Mitt Romney and the meaning of Iowa

There have been two notable trains of thought regarding the Republican Iowa caucuses this week. The first is the saturation media coverage of what is the 2012 presidential race’s first meaningful contest. The second is that the media coverage is overblown and gives undue credit to a relatively unimportant event. The doings of a few hundred people in middle America has devoured television time, web pages and column inches while the impasse over the straits of Hormuz goes almost unrecognised. (photo: Reuters)

The truth is as always, somewhere in the middle. Barack Obama won the Democratic Caucus in Iowa in 2008, setting himself up for a surprise win over Hillary Clinton. On the Republican side winner Mike Huckabee pushed hard for nomination but was eventually beaten by John McCain who finished fourth in Iowa with just 13%. The importance of Iowa is not necessarily to win, though Obama showed it was handy enough, but to survive. Anything over 10% gives delegates a second chance.

The fact the caucus finished in “near deadlock” with Romney ahead of Santorum by eight votes will be of small value by the time of the GOP convention. Despite being first to vote, Iowa is last to decide. The Iowa caucuses are town meetings or “gatherings of neighbours” that have a straw vote to elect delegates to a county convention. The state convention is one of the last in the country. Iowa elects just 25 Republican delegates to National Convention, just one percent of the total. But Iowa garners a lot more than one percent in energy of candidates and media time.

2012 third place getter Ron Paul said his 21% was a good showing which “kept him in the race”. But last placed Michelle Bachman realised that the five percent of Iowans that cast votes for her was not enough to launch a nationwide campaign on and she quit immediately. “Last night the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice and so I have decided to stand aside,” she said.

Texan Governor Rick Perry is also on the ropes after his 10 percent showing. There were rumours he too would quit but he said he intends to fight on. "We're going to give the people of South Carolina, New Hampshire and America a choice in this election, and that's what this process is all about," he said. He said his opponents were all Washington insiders whose fault the country was “broken” and they needed an outsider like him as an alternative.

It may be wishful thinking but Perry has deep pockets and can afford one bad and possibly two bad results. It was significant Perry pushed South Carolina ahead of New Hampshire suggesting even a bad result in the northern state would not dislodge him from the race ahead of the bellwether South Carolina race – which has elected every successful Republican candidate since 1960. The South Carolina Primary is on 21 January so Perry has just over two weeks to go for broke. Newt Gingrich, with 13%, is in strife too with little money and just five days to overtake Romney in New Hampshire.

While Paul pronounced himself satisfied, Rick Santorum will be delighted. The oft-quoted reason is that of “momentum” leading into the New Hampshire Primary and the following states. Santorum’s close second place was a result of spending a lot of time in Iowa, and he will now attract a bigger buzz and more money. But it is unlikely he will not have the time to recreate his strategy and equally important, the space from the media, to perform like this in New Hampshire. The neologism “Santorum” is likely to become a crippling issue too if he continues to do well.

What Iowa really told us is this year’s Republican presidential nominee is likely to be the frontrunner Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor is the one candidate Obama might struggle to beat and he did lead Obama in the polls on several occasions during in 2011. In his favour is the fact he is telegenic and considered to be a party moderate and he can berate Obama over managing the US into a possible double-dip recession.

The charge labelled by Ron Paul in 2008, that Romney was a flip-flopper is also losing its relevance in 2012. Voters can see he changes his mind alright, but just that so does everyone else and when the facts change, what else do you do? Romney is still a classic Republican in favour of Reaganomics and cutting taxes to promote growth.

The big question is whether America is ready to elect a Mormon as their president. Mormons themselves preferred Jon Huntsman as their candidate which is likely to be a positive to Romney. Most Americans look uneasily at their missionary tradition and the close Church-State relations in Utah. Romney’s east coast ties keeps him away from any Salt Lake City baggage, though he did lead the 2002 Winter Olympics organising committee and turned a potential fiasco into a success.

Romney underplays his religion and is also at pains to stress the commonality of Mormonism to mainstream Christianity. But writing in 2005 about his 2008 bid, Amy Sullivan said his religion was a political problem. Sullivan said one in five voters wouldn’t vote for a Mormon and while some of this was a “fuzzy sort of bias” it was real enough to be a problem. It could particularly be a problem with his own party’s evangelic base that have serious doctrinal issues with Mormonism’s claim as the fully realised strain of Christianity - the "latter-day saints." Keeping his religion out of the picture may yet be Romney’s biggest challenge as the year pans out.

The 300 days war rumbles on: McCain chooses moose mate

When I heard it on the radio news this morning, I thought John McCain had selected Michael Palin as his running mate. When I heard the female voice it was clear I was wrong (though I think the Yorkshire man would be a useful addition to any ticket). No, it wasn’t a stiff upper lipped Limey, instead it was the little-known Governor of Alaska and “mom of five” Sarah Palin that was now a good shot for the Vice Presidency. Andy Borowitz explained best McCain’s reasoning in his imagination of the senator’s own in-no-way defamatory words. "Let's say a constituent calls you and says that a caribou has wandered onto his front lawn," he said. "My friends, Barack Obama wouldn't know what to do."

But Sarah Palin would indeed know what to do. She’d shoot it. The 44 year old cleanskin and winner of the Miss Wasilla pageant must be a very formidable woman to get to be governor of a wildcat alpha male state like Alaska. Nevertheless, Palin is a long shot; but interestingly now, the Republican package is a good mirror image of the Democrats one as this long electoral war of attrition nears its end.

The war is taking its toll on all the players. Obama has lost his near impregnable lead over the last few months and is hoping the Clinton fairie dust works its magic after the Democratic Convention. The elephants are slowly clawing their way into the contest as John McCain seems most intent on provided nothing more exciting than an error-free campaign. Perhaps the biggest error is the name at the top of the ticket. McCain is barely tolerated in the Republicans and may not even be the best candidate in his family. The UK Independent asks why isn’t Cindy McCain’s name the one on the ticket?

Of course, the rest of the media ran with glee the offering about the McCain’s inability to remember how many houses they have (ten, apparently), the donkeys hee-hawed in Denver. This was an important moment. The fourth anniversary of Obama’s coming out speech at the 2004 convention. This time round, he set a TV record as 38 million people watched what he had to say. That was more than watched the Olympics or American Idol. And well more than ten million up on either Bush or Kerry in 2004.

The four-night Democrat convention ranks as the most-watched convention of either party since ratings began watching Kennedy and Nixon in 1960. The party had rejoiced in the But while American were happy to watch the asses in action last week, the elephants outside the room were being ignored. The Grand Old Party’s convention begins Monday in Minneapolis Saint Paul (Actually its in the state capital Saint Paul, but its Minnesota twin city Minneapolis, like the elephants, must always be mentioned in dispatches).

There is talk that the start may be delayed if Hurricane Gustav strikes New Orleans. Apart from the potentially embarrassing memories of Katrina, profit-driven media units are full stretch to cover two major stories in the same timeframe. The Republicans are worried that their precious news time will be stolen by all those great pictures of heavy seas and rooves coming clean off. Hence the move to announce Palin early. The sheer novelty value alone will eat bandwidth, broadcasting spectrum and column inches for the whole weekend until the storm hits, as well as killing off the buzz created by Obama’s own convention speech.

Nonetheless it is important to consider what this black-and-white scion Barack Obama had to say. He began by reminding his audience of the speech he made four years earlier. This was the story about “the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren't well-off or well-known.” The product of that union described the promise that set the US apart. Apart from what, he didn’t say. But the promise involved “individual dreams (that) still come together as one American family”.

Obama claimed we were in a defining moment – “a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.” He claimed to speak for the unemployed, suffering home owners, those with credit card bills, and the poorly educated. While Obama said Bush was not to blame for all these people’s predicament, he said their lack of decency, generosity and compassion mean that America had to show it was “better than these last eight years”.

Many wonder whether Obama has the capability to match the fervour of his words. His extraordinary ratings numbers alone suggest this is a phenomenon that will be rewarded with victory in November. His voting record as a federal and an Illinois legislator shows him comfortably in the Democratic mainstream of sympathy for lower-income people. He has voted against Arctic and Gulf drilling and also against Bush’s choice for Chief Justice John Roberts. Obama was sceptical about Roberts’s deepest values and his “broader perspectives on how the world works” and his empathy. Why? “He has far more often used his formidable skills on behalf of the strong in opposition to the weak,” said Obama. Come November we will finally see who Obama’s own formidable skills will be used for.

Donkeys demolish elephants

The US ended its love affair with the Grand Old Party yesterday and handed the House to the Democrats in the mid-term elections. The Senate remains up for grabs with President Bush looking an increasingly isolated figure in his remaining two years in office. The fallout was immediate with Bush announcing the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. His replacement is 63 year old Robert Gates, Bush family friend and CIA director under Bush senior.

The senate race is particularly tight. At the time of writing, 99 of the 100 seats have been decided. 50 of these are Democrats (including two independents Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman and Vermont’s Bernie Sanders who will vote Democrat on caucus issues) and the other 49 are Republican. The one undecided seat is in Virginia. Democratic challenger Jim Webb holds a slight lead over incumbent Republican George Allen. The closeness of the vote means the final result may not be known until 27 November. At the moment Webb leads by 8,000 out of more than 2.3 million votes cast. Webb claimed victory last night but Allen refused today to concede. An Allen campaign adviser refused to say if the Republican candidate would ask for a recount if he loses. Under Virginia law, he will have 10 days after 27 November to ask for a recount. If a recount reverses Webb's apparent victory, the Senate would be split 50-50, leaving Vice President Dick Cheney with the deciding vote for Republicans.

The margin in the House of Representatives was more emphatic and gives the Democrats control of the House for the first time in 12 years. As reps are elected for just two years, all 435 seats were up for grabs. The Democrats needed to win 17 seats to take control and as of Wednesday (US time) appear to have gained 27 additional seats. The Republicans are heading for a net loss of 26 seats. The last seat to changes hands was from the House’s only independent to the Democrats. The main factors for the Democrat win were the public anger over the conduct of the war in Iraq as well as scandals that engulfed a number of high profile Republicans in recent months. Seats held by troubled ex-senators Tom DeLay, Bob Ney and Mark Foley all fell to the Democrats.

Aided by public dissatisfaction with President Bush, Democrats won gubernatorial races in New York, Ohio and Massachusetts for the first time in more than a decade, and also won in Colorado, Maryland and Arkansas. Several GOP officials said they expected outgoing Illinois Speaker Dennis Hastert to step down as party leader and possibly even retire from Congress. Massachusetts elected its first African-American governor and first Democratic governor in 16 years, Governor-elect Deval Patrick. And for the first time in over 50 years, Maryland voters unseated an incumbent governor. 36 governorships were decided this year and post election, 28 of the 50 states now have Democrat governors. Arnold Schwarzenegger bucked the trend and was one of the few high profile GOP successes. Although the Democrats hold both senate seats in California, Schwarzenegger easily accounted for his Democrat rival winning by 15%. His success is based on a recent conversion to consensual politics. He has impressed this year by enacting greenhouse gas-cutting legislation and by increasing the minimum wage. Meanwhile Hillary Clinton also easily secured re-election as New York senator heightening speculation about her as yet undeclared bid for the White House in 2008.

A less high profile woman, Nancy Pelosi, is the new Speaker of the House. She is the first woman to ever hold the role. The 66-year-old mother of five has served as representative for San Francisco since 1987, and became House minority leader in 2002. Pelosi learned her politics early in life - her father was a congressman for Maryland and also served as mayor of Baltimore. She is also independently wealthy; her husband Paul made a fortune of $25 million from portfolio and property investments. Her wealth has enabled her to finance other Democrats’ campaigns. In return she has demanded discipline and loyalty. Her relationship with Bush will be critical to their mutual fortunes over the next two years. Their relationship to date has been marked by mutual disdain. Bush regards her as a high taxing Democrat and Pelosi is on record describing Bush as an incompetent leader.

Incompetent or not, Bush bowed to the inevitable yesterday and announced the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld was one of the key architects of the Iraq war. Congress members welcomed his departure as a sign that Bush is open to new ideas on Iraq. Critics said the outgoing defense secretary ignored advice from his generals, encouraged the abuse of war captives and failed to develop a credible post-war plan. Delaware Democrat Senator Joseph Biden hailed the resignation as a “death knell of the neo-conservative approach”. In contrast to Rumsfeld, his replacement Bob Gates is considered to be pragmatic and a foreign policy realist. The appointment is likely to lead to a more conciliatory approach on Iraq and the first step towards a phased withdrawal of US forces.

Political analysts are still digesting the consequences of a Democrat controlled Capitol Hill. Nancy Pelosi has said her priorities will include a higher minimum wage, the promotion of stem-cell research and a push to enact the recommendations of the September 11 congressional report. She and the president will now have to learn to live together; any legislation passed by a Democratic House will need Bush's signature. And with Pelosi controlling the House, he will need her agreement to get a subject on to the political agenda. At this stage, no one can say if the result will be consensus or gridlock.