Morgan Tsvangirai appointed Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister

In an extraordinary ceremony in Harare yesterday, long-term tyrant Robert Mugabe swore in his biggest enemy Morgan Tsvangirai as Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister. The deal got the go-ahead last week after months of negotiations over power sharing and a disputed presidential election that saw Mugabe steal victory earlier in the year. While many observers believe Tsvangirai is dancing with the devil, the new Prime Minister knows he will have more power to change the system from the inside than from the outside.

The swearing-in ceremony began with the pair shaking hands. Then Tsvangirai raised his right hand and pledged an oath where he promised to be faithful to Zimbabwe, observe its laws and serve it well. The two rival leaders then signed papers and shook hands again to complete a grim-faced encounter. Two deputy prime ministers were also sworn in. They were Thokozani Khupe, Tsvangirai’s deputy and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a breakaway faction from Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party.

But outwardly Mugabe remains the master and immediately used his power to prevent the new Prime Minister from getting promised air time on Zimbabwean state TV after taking the oath. Nevertheless, the day belonged to Morgan Tsvangirai. After the ceremony was complete, Tsvangirai was quick to thank his supporters. He addressed an ecstatic 10,000 strong crowd at the Harare Agricultural Show Grounds and laid out his priorities for the restoration of democracy. These included the release of political prisoners, tackling the humanitarian crisis, especially the nation’s chronic cholera epidemic, and stabilising an economy that has led to 94 percent unemployment and a worthless national currency worthless. The Zimbabwean people "face many challenges but we are brave and resourceful," he said. "By uniting as a nation and a people we can succeed.”

What Tsvangirai did not mention is what he must have given away to get some power from Mugabe. The British Government is among many who doubt the workability of the new arrangement. The main concern is the extent of Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party control over the machinery of government and the security services. This became immediately apparent in the television incident as Tsvangirai was prevented from doing a national address after taking the oath. Lord Malloch Brown, the foreign office minister responsible for Africa, said "We're sceptical but we've got to try and help this work."

Tsvangirai also felt the need to re-assure the sceptics. On the eve of his swearing-in he said the doubters needed to understand why he accepted the post and what he thought were the challenges of transition. "We have made this decision and we made it without being forced. We want our colleagues in the country and outside the country to approach it from that perspective,” he said. “It is our decision. Let history be the judge of this decision.”

But he also cautioned that it would take time to rebuild the country. His MDC party has been given the key ministries of finance and as well as co-sharing home affairs and health after the four month long haggling over cabinet positions. Geoffrey Hawker, an Africa expert at Macquarie University in Australia, told Al Jazeera he does not expect the gamble to succeed though he admitted Tsvangirai had little choice but to accept the terms. "He's been outside the tent for such a long time ... his supporters are growing very dispirited," Hawker said. "I don't have any doubt at all that Mugabe is going to bide his time and see if he can cut him off, render him powerless ... so that Mugabe remains in control”.

There are also genuine questions whether Mugabe holds the reins of control at all. In June 2008, there were reports that a Joint Operations Command (JOC) had taken de facto power leaving Mugabe to be a figurehead. The most powerful figure in the junta is General Constantine Chiwenga, Zimbabwe's overall military chief. Chiwenga has been suspiciously quiet in the run-up to Tsvangirai’s accession to power. He was last heard from in January when the Angolan press reported him saying his troops would fight off any international peacekeeping force that might be sent to the country.

While Mugabe keeps the outward reins on power, his influence is likely to diminish as new actors take to the Zimbabwean stage. How Tsvangirai deals with the JOC and the unpredictable Chiwenga will prove the key challenge. He will need the full support of his party and key foreign actors including the UK Government. The detractors are right to be sceptical and Mugabe has form. But today's event is a good symbolic start towards the healing of Zimbabwe.

Mugabe replaced by junta as Zimbabwe plunges further into despair

A Zimbabwean court has overruled a police move to ban opposition rallies in advance of the forthcoming presidential run-off election between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai. The decision came after police denied authorisation last week to Tsvangirai’s MDC (Movement for Democratic Change) party to stage rallies in Zimbabwean townships on the specious grounds of ‘assassination threats’. The MDC then filed papers with the High Court in Harare. On Saturday an MDC lawyer announced that the court had ordered the rallies be allowed and that the police should not interrupt them.

This is one of rare pieces of good news for the MDC as it faces massive hurdles to overcome Mugabe’s state apparatus in the 27 June election. Tsvangirai was arrested twice last week; most recently on Friday when he was stopped at a roadblock as he was on his way to a regularly scheduled rally. He was taken to a police station and was released after 2½ hours. In both arrests Tsvangirai was accused by police of threatening public security by addressing a gathering without prior authorisation. This low-level harassment has impacted the entire campaign since Tsvangirai returned to the country three weeks ago. “We've noticed that it's going to be a common trend in this campaign,” said his spokesman George Sibotshiwe. “Obviously the government…are trying to prevent him from going about his campaign freely and peacefully.”

Tsvangirai and his party have been victims of systematic violence since the first election in March. A scathing new report from Human Rights Watch called “Bullets for Each of You” (pdf) now presents compelling evidence to support the obvious conclusion that the campaign is aimed at ensuring Mugabe wins the run-off election. The violence has claimed thousands of victims as both national and local government authorities systematically and methodically targets both MDC activists and the party's perceived supporters.

The violence has been particularly concentrated in former rural strongholds of Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). These areas turned their back on their traditional party to vote for the Tsvangirai and the MDC in the parliamentary and first-round presidential elections. In government and top military circles the campaign has been called “Operation Where Did You Put Your Cross?” The administration has been using independence war veterans to beat, torture and mutilate people as well as burn down their homes for “voting incorrectly” in the first election.

HRW now say that if current conditions are maintained, there is no possibility of a credible, free and fair poll. “Time has nearly run out for Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU),” it says, “to make the necessary political interventions to end the violence and ensure a free and fair vote.” They say the violence is orchestrated at the highest levels of government (known as “Joint Operations Command”) which includes senior ZANU-PF officials as well as the heads of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, police, prison services, and the Central Intelligence Organisation.

The report also confirms the report of a “senior western diplomat” that the Joint Operations Command (JOC) has taken de facto power in Zimbabwe reducing Mugabe to a mere figurehead. The unnamed source told Britain’s Daily Telegraph last week that a small circle of "securocrats", who sit atop the JOC committee, are now in day-to-day charge of the country. The most powerful figures in the new junta are General Constantine Chiwenga, the overall military chief; followed by police commissioner Augustine Chihuri and prison service commander General Paradzai Zimondi. The source said Mugabe remains a useful figurehead to parade in front of African leaders but had no real power left. "This is a military coup by stealth," he said. "There are no tanks on people's lawns, but the Joint Operations Command runs this country."

The absence of tanks on lawns does not disguise the fact that the country is in deep crisis. Zimbabwe is an economic as well as political shambles. The currency has depreciated by about 84 percent since the central bank floated it in early May after years of an official peg. On Thursday the Zimbabwean dollar plunged to a new record low, trading at an average 1 billion to the US dollar. The rapid weakening of the currency was caused by inflation expectations and a huge demand for hard currencies. The latest move triggered further massive price increases. Prices of basic goods, most of which are now imported, have gone up sharply since the disputed March 29 election. A loaf of bread cost Z$15 million before the polls but now costs about Z$600 million. And the army has warned off its population of change occurring any time soon. “If you vote for MDC in the presidential runoff election,” said soldiers addressing villagers at one meeting, “you have seen the bullets, we have enough for each one of you, so beware.”