading to severe food shortages. The rate of global acute malnutrition for children under five in the worst-affected areas stands at almost 30 percent - almost double the emergency threshold set by the World Health Organisation. The UN is transporting 30,000 tonnes of food aid into the country from its regional supply base in Cameroon, but says tackling malnutrition will be difficult due to a shortage of human resources and functioning rural health facilities. They are calling on NGOs to increase their number of personnel who can intervene on the ground.

In Niger the approaching food crisis has prompted the UN and NGO partners to issue an appeal for aid internationally. Malek Triki, public information officer for the World Food Program said Niger is facing a structural state of high acute malnutrition and has one of the highest rates of population increase in the world. “It also has a harsh environment, made even worse by climate change and the poor management of environmental resources,” he said. The situation is similar to the 2005 famine though the chaos over the coup is unlikely to help relief efforts.

Both Niger and Chad are in the Sahel desert region which faces perennial food shortages due to unpredictable rains that can cut into crop yields and the region's poverty has been aggravated by various rebel conflicts. The weather in the Sahel is influenced by the erratic behaviour of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (similar to the El Nino Southern Oscillation that causes such havoc with weather patterns in the South Pacific). Both Niger and Chad had an unusually short rainy season in 2009 leading to fears for this year’s crop.

Both Niger and Chad are already near the bottom of the UN Human Development Index, a composite benchmark that includes literacy rates, life expectancy and economic wealth measures. Chad is ranked 175 and Niger is ranked rock bottom at 182. Niger’s life expectancy is just 50.8 years (Australia’s is 81.4), just 28.7 percent of people over 15 are literate and the per capita GDP is $627 (Australia’s is $34,923 with Liechtenstein the world’s highest at $85, 382). Chad’s figures aren’t much better. Life expectancy is actually worse than Niger’s at just 48.6 years. Adult literacy is 31.8 percent and GDP per capita is $1,477.

Chad’s problems have been exacerbated in recent years by an influx of refugees fleeing the fighting in neighbouring Darfur. Tensions between ethnic groups in the north and in the south of the country have further contributed to political and economic instability. Niger is still recovering from the 2005 famine with child malnutrition a critical issue. Agriculture is the mainstay of Niger’s weak economy, with 82 percent of the population relying on farming. Its story is one of entrenched and deepening poverty with little interest or attention from the outside world.